COVID-19 and Labor Markets in Southeast Asia: Impacts on Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam

By Asian Development Bank

This report examines the impacts of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on labor markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Labor markets in Southeast Asia were particularly hit hard in 2020, when government containment measures were most severe. COVID-19 has exacerbated growing inequalities in the region—hurting not just low-skilled workers but also middle-skilled workers whose jobs were already at risk from automation even before the pandemic. Large gaps in social protection coverage were also exposed. While the policy response has been significant, a narrowing fiscal space and the protracted nature of the pandemic still pose major challenges for recovery. The report aims to help policymakers identify priorities, constraints, and opportunities for developing effective labor market strategies for economic recovery and beyond.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Asian Development Bank
• Release date: Dec 1, 2021
• ISBN: 9789292692513

Book preview

COVID-19 AND LABOR MARKETS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

IMPACTS ON INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, THE PHILIPPINES, THAILAND, AND VIET NAM

DECEMBER 2021

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

© 2021 Asian Development Bank

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Some rights reserved. Published in 2021.

ISBN 978-92-9269-250-6 (print); 978-92-9269-251-3 (electronic); 978-92-9269-252-0 (ebook)

Publication Stock No. TCS210508-2

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS210508-2

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Notes:

In this publication, $ refers to United States dollars.

ADB recognizes Vietnam as Viet Nam.

On the cover: The COVID-19 pandemic had differential impacts across demographic groups, occupational and skill-level categories, and firms and businesses. Various groups were particularly vulnerable to the crisis because of the nature of their work, type of working arrangements, and other factors like migration status.

Cover design by Michael Cortes.

Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Foreword

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has had a devastating impact on labor markets worldwide, including in Southeast Asia. For countries covered by this study—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam—this has been a crisis like no other.

At the outset of the pandemic in 2020, these countries managed to contain the virus relatively well, with some heterogeneity in their response. All countries implemented strict containment measures including lockdowns, workplace closures, and mobility and travel restrictions. While playing a crucial role in mitigating the health impacts, these measures however had important repercussions on labor markets. The high level of integration of these countries in the global economy meant that, in addition to domestic factors, international demand fluctuations and supply chain disruptions were also key channels through which the pandemic affected jobs and incomes in the region.

As mobility restrictions and workplace closures prevented labor reallocation—across sectors, from wage employment to self-employment, or from formal to informal employment—unemployment rates initially surged in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, and to a lesser extent in Viet Nam as well, while many other displaced workers exited the labor force. Job losses understate the true impact of the pandemic, however, because of major reductions in working hours and incomes for those employed. As economies reopened in the second half of 2020, the recovery of formal wage employment lagged behind that of informal work and self-employment. Young workers suffered a disproportionate amount of job losses, and women were more likely to exit the labor force following job loss than men. The crisis exacerbated growing inequalities in the region along the skills dimension, hurting low-skilled workers, but also middle-skilled workers whose jobs are already at risk from automation.

As the labor market impacts of COVID-19 across Southeast Asia have been unprecedented, so was the governments’ response. Social assistance measures made up the lion’s share of social protection response in these countries. The pandemic exposed significant social protection gaps associated with high and persistent informality across the region. It also provided an opportunity for countries to address these gaps and expand coverage to new beneficiaries and previously excluded groups. As recovery sets in, the focus of fiscal policy can shift more strongly from relief to stimulus, and from stimulus to structural investments that would promote sustained and inclusive growth.

Just as the prospects of a recovery seemed favorable by the end of 2020 in some countries, Southeast Asia suffered a major setback in 2021, as the Delta variant of the virus wreaked havoc against a backdrop of slow vaccine rollout. The crisis is not over. At the time of writing of this report, newly identified variants of COVID-19 such as the Omicron are spreading through the world,