By The Numbers: How 12 NBA Greats Compare Across Eras

By Kevin Tolliver

Every day on TV there is the debate on who is the Greatest of All Time. On Facebook whenever anyone posts anything about LeBron, that is instantly met with hate and reminder of his Finals record. Whenever anyone posts anything about MJ, it is instantly met the lack of athleticism of the era in which he played.

The truth is no one has ever defined what it means to be the Greatest of All Time. Because no one has, there is no clear answer for who it is.

This book makes differing arguments for multiple players based on differing definitions. This books explores what the numbers say, accounting and adjusting for different eras. Some of the analyses are straightforward, some of them are complex, but all of the results are data driven.

Along the way, I teach some statistical concepts and cover basketball advanced statistics (sabermetrics reinterpreted for basketball). I encourage differing opinions. I hope this book appeals to different readers for different reasons.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Jun 24, 2021
• ISBN: 9781664179905

Book preview

Copyright © 2021 by KEVIN TOLLIVER.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright owner.

Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Getty Images are models, and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

Certain stock imagery © Getty Images.

Rev. date: 06/23/2021

Xlibris

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CONTENTS

Acknowledgments

Introduction

1 Background

2 The Greatest of All Time is

The Player with The Largest Resumé

3 The Greatest of All Time is

The Player with The Most Statistical Contributions

4 The Greatest of All Time is

The All-Time Most Valuable Player,

5 The Greatest of All Time is

The Greatest Individual Player

6 The Greatest of All Time is

The Greatest Team Player

7 The Greatest of All Time is

The Greatest Champion

8 The Greatest of All Time is

The Greatest Basketball Athlete

9 The Greatest of All Time is

The Greatest Basketball Talent

Conclusion

Afterword

Glossary

References

About The Author

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would love to thank my wonderful wife, Melinda Tolliver, who despite us both having full-time jobs and us raising a newborn while working from home, still supported me in taking on this project that I have wanted to do for years. She also served as my copyeditor. I’d also want to acknowledge ESPN senior writer André Snelling. He was the first to review this book and introduced me to Backpicks.com. I’d like to thank Justin Smith for taking the time out to read and review my book. I would love to thank Monique Tondato who is responsible for the artwork.

INTRODUCTION

Like many during the COVID-19 pandemic that struck the world in early 2020, I felt starved for NBA action after the postponement of the 2019–20 season. In my time of need, I turned to watching old 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s games on YouTube. When they announced that The Last Dance was being pushed up to April from June, it was the greatest moment during the otherwise basketball-less time. Seriously, Sundays at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time became the highlight of my week. Then in the week following an episode, turning on The Jump and other shows to hear them debate if MJ or LeBron is the so-phrased Greatest of All Time was my weekly pastime. Meanwhile, ESPN released their list of the top 74 players of all time to celebrate the NBA at seventy-four. Now, with LeBron James winning his fourth title the debate, talks have started again.

This got me thinking, what do we mean when we say the greatest of all time? Part of the reason for the debate is there is no clear definition of greatest. I hear all the time, Mike is the greatest because he had that killer instinct and he has six rings, and LeBron is better because he will have more NBA achievements. From my eyeball test, either one of them can do whatever they want on the court. Both of them torched any team I was rooting for. So I ask, what do we mean when we say the greatest of all time?

This also has me thinking about what is meant by of all time? The game has evolved so much since the NBA first started over seventy-five years ago. This was incredibly apparent during my rewatch fascination I referenced earlier. When I first turned on a game from the sixties, it was hard to watch because it looked almost unfamiliar. When I watched more closely and got used to the change of pace, I noticed how the players adjusted their talents to fit the game and the many differences in how the game was officiated. Every now and then you get a peek of what those players could really do, but then a travel or a foul is called. Michael Jordan has gone on record saying, I never had the chance to compete against other legends prior to me. (Bieler 2019).

This book defines greatness in the context of the greatest of all time in NBA history uses known information from across the years and determines a methodology to answer the question once and for all of who is truly the greatest of all time.

Some of the analyses are straightforward and some are complex, but I can promise you that every result is data-driven. This book does not use well-established opinions and is not swayed by personal biases in the analysis. It does often use personal anecdotes and opinions to support the analysis. Some of the results may surprise you. They certainly surprised me. You also may not agree with all the results. I definitely didn’t want to. Fortunately or unfortunately, the data is what the data is. The goal is to have the most objective way of answering the question of the NBA’s greatest.

The book also serves as an equalizer across time. Wilt Chamberlain, who is most remembered for averaging 50 points per game (PPG) in a season in which he scored 100 points in a single game, once said (though it sounds jokingly) that he would score 65–70 PPG in the 1997 era of basketball, (Martinez 2020). Could he have done it? Not likely. Though the more physical game and increased isolation of 1997 does play to his strengths, literally and figuratively. Wilt shot 39.5 of 111.6 field goals attempted (FGA) per game the season he got 50 PPG, the team with the highest number of FGA attempts in ’97 was the New Jersey Nets with 86.5 FGA. So having 60 or 70 PPG in 1997 would require him likely taking more than half of a team’s shots.

David Falk, Michael Jordan’s agent, claimed that he would score between 50 and 60 points in today’s game. Could he have done it? Again, unlikely. Jordan might have learned to shoot threes earlier in his career if he played in our current era, and all the spacing would be a playground for him. But no one in the modern era plays 40 minutes per game (MPG). In order for him to score that much night in and night out, he would need to score around 1.5 points per minute.

What would today’s top scorer James Harden do in earlier eras? No one knows for sure. There are not many coaches that would let him shoot twenty twenty-five-foot jump shots in a game (even if they are more points). That would create a need for him to drive more frequently, likely dropping his scoring average. Depending on which era we are talking about, the pace might be considerably slower, also dropping his scoring average. At the same time, he may play more minutes and get more opportunities.

This book takes these conundrums into consideration before making any type of comparison. In that same interview referenced earlier, Michael Jordan says when comparing eras, I cringe a little bit because it’s a little embarrassing because no one knows. This is certainly true. For all of the analysis this book displays, it’s still conjecture. No one will ever truly know.

Now, let’s revisit that question that made you pick up this book: What do we mean by greatest of all time? Do you mean:

1. greatest NBA resumé?

2. greatest individual producer?

3. most valuable player?

4. best individual?

5. best teammate?

6. best champion?

7. best basketball athlete?

8. most versatile?

This book will go through each of these arguments in an attempt to crown one player as the true greatest of all time in NBA history.

There is one thing I cannot emphasize enough. When it comes to statistical inference, assumptions are key. If you do not agree with the assumptions laid out in each chapter, you may not agree with the outcomes.

This work uses sabermetrics (a term coined as the empirical analysis of baseball) reinterpreted for basketball, regression analyses, and creates new advanced statistics to answer our main question. I hope you as the reader find this book educational. I spent four years as a teaching assistant while I was pursuing my doctorate in statistics. When I walk through the analysis, I try to explain it as if I were speaking to my class. That said, I understand that similar to a classroom setting, the statistics discussed in these pages may be elementary to some and advanced to others.

I designed this book to be a quick and easy read, as well as accessible to the large population who are not deeply familiar with statistics. I do not go into heavy detail as I cover these topics, but I go into enough detail to explain how I get to the result. My hope is that people may pick up this book and come away with additional insight into statistical inference and maybe even a desire to pursue statistics further. On the other end of the spectrum, I hope anyone who is very familiar with statistics and NBA analytics reads this and thinks, This is a different way of thinking about which player is actually the greatest. I hope everyone can take something away.

This book, or my interest in the topic, does not stand alone. There are many great analyses out there on this particular topic and similar ones. I refer you to Ben Taylor (Taylor 2017), who has done some of the most in-depth breakdowns that I have read, and ESPN senior writer Kevin Pelton (2016)—both of which are different from my analyses. Where they align may really solidify a player’s place on the greatest-of-all-time rap sheet. Where they differ, creates more room for debate.

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Background

This book profiles twelve of the NBA’s greatest players in its seventy-five-year history.

These twelve players are strategically selected to profile the two largest names in the NBA during the decades of the sixties, seventies, eighties, nineties, 2000s, 2010s. Sorry Bob Petit and George Mikan lovers, late forties and early fifties are not included because of the lack of data and footage.

Here are our candidates for the greatest of all time:

Bill Russell (BR)

Bill Russell started his NBA career in 1956, but it was his Celtic teams that defined NBA of the sixties. Bill Russell is considered by many to be the greatest winner of all time, not just in basketball, but in all sports. He won eleven NBA championships in thirteen seasons. Not only that, but he led his University of San Francisco team to two NCAA titles and won a gold medal in the Olympics. He was a dominant defensive force, leaving other teams at a loss.

In a 2018 interview with The Undefeated, Kobe Bryant talked about what Bill Russell told him, I can score the ball, I can handle the ball, I can pass the ball. What’s really important in order for us to win is to look at teammates and say ‘Okay there are other players who do that better. Therefore, I must allow them to do that, and what I do best is defend and rebound. So I am going to completely focus on that’ (The Undefeated 2018).

Wilt Chamberlain (WC)

As impressive as eleven championships in thirteen years sounds, scoring 100 points per game (PPG) or averaging 50 PPG for a season is equally impressive. There has been no other force that could dominate scoring like Wilt Chamberlain. In the modern era of NBA, someone scoring 50 makes headlines while Wilt scored 50 PPG 118 times in his career. Even more impressive, the next highest is Michel Jordan who scored 50 PPG only 31 times.

Midway through his career, he made the decision to not be the dominant scorer and became more of a facilitator. Doing so, he became the first and only center to lead the league in assists. He also dominated the boards, once grabbing 55 rebounds in a game and averaging more than 22 rebounds in his career.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (KA)

As Bill Russell’s and Wilt Chamberlain’s careers neared the end, the NBA looked toward their next titan, a seven-feet-two-inch center, born Lou Alcindor. His length made him a dominant shot blocker. On offense, his post-moves and signature skyhook shot made him nearly unguardable. He dominated the 1970s NBA, winning five MVPs and one title.

He continued to play another decade’s worth of games in the eighties. Though taking on a smaller role, he won another MVP and five more titles, giving him six MVPs and six titles.

Julius Erving (JE)

This superstar was initially drafted by the Milwaukee Bucks. Can you imagine a team with him, Abdul-Jabbar, and Oscar Robertson? He chose to go a different route and the NBA would not be the game it is today if it were not for a rival league that came along in the 1970s.

While Abdul-Jabbar was tearing up the NBA, Julius Erving a.k.a. Dr. J became the face of the American Basketball Association (ABA). This league brought us three-pointers and the flashy play that many have come to know and love. Dr. J filled up the box score in all major statistical categories, winning two championships and bringing an aerial assault the game had not seen before. After his first five seasons in the league, the ABA merged with the NBA, and The Doctor became