Terrorism Futures: Evolving Technology and Ttps Use

By Dr. Robert J. Bunker and Rohan Gunaratna

The Terrorism Futures: Evolving Technology and TTPs Use pocketbook is derived from a series of nine essays written by the author between December 2014 and June 2017 for TRENDS Research & Advisory, Abu Dhabi, UAE. With subsequent organizational and website changes at TRENDS a majority of these essays are no longer accessible via the present iteration of the entity’s website. In order to preserve this collection of forward-thinking counterterrorism writings, the author has elected to publish them as a C/O Futures pocketbook with the inclusion of new front and back essays and a foreword by Rohan Gunaratna. Technologies and TTPs analyzed include virtual martyrdom, IED drones, disruptive targeting, fifth dimensional battlespace, close to the body bombs, body cavity bombs, counter-optical lasers, homemade firearms, printed firearms, remote controlled firearms, social media bots, AI text generators, AVBIEDs, and FPS/live streaming attacks.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Xlibris US
• Release date: Oct 27, 2020
• ISBN: 9781664137806

Dr. Robert J. Bunker

Dr. Robert J. Bunker is the director of research and analysis of C/O Futures, LLC and a managing partner. An international security and counterterrorism professional, he was Futurist in Residence at the Behavioral Science Unit (BSU) at the Federal Bureau of Investigation Academy in Quantico, VA, Minerva Chair at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, and has taught at American Military University, California State University San Bernardino, Claremont Graduate University, and the University of Southern California. Dr. Bunker holds degrees in the fields of history, anthropology-geography, social science, behavioral science, government, and political science and has trained extensively in counterterrorism and counternarcotics. He has also delivered hundreds of presentations—including U.S. congressional testimony—with well over 500 publications across various fields and formats. He can be reached at [e-mail], @DocBunker.

Book preview

Copyright © 2020 by Robert J. Bunker and C/O Futures, LLC.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright owner.

The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

Rev. date: 10/26/2020

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CONTENTS

About C/O Futures, LLC

Acronyms

Foreword: Terrorist Imagineering

Preface: Terrorism Futures

Essay 1 Virtual Martyrs—Jihadists, Oculus Rift, and IED Drones

Essay 2 Terrorism as Disruptive Targeting

Essay 3 Fifth Dimensional Battlespace— Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Implications

Essay 4 Close to the Body and Body Cavity Suicide Bombs

Essay 5 Use and Potentials of Counter-Optical Lasers in Riots and Terrorism

Image Gallery

Essay 6 Home Made, Printed, and Remote Controlled Firearms—Terrorism and Insurgency Implications

Essay 7 The Use of Social Media Bots and Automated (AI Based) Text Generators—Key Technologies in Winning the Propaganda War Against Islamic State/Daesh?

Essay 8 Daesh/IS Armored Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (AVBIEDs)—Insurgent Use and Terrorism Potentials

Essay 9 Laptop Bombs and Civil Aviation—Terrorism Potentials and Carry-On Travel Bans

Conclusion: Evolving Technology and TTPs Use

Additional Readings

The following essays originally appeared in:

Essay 1. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 14 December 2014, http://trendsinstitution.org/?p=762.

Essay 2. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 11 January 2015, http://trendsinstitution.org/?p=870.

Essay 3. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 10 February 2015, http://trendsinstitution.org/?p=1004.

Essay 4. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 18 March 2015, http://trendsinstitution.org/close-to-the-body-and-body-cavity-suicide-bombs/.

Essay 5. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 21 April 2015, http://trendsinstitution.org/?p=1110.

Essay 6. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 21 June 2015, http://trendsinstitution.org/?p=1250.

Essay 7. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 10 August 2015, http://trendsinstitution.org/?p=1358.

Essay 8. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 2 February 2016, http://trendsinstitution.org/?p=1692.

Essay 9. TRENDS Research & Advisory. Terrorism Futures Series. 14 June 2017, http://trendsinstitution.org/laptop-bombs-and-civil-aviation-terrorism-potentials-and-carry-on-travel-bans/.

About C/O Futures, LLC

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C/O Futures, LLC is a small business, located by the renowned Claremont Colleges consortium, that provides specialized research and analytical consulting services that facilitate client knowledge solutions for addressing future socio-political and operational environment shaping and response.

Our corporate mission is to further and protect liberal-democratic values and institutions—both public and private—in the face of disruptive systemic level change taking place during the transition from the modern to post-modern epochs of human civilization.

Our consulting services range from the tactical though the grand strategic levels of interactions. One major focus of these services pertains to the broadening spectrum of threat groups—ranging from more evolved forms of gangs though authoritarian regimes with increased global capacity—now actively challenging liberal-democratic governance both domestically and abroad. Other service areas concern technology and concepts, both individually and interactively. Residing at the tactical and operational levels, these areas seek to characterize generic and specific threat group utilization of technology (and the concepts supporting such use) as well as the novel use of standalone concepts and to develop countermeasures and defensive response protocols against them. Our services also facilitate capitalizing on advanced technology & concepts for policy and operational overmatch purposes.

Another client service area pertains to narratives vis-a-vis both constructed realities and cultural norms related to threat groups and the response for deradicalization and counter-narrative purposes. A final service area concerns the process and effects of epochal change pertaining to the national strategic through civilizational levels of global activities and interactions. All C/O Futures, LLC research is influenced through the lens of the epochal change construct developed in the later 1980s (by one of its principals) in order to preserve liberal-democratic values and institutions through the global civilizational transition period underway.

To view C/O Futures, LLC research products and strategic consultancy services see: https://www.cofutures.net.

Acronyms

Foreword

Terrorist Imagineering

Rohan Gunaratna

Singapore

7 October 2020

Understanding the Operating Environment

Like the invention of the atom bomb, explosives, and the machine gun changed warfare dramatically, terrorist inventions and innovations changed the global threat landscape forever. With the integration of human beings willing to kill and die in terrorism and guerrilla attacks, the nature of the threat changed. Today, the largest number of terrorist fatalities and casualties stem from suicide attacks, both vehicle- and human-borne. In the lead up to al Qaeda’s landmark attacks on September 11, 2001, I wrote of the emerging suicide threat in an article titled, Suicide Terrorism: A Global Threat, published in Jane’s Intelligence Review in April 2000. Some of my peers, who could not believe that people want to die killing others, claimed that I had exaggerated the threat. After the 9/11 attacks killed 2,977 people, the largest number of people to perish in one attack, there was shock and grief. There was also an acknowledgement that suicide terrorism is an apex security threat worldwide.

One of the foremost experts on terrorist invention and innovation, Robert Bunker examines how technological trends intersect with and influence future threats. Anyone reading Dr. Bunker’s study will also ask whether he has assessed the threat accurately. Forecasting threats, predicting trends and patterns, requires an appreciable understanding of the environment and a deep knowledge of threat entities. Having studied the evolving threat landscape for over two decades, Dr. Bunker seeks to address the American challenge. The 9/11 Commissioners described it as the failure of imagination. To stay ahead of the threat, national security practitioners and counter terrorism scholars grapple with this challenge every day.

How is Terrorism Changing?

Are threat groups still seeking to acquire Weapons of Mass Destruction and other sophisticated weapons, or are they devolving to a simpler tactical approach using bladed weapons and vehicles? The security and intelligence community is trying to determine if terrorist and other violent non-state actors are technophile radical innovators, seamlessly identifying and deploying new technologies to their cause or if they returning to a simpler tactical range. Have the security and intelligence services forced them to become cautious modifiers of existing technologies and lesser sophistication to lower their signature? The answer would seem obvious. Although there are exceptions, the world’s deadliest two movements, the Islamic State and al Qaeda, are radical innovators. They control territory and have access to intellectual and financial resources. These groups seek to undermine and destroy the existing socio-political system as well as existing social norms to advance their ends. Conversely, other analysts and scholars argue that terrorists and other violent non-state actors are conservative goal seeking maximisers, who adhere to well-known tactics, targets and procedures because they know what works. In general, violent non-state actors tend to