Survival Kit for Stressful Times

By Jackie Tan

SURVIVAL KIT examines these challenges and the fears and apprehension of countless millions who have lost hope that their governments/leaders can solve their everyday concerns. The book is both practical and devotional, with sensible and spiritual suggestions. There is strong emphasis on doctrine to help us understand the WHAT and WHY of the Christian faith, with special focus on the Second Coming of Christ. All in all, a survival kit for everyday use and for almost any situation.

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*Reviews for Survival Kit*

An excellent prophetic book that is spot on. A very timely read for those asking questions about End Time events. SURVIVAL KIT is really an appropriate title, a practical guide for living in these stressful times, culled from Jackie’s many years of life and ministry experiences. I congratulate her for this book is a legacy to this generation, so apt in these perilous and unpredictable times.

Pastor Kenneth Kang
Triumph in Christ, Penang

SURVIVAL KIT vividly describes the anxious and challenging times we live in today by giving an insightful expose of global problems. A versatile book indeed. It not only responds to problems from a Christian perspective, backed by Biblical references and examples, but also includes a useful section for ministry and counselling.

Charles Ooi
Trainer

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*Excerpts*

Chapter 1: A World in Crisis
Ten Global Problems
- Job Security, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution
- Global Economic Vulnerability and Global Financial Meltdown
- Civil Society, the Social Contract and rise of Populism
- Global Warming, Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters
- Overpopulation, Food Insecurity and Environmental Degradation
- War and Ethnic Conflicts, the rise of Terrorism and Immigration Backlash
- Corruption, the World Happiness Report and 1MDB
- A new Cold War (?), Geopolitics and Nuclear Risks
- Cybersecurity, Cybercrime and Scams
- Loneliness, Depression and Ageing

God is calling out a Remnant unto Himself (pp216, 220)
During every move of God, He seeks out individuals and groups of people who are set apart to fulfil His purposes for that generation. The Remnant refers to a continuous community (large or small) of God’s people who were or are spiritually preserved throughout various dispensations...Abraham’s descendants preserved from all attempts by the enemy to destroy them. Remnant believers make deliberate choices to obey God at all costs. They have boldness and courage, refusing to submit to the prevailing values and norms of society.
Are you a REMNANT believer? Would you be willing to partner Jesus Christ in the greatest adventure of your life, to be used by Him to change your generation and hasten His coming?

• Language: English
• Publisher: Jackie Tan
• Release date: Jun 14, 2021
• ISBN: 9789671401897

Jackie Tan

Jackie Tan is a 45 year veteran in the Lord, and has ministered in Malaysia, Singapore and abroad. She spent several years in the United States pursuing studies in Christian education and theology, and has served in pioneer and large churches, besides teaching in a Bible college. She has also been an English teacher, and almost considers English her first language!Survival Kit for Stressful Times and its companion volume God’s Salvation and Promises were written in obedience to the direction of the Holy Spirit, and therefore the books are dedicated to Him as the Senior Author. Within a week, Jackie was given the title and outline for the book, the cover design and even the colour scheme. The contents of the book are culled from her background as a teacher and minister, amply aided by the Holy Spirit’s direction and promptings. Within weeks of the book launch in late 2019, the scourge of the Covid 19 pandemic descended upon the world; hence, the urgency of the End Time message in this book is more relevant than ever.God’s Salvation and Promises, a bilingual book in English and Chinese, was inspired by the Holy Spirit who prompted Jackie to take out Chapter 9 of Survival Kit to target Chinese believers and prebelievers. Therefore, it has been revamped and expanded to include new material, especially the Scriptural comfort verses which minister to almost every situation in life.

Book preview

Man is born broken

He lives by mending

The grace of God is glue

—Eugene O’Neill

Jackie Tan

Copyright © 2019 Jackie Tan

All Scripture quotations, unless otherwise indicated, are taken from the New King James Version (NKJV), Copyright © 1982 by Thomas Nelson, Inc. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

Scripture quotations designated (NIV) are from the HOLY BIBLE, NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION, Copyright © 1973, 1978, 1984 by International Bible Society. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

Scripture quotations designated (NLT) are from the New Living Translation, Copyright © 1996, 2004, 2007 by Tyndale House Foundation. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

Scripture quotations designated (NLV) are from the New Life Version, Copyright © 1969 by Christian Literature International. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

This ebook is licensed for your personal use only. This ebook may not be re-sold or given away to other people. If you would like to share this ebook with another person, please purchase an additional copy for each recipient. If you’re reading this book and did not purchase it, or it was not purchased for your use only, then please return to Smashwords.com and purchase your own copy. Thank you for respecting the hard work of this author.

Because of the continually changing nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in the end notes of this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or any other—for commercial purposes, except for brief quotations in printed reviews, without the prior permission of the publisher.

Churches and other non commercial interests may reproduce portions of this book without the express written permission of the publisher, provided the text does not exceed 500 words. When reproducing text from this book, include the following credit line: From ‘Survival Kit for Stressful Times’ written and published by Jackie Tan. Used by permission.

Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgement

Chapter 1: A World in Crisis

Ten Global Problems

Job Security, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Global Economic Vulnerability and Global Financial Meltdown

Civil Society, the Social Contract and rise of Populism

Global Warming, Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters

Overpopulation, Food Insecurity and Environmental Degradation

War and Ethnic Conflicts, the rise of Terrorism and Immigration Backlash

Corruption, the World Happiness Report and 1MDB

A new Cold War (?), Geopolitics and Nuclear Risks

Cybersecurity, Cybercrime and Scams

Loneliness, Depression and Ageing

Final Thoughts

Chapter 2: Life in the 21st Century, The Spirit of this Age, The Laodicean Church and Revival

Life in the 21st Century

The Spirit of this Age

Materialistic Modern Man

Jesus’ Temptation in the Desert

The Laodicean Church

Sins and Excesses of the Church

God’s pronouncement against false shepherds

Jesus’ uncompromising stand for Truth and Righteousness

The Institutionalized Church versus the Book of Acts Church

Repentance before Revival

Chapter 3: Jesus’ First Advent and Events in the First century AD

Jesus’ First Advent and fulfilment of Prophecy

Handel’s Messiah

The Roman Empire and Pax Romana

Why Jesus the Messiah was Rejected by the Jews

Chapter 4: The Second Coming of Christ: Promise and Chaos

Signs in the heavens and worsening conditions on earth

Wars, Famines, Pestilences and Earthquakes

The Doctrine of demons and Eve’s deception

False Prophets and Teachers

Heresies and erroneous teachings of the modern church

The Great Falling Away of the Church

Waiting for the Bridegroom

The Rapture of the Church

The Second Coming of Christ

Modern Technology and End Time Prophecy

Chapter 5: Success Stories and Spectacular Failures, The Abrahamic Covenant and Remnant Believers

Success Stories and Spectacular Failures

Two Judges, two different Destinies

Jephthah: The Come Back Kid

Samson: The lustful one man army

A Tale of Two Kings

David: A man after God’s heart

Solomon: The wisest man who became a total fool

Two Men who changed Israel’s History

Daniel: The Spiritual Warrior

Nehemiah: Watchman on the Wall

The Abrahamic Covenant’s Spiritual Heirs

Europe’s Historical Past and Future Hope

God is calling out a Remnant unto Himself

Chapter 6: How to Live in these Stressful Times

Greed can destroy faith

Get out of debt

Enjoy yourself…it’s later than you think!

Declutter your life

Reduce, Reuse and Recycle

Reassess, Regroup, Relax and Relearn

Learn to see the Big Picture

Regret is toxic

Chapter 7: Recharge, Restore, Recover and Remain (steadfast)

Recharge through the Word, Prayer and Fasting, and the Holy Spirit

Restore our relationship with God

Recover our joy and receive God’s blessings

Remain steadfast in the Lord

Chapter 8: Who is Jesus, The Triune God, The Resurrection of Jesus, The Message of Salvation

Who is Jesus: Liar, Lunatic or Lord?

If Jesus was a liar

If Jesus was a lunatic

Jesus is Lord over all Creation

Jesus’ Claims of Deity and Divinity

The Triune God

The Resurrection of the Lord Jesus Christ

The stolen body hypothesis

The wrong tomb hypothesis

The substitution hypothesis

The ‘swoon’ hypothesis

The hallucination hypothesis

The case of the empty tomb

The Message of Salvation: You must be Born Again

Why Christianity is Different

A Paean to the Lord Jesus Christ

Chapter 9: The Plan of Salvation, Jesus in the New Testament and Comfort Verses

The Plan of Salvation

Jesus in the New Testament

Comfort Verses for Hope and Healing

End Notes

Foreword

I make no apologies for my Christian faith. Some may find the things written in this book fanciful or totally unbelievable, even offensive; they are entitled to their opinion as I am to mine. This book was written with Christians in view, but hopefully others may read it and form their own opinions. It is not written to please or entertain but to convince people of the claims of Jesus Christ as Saviour and God, and to point the way to Him.

I am only quoting and stating what evangelical Christianity believes in, that is, the unadulterated Word of God that has stood the test of time—2000 years of unbroken faith, sacrifice and trust in the Bible. The proofs given in this book are miniscule compared to the body of literature outside that attests to the validity of so many of the Bible’s claims, especially through archeology and modern scientific discoveries.

This book was written for a specific purpose, which is to address the 10 grave problems facing humanity today from a Christian perspective. The fact that even the WEC or World Economic Forum has put out such a grim Global Risks Report 2019 underscores the severity of the problems we are facing right now, and the fears and apprehension of millions, even billions of people, who have given up on their governments and leaders to solve their problems and everyday concerns.

This book is designed to appeal to as many as possible: the young and old, the rich and the poor, and Christians and non believers. That is why I have included not just Christian material but short accounts of the historical background of the Roman Empire, scientific and technological advances this past century, and even a nod to music lovers by referring to Biblical prophecies in Handel’s Messiah. The first chapter on the 10 global problems facing humanity are culled from over 60 different sources.

Please do not use this book as another ‘how to’ manual for reference when needed. It is designed to be used as a devotional, an evangelistic tool, for hospital visitation (comfort Bible verses) and even as a mini apologetics handbook to defend your faith. Survival Kit for Stressful Times is a labour of love dedicated to the Lord Jesus Christ. It is a commission which I accept gladly. It is my hope and prayer that its pages give the information and answers to some questions you may have concerning the Bible or matters of faith, and that in a small way it inspires you to grow and walk with the Lord till He comes for us soon. Maranatha!

Jackie Tan

Acknowledgement

It is unusual, but I dedicate this book to the Holy Spirit who is the Senior Author of this endeavor. Within a week in December 2018, the Spirit gave me the title and outline for the book, and even the cover design. While gathering material and doing research in the first months, the right information would flow in weekly and sometimes daily, from print, media and online resources, or pop up unexpectedly on Youtube and newsfeeds.

When I was unsure how to write (theological or doctrinal issues) or could not see the spiritual connection between various points, His prompting, wisdom and understanding would lead me to jot down things on paper or type it out on the computer, guided by His sure hand. Of course, the smoothing out of syntax and grammar was my duty.

Special thanks also goes to my pastor who patiently read through the entire rather long manuscript, checking for Biblical accuracy and doctrinal purity. His comments and suggestions are deeply appreciated, as well as the prayers, encouragement and support, without which this book would not have been written.

Chapter 1: A World in Crisis

I had a pleasant shock recently when viewing the WEC’s (World Economic Forum) video on the most pressing problems facing mankind in 2019. First on their list is Loneliness, which is actually number 10 on my own list prepared about two months earlier! The second and third problems, Extreme Weather and Global Economic Vulnerability, are also in my list. It is indeed very surprising that the WEC, the most famous and authoritative global economic organization (which meets yearly at Davos in Switzerland), rates Loneliness as the biggest threat facing the world today, rather than an economic or financial problem. However, after seeing the video, it is understandable why they said that.¹

After seeing the WEC video, I downloaded their full Global Risk Report 2019 as that would give a lot more information. But after skimming though it for a few minutes, I noted the startling similarities between other problems stated in their report and those on my list, such as Artificial Intelligence and cybersecurity. Therefore, I decided not to read further as I did not want it to over influence my writing. Of course, the WEC full Report is weighty and voluminous compared to the summarised information presented here, since the purpose of this book is to help people navigate the challenges of modern living from a Christian perspective, not to detail how serious these problems are.

The latest updated information, where possible, has been included in this chapter, but of course, by the time this book is printed and distributed, some of the things written will be outdated while others will be reinforced. It is certainly better to source information from over 60 print and online articles and videos, rather than be heavily dependent on a few reports which would give a narrow and lopsided view. Any citations from the WEC video will be quoted verbatim, as it has summarized the problems so well that it is impossible to write it any better. I will definitely read the full report after finishing this chapter, partly out of curiosity to see what it says about the global risks facing humanity in a world that is constantly lurching from crisis to crisis.

Ten Global Problems

Hollywood has been milking the ‘planet in crisis and apocalyptic’ genres for many years, but today’s global problems don’t need any help from the film industry as they are worse than anything script writers can conjure up. Just switch on the news to any channel—CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera or China’s CGTN and a litany of the day’s woes will pour out endlessly. They will be quickly forgotten when the next crisis or crises hit the screen, as our attention spans get shorter and shorter. Our senses become numb as we stare at these disasters—catastrophic flooding, typhoons and tornadoes, tsunamis, devastating forest fires, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes/toppled buildings, or the opposite—dried up riverbeds and parched farmlands, stunted crops and dying herds of animals. ‘Compassion fatigue’ is the term used to describe our seeming indifference to this overload of suffering humanity.

Aside from natural disasters, the billions of people living in cities and urban landscapes face problems which are peculiar to modern life. For the first time in human history, there are more people living in cities than in the countryside, creating urban slums and generating mountains of waste and filth which are then dumped into the oceans which have become ‘sewers without borders’. True, this planet has always been kind and cruel at the same time to the human race and other creatures living and feeding off it, but the abuse Mother Nature has suffered at the hands of modern man has created a backlash, making the planet break down irretrievably.

Global television networks, newspapers and constant news feeds from various social media bombard us with information 24/7 which definitely has a negative impact. We either become weary and blasé and just ignore all the awful news coming from everywhere, or become anxious wrecks constantly worried about the state of the world and how we are going to survive now, and as we get older. It is against this tumultuous backdrop that the 10 global problems of today are examined.

1. Job Security, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution

If you ask working people what are their biggest concerns, most would say they need more money and job security, and fear that Artificial Intelligence or AI will destroy or make their jobs redundant. Salaries cannot keep pace with inflation and rising living costs, forcing many people to take on more than one job just to survive. So many parents with children struggle to feed, clothe and educate them as consumerism makes us want things we never knew we needed before. Many graduates simply cannot find jobs in over saturated markets but are saddled with education loans. Young people postpone marriage as they cannot afford to marry because of insecure or part time jobs and sky high property prices. Those who marry forgo children and become DINKS (double income, no kids). This scenario prevails across the world, on every continent.

The fear of automation and AI decimating jobs and making workers redundant is real, not imagined. Millions of factory jobs worldwide have already disappeared in the last decade as robots take over simple and repetitive jobs in assembly lines and warehouses, while robotics have also taken over dangerous jobs such as welding. Huge farms only need a few people adept at using drones for surveying the acreage, and computers to drive machines that weed, plant, fertilize, harvest, load the crop, etc. Driverless cars are not science fiction but will be reality soon. Robots are even performing surgeries guided by doctors on computers! Cyborg technology will enable amputees to use their AI enhanced brains to communicate with their robotic limbs and improve mobility.²

An Oxford University study warned that 45 percent of current jobs will disappear in the next 10 years, either fully automated or updated till only a fraction of the workforce is needed. These are the jobs that could disappear or be highly automated:

1) drivers of taxis and delivery trucks

2) printers and publishers

3) farm workers

4) cashiers

5) travel agents

6) manufacturing workers

7) dispatchers coordinating field operators with police, firefighters, etc.

8) waiters and fast food workers

9) bank tellers

10) military pilots and soldiers

11) telemarketers

12) accountants

13) stock market traders

14) construction workers

15) retail workers³

But not all is gloom and doom as there are also new jobs created in the new digital economy. For more details about this subject, check the end note citations.⁴

An unfortunate consequence of AI is that women will be harder hit than men because of automation. Computers will increasingly take over mundane jobs such as accounting and secretarial work, traditionally the domain of women. Although women also work in digital fields, the highest paying jobs in technology are still dominated by men. For every seven men working in occupations that are most threatened by technological change, there are 10 women in such jobs.⁵ Since so many women now are heads of households due to divorce and other reasons, the impact on their children’s wellbeing and societies as a whole will be devastating and incalculable as more families are dragged down into poverty. This is evidenced by more families needing food aid as they simply cannot feed themselves adequately.

What is the Fourth Industrial Revolution?

This term was invented in 2016 by Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum (WEC), who explains it as ‘a technological revolution that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital and biological spheres’.⁶ Technologies like AI in face recognition technology and voice activated virtual assistance for household gadgets are already in use in daily life. Science fiction has become fact with 3D printing which can print body parts like a bionic arm or a hip bone!

The 3rd industrial revolution or digital revolution occurred in the middle of the 20th century, with major inventions like semiconductors, personal computers and the Internet. What differentiates the 3rd and 4th industrial revolutions is that technology is merging more and more with human lives and technological change is speeding up; for example, it took 75 years for the telephone to reach 100 million users but only two years for Instagram to reach the same number. This rapid technological change is making inequality between the rich and poor even worse, with innovators, their financiers and shareholders becoming even wealthier. The richest one percent of people in the world already own almost half of the world’s wealth in a ‘winner takes all’ economy. Highly skilled workers earn huge salaries while the rest of the labour force languish at the bottom, because they don’t have the skillsets needed in the new digital economy.

Another danger is intrusive data collection by big companies of their customers’ personal data, not only by Facebook and Google but even by the retail and food industries. Cutting edge technology is making large companies into tech companies, without exception. Lifelike robots with advanced reasoning powers and emotions are an eerie and dangerous new invention, which can engage in debates and interviews with humans.

In the last message before his death in 2018, Stephen Hawking gave a chilling warning and prediction about AI: Although AI could the biggest event in human civilization, it could also be the last, unless we learn to avoid the risks.7 AI will be dangerous, creating powerful autonomous weapons and a world of its own which will conflict with the human world. AI would take off on its own and redesign itself at an ever increasing rate, while humans limited by their slow biological evolution cannot compete. Will we heed the grim warning of the greatest scientist of our generation? Elon Musk who runs Tesla and SpaceX, concurs about this danger and has an AI company dedicated to helping AI develop along the right path.

If we think that AI will not surpass human intelligence during our lifetimes, be shocked that Hanson Robotics has created a robot called Sophia (Saudi Arabia has given her citizenship!) which seems to have a mind of her own. Hanson has robots which can communicate with one another (using advanced thinking and reasoning powers) through a Wifi ‘mind cloud’ and will be continually upgraded to the point where they, in the words of chief scientist Ben Goertzel,⁸ ‘can equal or surpass human intelligence in three to five years’!! He seems to think that robots and humans can integrate harmoniously but IS HE SURE?? Imagine an army of robots communicating with one another independently, without their creators knowing what is going on! Does Hanson Robotics not realize they are opening a Pandora’s box, that if the robots malfunction or fall into the wrong hands, then life would truly imitate art, with robots ruling the world and humans as slaves, like many Hollywood movies already portray!

2. Global Economic Vulnerability and Global Financial Meltdown

The WEC 2019 Global Risk Report says this about the global economy: The world economy is facing a ‘perfect storm’ in 2019. Trade tensions are rising between major economic powers and global growth is slowing. The global debt burden is significantly higher than before the 2008 crash at around 225% of GDP. And although global inequality has dipped since 2000, inequality within countries has continued to rise, damaging trust and social cohesion. After a period of globalization, the world is now diverging, making it difficult to make collective progress and cooperation on global challenges such as protecting the environment and preparing the workforce for automation. If another global crisis hits, previous levels of cooperation and support may not emerge. Despite bold attempts to rethink global capitalism, a lack of collective will could threaten how we solve future crises.

Globalisation is the process of interaction and integration among the people, companies and governments of different nations, driven by international trade and investment and aided by information technology.⁹ This process integrates local and national economies into a global unregulated economy, affecting economic development, prosperity and human wellbeing everywhere. With more trade, transportation and communication, societies and cultures are interlinked globally with broader exchanges of social, cultural, political and biological factors such as immigration and climate change. Globalisation is not new. It has existed for thousands of years with people trading from different continents, connecting China to Europe via the Silk Road before and during the Middle Ages. China also established maritime trade routes connecting it to South East Asia (via the Straits of Malacca) all the way to Africa with Admiral Zheng He’s treasure ships.

With the fall of the Soviet Bloc countries in 1989, the globalisation push intensified for free markets, free trade and free capital flows. Along with free market principles, democracy, the rule of law and primacy of individual freedoms became the predominant ideology in the world. However, there is a fundamental flaw in ‘allowing the market to be the sole director of the fate of human beings and their environment’.¹⁰ The market economy cannot self regulate as human beings are essentially selfish and will enrich themselves at the expense of others less capable of accumulating wealth. That was the premise of socialism, that distributing a society’s wealth among all citizens would create fairness and equality for all. Instead, it morphed into totalitarianism and its tragic consequences.

Freedom of the stock and capital markets with scant regulation led to the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Countries and individuals spent way beyond their means and debt levels were so high that it was a matter of time before everything crashed. The subprime crisis was the trigger that brought down the American economy and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers shook the financial world. The world economic system is so interlinked that contagion will spread rapidly from one part of the world to another within hours or a few days at the most, since stock markets essentially are open 24/7 with different time zones. There were fears that the world would be plunged into another Great Depression reminiscent of the stock market crash of 1929 and collapsed economies across the world, which was one of the contributing factors leading to the Second World War.

Fortunately, central banks around the world and the World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund) were able to bring the very precarious situation under control. This collective cooperation staved off the total collapse of the world economy. Central banks started printing more money to get their countries’ economies going again, and governments bailed out large banks and corporations deemed ‘too big to fail’ as millions of jobs were at stake. However, this ‘easy money’ has become a crutch, as every time markets try to ‘impose pain when individuals, firms and states want to live beyond their means, the central banks are asked to print more money’.

Central banks have injected US$14 trillion into global markets since 2009 and ‘the global debt burden is significantly higher than before the 2008 crash’, the WEC Report warns. There will be very little room to manoeuvre if there should be another global financial crisis, which appears to be building up again. The big question is: Will there be another world recession in 2020?

Many countries, companies and individuals have yet to recover from the Great Recession of 2008/9. This recession hit young people in Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy) particularly hard, and they have been called ‘the lost generation’ because of shocking unemployment rates of 30-50 percent at its height in 2012/14. Young graduates were unable to secure jobs just to survive, much less thrive. It is very painful to be unemployed or underemployed for years and have hopes of a bright future snuffed out. Many left for richer countries like Britain or Germany or went back to their family farms and businesses.

During a trip to Spain and Portugal in 2011, our part time tour guide who had a master’s degree thanked us for visiting Portugal and helping to revive its economy. Just a year later, it was shocking to see a picture of the huge Plaza Mayor in Madrid almost empty of people, where before thousands of visitors and tourists (including me) were enjoying food, artists painting and live music shows. Greece has been grappling with debt for over a decade, repeatedly slashing government employee salaries and pensions. Enraged citizens took to the streets in dozens of demonstrations, sometimes violent, as the people found it impossible to live on the pittance they received.

A leading think tank in Brussels published a report in 2017¹¹ stating that youth unemployment (aged 18-24) in parts of Southern Europe was still as high as 29 percent because of massive government debt levels and failure to create jobs. Tax evasion is highest in these countries so governments don’t have the money to implement desperately needed reforms. In contrast, Northern European Scandinavian countries have generous welfare policies and take care of their people very well.

The world is drowning in debt, nearly US$250 trillion, with the US, China and Japan as the biggest borrowers. Although debt can create growth, excessive debts are dangerous if borrowers can’t service them.¹² It was debt that triggered the 2008 global financial crisis, but today financial institutions have fewer options to act decisively, exacerbated by geopolitical risks, natural disasters and conflicts. Rising household debt among the middle class and housing asset bubbles especially in Asia pose a great risk, as emerging economies have been on a borrowing binge for the last decade and account for a bigger share of the world economy than before. Amid slowing economic growth and global trade, the next world recession could start anywhere—in Asia, the European Union, or again in the USA.

Credit growth is the biggest predictor of financial crisis. Many US businesses are highly leveraged because they borrowed heavily to take advantage of extra low rates. The same can be said of Chinese businesses despite their government clampdown. In short, the problem is too much debt and too little financial discipline. What is borrowed must be paid for sooner or later, whether the borrowers are governments, corporations or individuals. A government cannot borrow without limit as that will devalue its country’s currency and push up inflation, causing more pain to their people.

The real risk is lack of preparedness and lack of global cooperation. Interest rates are still so low that central banks won’t be able to cut rates to perk up economic growth. Quantitative easing, or printing money to buy bonds, was heavily used to ‘cure’ the 2008/9 recession.¹³ However, that financial tool together with record low interest rates led to ‘cheap money’ flooding world markets and fueled the meteoric rise of property prices worldwide, repeating the same mistake as before!

Politically, the world is more polarized than before, and governments are being challenged by populist and nationalistic parties so they cannot agree on big spending programs again. Inter country relations are also more contentious now such as the US-China trade war and the Brexit divorce mess. Even if world recession does not occur in 2019, it can’t be far off. Are we ready for it?

Instead of learning from those mistakes, central banks, corporations and individuals today are more highly leveraged than before. This very fragile financial situation is ripe for a meltdown should anything trigger it off… perhaps if the trade war between US and China goes unresolved? Whatever the trigger, once the domino effect starts, contagion spreads so quickly it cannot be stopped or contained, like a house of cards falling. This is a very scary scenario indeed.

3. Civil Society, the Social Contract and rise of Populism

The term civil society is also called the ‘third sector’ of society after government and business, including the family and private sphere. It encompasses organisations such as NGOs, labour unions, charitable organizations and foundations, religious and professional bodies and community and indigenous groups. Together, private citizens and these organisations express the interests and will of the people. When mobilized, civil society has the power to influence the actions of elected policy makers and businesses.¹⁴

A social contract binds people together in a community for mutual preservation. People can no longer do as they please but willingly surrender some of their freedoms to an authority in exchange for protection of their remaining rights.¹⁵ The common good is what is in the best interests of society as a whole, and what the social contract is meant to achieve. The collective will of the people is sovereign and often at odds with the government which is the executive power of a state. In a democracy, people unhappy with their government can vote them out and install a new one that better understands and implements their aspirations.

Modern globalisation worked very well for many years, as global trade increased tremendously. People across the world enjoyed higher standards of living as goods became cheaper and more abundant. Labour intensive industries moved from America and Europe to lower wage countries in South East Asia and later China, lessening their dependence on agriculture and commodities. Global corporations reaped astronomical profits with economies of scale and expanded markets. The more advanced countries enjoyed high wages because of superior technology and innovations such as the computer and Internet revolution.

The push-pull factor created a mass migration of peoples worldwide after the Second World War, with many from the Old World leaving for the New World. In their place came millions from Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Germany invited Turks to fill manual jobs which locals shunned, France admitted former colonized people from North Africa and Britain also accepted people from her former colonies. South Americans trekked thousands of miles to their El Dorado to pursue the American Dream. Globalisation broke down cultural barriers as people began to appreciate one another’s unique cultural traits in food, clothing, music, literature, art, etc.

But then cracks began to appear in this well oiled network. Multinationals continued to transfer factories overseas because of cheaper and more abundant labour, and lower skilled workers in rich countries increasingly found themselves jobless. Entire towns and industrial zones such as the automotive industry in Detroit crumbled as Japanese and other imported cars became more popular. Even services such as taking customer calls were outsourced to India and the Philippines.

As Asians became more prosperous, many in the US and EU faced bleak futures without the skills needed to match new digital technology demands. Automation accelerated job losses and people were forced to take lower wage jobs in the service industry. With the fall of real wages came a corresponding fall in living standards and rising social problems like drug abuse, alcoholism and divorce; in inner cities, the poverty cycle can infect three or more generations.

Social mobility means that children in a particular socioeconomic class have the potential to progress and enjoy upward mobility. Talented and hardworking people should have opportunity to progress. People who are stuck at the bottom of the social ladder have no chance to rise, and when jobs disappear as they have in the manufacturing and retail sectors in vast numbers, unemployment creates more inequality. Higher inequality can influence the way people behave and vote. For instance, people who felt unhappy and disenfranchised with their lives supported the ‘leave votes’ in the Brexit referendum. The same occurred in the US when Donald Trump unexpectedly won the 2016 election because he was able to tap into