In the Way of the Road

By Richard T. Griffiths

This book explores the ecological impact of infrastructure through the lens of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Understanding the impacts of infrastructure on the environment is a crucial foundation for a sustainable life on earth. Here we follow the world’s biggest infrastructure project along its routes and explore the ecosystems through which they will pass, and the possible negative consequences which may follow. We welcome you to join us on a journey along the Belt and Road, to meet the unique species and ecosystems that make up the landscapes that support it.

• Language: English
• Publisher: International Institute for Asian Studies (IIAS)
• Release date: Mar 25, 2021
• ISBN: 9789082381061

Book preview

Hughes

In the Way of the Road. The Ecological Consequences of Infrastructure

Editors: Richard T. Griffiths and Alice C. Hughes

Copyright © 2021 Richard T. Griffiths. All rights reserved.

Published by Richard T. Griffiths / International Institute for Asian Studies

ISBN 978-90-823810-6-1

This book explores the ecological impact of infrastructure through the lens of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Understanding the impacts of infrastructure on the environment is a crucial foundation for a sustainable life on earth. The book follows the world’s biggest infrastructure project along its routes through which they will pass and explores the possible negative consequences which may follow as well as the means to ameliorate these effects.

Contents

Preface

Abbreviations

List of Tables

List of Figures

Advance Praise for the Book

INTRODUCTION

Richard T. Griffiths and Alice C. Hughes

CHAPTER ONE

In the Way of the Road. Infrastructure and its consequences

Richard T. Griffiths and Alice C. Hughes

Economic Modelling for Infrastructure

Bottom-up Projections of Infrastructure needs

Plans for Investment in Infrastructure

Along the Road

CHAPTER TWO

Road, rail and pipelines and the risks posed for biodiversity

Elena F. Tracy

Introduction

Methodology

China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor

The New Eurasian Land Bridge

China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor

China-Myanmar Economic Corridor

Conclusion and Recommendations

CHAPTER THREE

Wind and Solar and Mitigating Strategies

Zach Fitzner

Solar and Wind Energy in Eurasia

Mining: A Necessary Evil

Wind Energy

Offshore Wind Farms

Solar Energy Systems

Minimizing the Impacts of Energy Systems

CHAPTER FOUR

Birds, bats and onshore wind industry: Portugal as a case study

Ana Teresa Marques and Joana Bernardino

Impacts of wind farms on birds and bats

Gaps & Challenges

Roadmap to a sustainability

CHAPTER FIVE

The Big Dam Boom. Water infrastructure impacts on freshwater biodiversity in Eurasia

David Dudgeon

Impacts of dams

The matter of scale

The footprint of hydropower dams in Eurasia

Case study: hydropower dams along the Mekong River

Mitigation 1: the example of fish passages

Mitigation 2: environmental water allocations (e-flows)

The ‘so what?’ question

Inadvertance?

A last word

Chapter SIX

Ports: Infrastructure at the Edge

Richard T. Griffiths

Port Exploitation

Port Expansion

Port Protection

Conclusion

Chapter SEVEN

The Arctic. An ecosystem approach to the Polar Silk Road and its associated infrastructures

Alexandre Cornet

The PSR and connectivity infrastructures

The Polar Silk Road and natural resources exploitation

The fragility of environmental and human Arctic contexts

The environmental impacts of the PSR’s infrastructure projects

The PSR, and multilateral environmental cooperation

Effective options for PSR environmental cooperation

Conclusion

CHAPTER EIGHT

Financing the protection of biodiversity. International governance as a mitigating factor of the risks along the Belt and Road Initiative

Enrique Martínez-Galán

Overview

Introduction – a reminder of the status of biodiversity in Asia

1. Structure of international governance on biodiversity

2. The role of the People’s Republic of China and the Belt and Road Initiative in the international governance on biodiversity

3. Filling in the financing gap in biodiversity in the region of Asia and the Pacific

Conclusion

FINAL REFLECTIONS

Complex Solutions for a Mulitfacetted Problem

Zach Fitzner

Let us not ignore the High Seas

Richard T. Griffiths

The Outlook of the Arctic

Alexandre Cornet

Transportation infrastructure as a vehicle for biodiversity discovery and health security

Michael C. Orr and Alice C. Hughes

Regional cooperation while responding to environmental and infrastructural changes

Aysun Uyar Makibayashi

Domestically on track, but lagging abroad

Enrique Martínez-Galán

Looking to the future

Alice C. Hughes

The Authors

The Book Cover

Preface

Economic development requires the provision of physical infrastructure to promote economic activity and to provide new opportunities for regions which were previously too remote to connect to global trade networks. However, this expanding human development carries huge environmental risks. The infrastructure itself requires resources and the peoples in newly accessible areas need power, water and, of course, raw materials. All of these leave a far larger human footprint on the environment. There is a consensus that the greatest danger comes from the use of fossil fuels and the effect of their emissions on the environment. So-called ‘greenhouse gases’ are contributing to ‘climate change’ resulting in ‘global warming’. There is also a consensus that something needs to be done to resolve the matter before it is ‘too late’.

This book does not deal with these questions. Rather it analyses a second level of dangers that stem from the provision of infrastructure. These result from of the fragmentation of natural habitats and the degradation of natural environments. They contribute directly to an acceleration in species lost that scientists have observed over the past decades. In the last ten years alone 467 species of animals have been declared extinct and as many as one million more are endangered. The intrusion of humans into new environments to satisfy needs for food, housing and raw materials is the major contributary cause, but it is infrastructure that allows this to happen. Global warming, too, alters the conditions for species survival, but ironically, many of the ‘sustainable energy’ solutions advances have negative impacts of their own. So this volume concentrates on the ecological impact of the infrastructure itself – the vast stretches of roads, railways and pipe-lines that transect the environments, the alternative energy sources that are supposed to mitigate climate change but that endanger the survival of species in their vicinities, the ports that make possible by far the greatest part of global trade but that despoil the coastal environments upon which they encroach. It also looks separately at the uniquely vulnerable environment of the Arctic as it, too, becomes more accessible to man’s quest for trade routes and resources. The message of this book is not negative. There are often mitigating solutions that can be adopted to reduce the environmental impacts of infrastructure, but they will not be taken if we fail to recognise the existence of the problem, if we lull ourselves into the belief that if we ‘fix’ the climate change problem the rest will fall into place by itself.

The geographical focus of this book is Eurasian continent, the area spanning the space between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the land-mass between the east coast of China and the west coast of Europe. The first reason for this choice is to avoid too great a diversity of experience and too amorphous a range of solutions. The second reason is that this was the region originally claimed as the geographical span of China’s so-called ‘Belt and Road initiative’(BRI), launched in 2013 and branded as the largest infrastructural project in human history. Necessarily such a program carries with it risks for the landscapes through which it passes, from the materials ground to produce the roads, to the ecosystems bisected by these new roads, rails and other transport routes. Furthermore, providing energy to these new regions also has a cost, and whether coal, or renewable energy these are not without impact on the environment. These risks are not limited to those countries that have joined the BRI. They apply equally to countries such as India, that have ambitious infrastructure plans of their own. However, the BRI programme allows us to journey down the six major corridors that the BRI identifies, to navigate through the ecosystems and touch on the species impacted by these intended routes.

Our journey starts by describing the impacts of infrastructure on the environment in simple terms, we then outline the six major routes of the Belt and road across Eurasia, and briefly describe some of the ecosystems these routes transect, and some of the charismatic species within these systems such as the Saiga antelope. We then discuss how the production of power can adversely impact the environment, from turbines that may be fatal to bats and birds, to the impact of mining on ecosystems on land, to those at the depths of the ocean. Like wind and solar power, Hydropower is often portrayed as green energy, and like these other forms of energy production hydropower is set to increase by orders of magnitude across the region. Yet with the Greater Mekong subregion hosting over 1200 species of migratory freshwater fish this explosion of damming also has major consequences for the aquatic diversity of the region, and the people who depend upon it for food and livelihood provision.

Yet, of aquatic ecosystems not only freshwater systems are set to be impacted by this development, but the development of the maritime belt and road, and the need for connectivity between marine and terrestrial components of the route mean that ports too will grow, and so will their impacts, converting and pollution marine and near-coastal systems for the birds and marine species dependent upon them. From here we follow the remaining part of the route, the Polar Silkroad to the Frozen North to better understand the impact of growing development in one of the previously most intact parts of the planet, which is said to become a future battleground for investors and developers.

Having spanned from tropical rainforests, to grasslands, mountains to rivers, sea and ice we then discuss how we can maintain the fantastic diversity of the Asian region using various financial approaches to enable sustainable development, and also review the current strategies being used alongside BRI implementation to effect ecological civilization. We highlight options available to use financial approaches to enable sustainable development, and implement better standards, but also highlight current gaps at all levels, from multi-national and United Nations conventions, to National and subnational level.

From this we reflect back on the challenges, and opportunities, the gaps and advances, the options we have, and the possible trajectories of future change as a consequence of the Belt and Road and similar developments across Asia.

We hope to not only provide more insights and enhance the understanding of our readers, but to make them consider the complexities associated with comprehending the impacts of development on the world we live in, and how we might mitigate them to create a better future for life on earth. Furthermore, by providing examples of species and ecosystems touched by the route we hope to put a face on the process of change, the species losing habitat and range, and those most in need of better environmental standards to minimise the impacts of these changes on the world around us.

Abbreviations

ADB Asian Development Bank

AIIB Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

BCIMEC Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor

BRI Belt and Road Initiative

BTK Baku-Tbilisi-Kars rail

CBD Convention on Biological Diversity

CCWAEC China-Central and West Asia Economic Corridor

CIPEC China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor

cm centimetre

CMEC China-Myanmar Economic Corridor

CMREC China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor

CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation

COP Conference of the Parties

COSCO China Ocean Shipping Company

CSP Concentrated Solar Power

DMC developing member countries

EAEU Eurasian Economic Union

EAL Environmental Assessment Law

EBA ecosystem-based approach

EIA environmental impact assessments

ELOHA Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration

EMP Environmental Management Plan

EU European Union

FRIC Free, prior and informed consent

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG greenhouse gas

GRI Global Roads Inventory

GW Gigawatt

GWh gigawatt-hour

HSR high-speed rail

IADB Inter-American Development Bank

IBA Important Bird Areas

IDFC International Development Finance Club

IEA International Energy Agency

IFC International Finance Corporation

IFL Intact Forest Landscapes

IMO International Maritime Organisation

IPBES Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency

ISA International Seabed Authority

ITF International Transport Forum

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

IWGIA International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs

KBAs key biodiversity areas

km kilometre

LMB Lower Mekong Basin

m metre

MEA multilateral environmental agreements

MME mass mortality events

MW megawatt

m/s metres per second

NBSAP national biodiversity strategies and action plan

NCL Natural Capital Lab

NELB New Eurasian Land Bridge

NEP Northeast Passage

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NSR Northern Sea Route

NSRDP Northern Sea Route development plan

p.a. per annum

PADDD protected area downsizing, downgrading and degazettement

PRC Peoples Republic of China

PSR Polar Silk Road

PV photovoltaic

RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

SAR Search and Rescue

SDG Sustainable Development Goal

SEA strategic environmental assessment

shps small hydropower plants

SPB Strategic Plans for Biodiversity

SIA social impact assessment

TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline

TSR Trans-Siberian Railway

UN United Nations

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

WEC World Energy Council

Wh watt hours

WHO World Health Organization

WWF

NOTE $ all dollars are US dollars

List of Tables

2.1 Linear Infrastructure Projects in BRI Terrestrial Corridors

7.1 National Protected Area Coverage in the Arctic, 2020

8.1 Reasons for biodiversity loss in the Belt and Road Initiative

8.2 Challenges that make difficult biodiversity financing

8.3 ADB’s active portfolio of biodiversity projects (as of 15 November 2020)

List of Figures

Figure 1.1. Estimates of Eurasian Investment Needs 2015-2040 (billions 2015$).

Figure 1.2. Scenarios for the Sources of Electricity Generation Base Year 2010 and 2050 (Capacity, trillion Wh).

Figure 1.3 Limestone karst, a threatened and overlooked habitat with a 5.7% across the region in Southeast Asia.

Figure 1.4. A Cyrtodactylus karst gecko, a newly described species from Myanmar, under threat from the loss of habitat for cement production.

Figure 1.5. Cynopterus sphinx, a small fruitbat species which frequently inhabits karsts and caves and is an important seed-disperser across Southeast and Southern Asia.

Figure 2.1 Map of BRI road corridors

Figure 2.2 Map of BRI rail corridors

Figure 2.3 Map of major BRI pipelines.

Figure 2.4 A Snow leopard (Uncia uncia) threatened both by the route itself fragmenting the range and causing roadkill, the loss of prey, and possible parasites and diseases from domestic dogs bought with new routes.

Figure 2.5 Saiga (Saiga tatarica) a species at risk from barriers to its’ migratory routes across the BRI.

Figure 2.6. Caspian seal (Pusa caspica), a species under threat by oil and gas extraction and increased marine traffic. These stamps are part of a campaign between all Caspian Sea countries (Russia, Kazakstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan) for the conservation of Caspian sea wildlife.

Figure 3.1 The Greenland Shark (Somniosus microcephalus), one of the oldest known vertebrates at upto 500 years, and living at depths of over 2,200m deep.

Figure 3.2 The Common Kestrel (Falco tinnunculus), one of many species potentially impacted by windfarms, and found to be the most greatly impacted in Europe.

Figure 3.3 Sarada superba the fan-throated lizard, changes in habitat induced by wind-turbines are shown to drive stress in the species.

Figure 4.1. Hipposideros pomona (here shown with offspring), one of the many bat species in the Asian region which could potentially be impacted by wind-turbines.

Figure 4.2 Adaptive Management cycle for sustainable wind energy development

Figure 5.1. Map of the Mekong and existing and planned dams

Figure 5.2. The critically endangered Chao Phraya giant catfish (Pangasius sanitwongsei).

Figure 5.3. The Irrawaddy dolphin (Orcaella brevistostris).

Figure 5.4. An example of a fishladder (placed by the Rocky Reach Dam, Washington US).

Figure 6.1. The sea-walnut (Mnemiopsis leidyi).

Figure 6.2. The endangered spoon-billed sandpiper (Calidris pygmaea).

Figure 7.1. A Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus).

Figure 7.2. Bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), one of many marine mammals threatened by arctic development.

Figure 7.3. A feedback loop analysis to an eco-environmentally impactful foreign policy: The case of the Polar Silk Road.

Advance Praise for the Book

‘This monograph gives a refreshing analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) designed by the Chinese government to establish a new world economic order across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean world. It provides unique perspectives on critical habitats and biodiversity loss that will be triggered by this ambitious infrastructural project. The book is seminal and makes a major contribution to the relatively underexplored ecological consequence of this geo-political economic expansionism of China over Asia and Europe.’ Dr Debojyoti Das, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex.

‘The editors of the volume, themselves experts in economic history and the natural sciences, bring together contributions from a multidisciplinary international team of experts to explore the neglected question of the effects of built infrastructure on ecology, in general, and biodiversity, in particular, against a backdrop of global climate change, population growth, and steady infrastructure development. In my opinion, the collective volume is distinguished by three aspects that make it an eye-opening contribution at the right time. First, by using the Belt and Road Initiative as the central theme of the book, a blind spot in the current debate about climate change and renewable energy development is made visible and its global significance is highlighted. Second, the explanations are presented in an exciting format. The book can be seen as a travel guide, which first draws an overall picture of the initiative and its effects in Eurasia. This picture is differentiated in a second step by means of detailed presentations of the six corridors of the initiative and enriched with critical discussions of the ecological consequences of various renewable energy technologies including solar, wind and hydropower, as well as the issues of ports and the growing importance of the Northern Passage, known as the Polar Silk Road, which are little known or discussed in the public discourse. Third, the authors do not stop at the findings, but discuss existing so-called Green Finance mechanisms for sustainable, environmentally just, and biodiversity-preserving infrastructure development and explore possible trajectories to achieve these goals. Thus, for the first time, this book deals critically with perspectives, topics, and regions that have received little attention in the public debate. The volume is, therefore, highly recommended to scholars, development practitioners, and decision makers.’ Dr. Andrei Dörre, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Free University, Berlin.

‘The aim and scope of this book may be ambitious, but the end result is a very readable, fascinating and insightful tapestry of informed perspectives on both known and potential environmental impacts arising from the largest infrastructure project in the history of the world – China’s Belt & Road Initiative. Looking beyond better-known immediate effects of roads, railways and other large infrastructures, including their construction and use, the multiple authors take us on a colourful journey across Eurasia to illustrate the many critical connections between infrastructure projects and biodiversity. More devastating than the actual land area converted through construction is the degradation of ecosystems that is facilitated by increased access to previously remote regions, along with fragmentation of pristine habitat. In this volume, the authors consider many different infrastructure types, from long-distance roads and railways to hydropower dams, maritime ports, and more, offering practical recommendations for mitigating impacts –also noting the need to speak into the realities of developers, policymakers and financiers. In short, this timely book will offer the reader unique insights and substantial food for thought right at the interface of current development dialogues and international geopolitics, with the aim to mainstream sustainability and better protect biodiversity in the arena of infrastructure development.’ Dr. J. Marc Foggin, School of Public Policy & Global Affairs, University of British Columbia.

‘The reader is taken on an eye-opening journey across vast tracts between the East coast of China and the West coast of Europe. Through tropical forests, across grasslands, steppes, taiga and tundra, visiting mountains, rivers, sea and ice. The journey has a purpose: to explore and understand the interaction between humans and nature by focussing upon the infrastructure that makes human society possible. Our map is that drawn by the world’s most ambitious infrastructure building project yet – China’s BRI, and by the end of the journey we are left both appalled by the reckless damage wrought upon fragile biodiversity, and inspired with hope by the ingenious ways being found to mitigate that damage.’ Professor Alice de Jonge, Monash Business School, Monash University.

‘This is the first book to deal adequately with the ecological dimensions of the Belt and Road, forcing us to re-evaluate the story behind the raw materials used to build and/or provide the substance of our everyday lives. Most importantly it demonstrates the true ecological costs of this massive transnational programme. The book serves to remind us that wherever we are we are still part of the environment, and that building infrastructure not only disrupts the areas through which it passes, but also the regions from which its raw components are extracted.’ Dr. Leslie Sklair, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, London School of Economics, Editor of The Anthropocene In Global Media: Neutralizing the Risk

INTRODUCTION

Richard T. Griffiths and Alice C. Hughes

Human progress has often been measured by development, with the innovations in human history enabling us to push the frontiers of development. Yet as we push to develop, and facilitate development in the more remote parts of the planet we must be aware of the consequences on the natural world. The human footprint has continued to expand in recent history, whilst the earths wildernesses have continued to shrink, and already developed and disturbed areas have seen an increase of the intensity at the cost of native diversity. The UN’s Fifth Global Biodiversity Outlook, published in September 2020, highlights the fact that we have not met any of the Aichi targets ¹, coming closest to a protected-areas target but failing all 19. ² Thus 2020 is a wakeup call for global action, the need for a change in our trajectory to enable more integrated planning for sustainable development if we are not to repeat this failure at the 2030 and 2050 visions.

There are three certainties that lie at the core of this book.

The first certainty is that the growth of the world’s human population and its requirements is increasing the pressure on the planet’s resources. Although the dire predictions of the Club of Rome³ did not materialise, there is plenty of evidence that the competition for land and resources with other species, has meant that extinctions are increasing at an accelerating rate, many undetected because of the lack of baseline data. The most recent WWF report lays the blame on the loss of land available to other species because of deforestation and agriculture. A survey of 4,392 species suggest a decline in monitored populations of 68 per cent since 1970 (26 per cent in Europe and Central Asia)⁴. With increased infrastructure and access we can only expect this to further increase as formerly wild areas become more accessible, and inhabited by new human populations.

The second certainty is that improving the quality of life of the many of the World’s population who languish in poverty, requires more infrastructure in the areas of energy and transportation. These are a necessary but insufficient precondition for increasing economic development. Attention to these issues was highlighted by two reports of the Asian Development Bank⁵, but was firmly drawn into focus by the announcement in 2013 of China’s Belt and Road initiative⁶ and the creation of the Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank in 2015.⁷ Infrastructure gaps of upto $15 trillion are expected by 2040, and thus new financial mechanisms and sources can be expected to utilise different standards to those employed by previous lenders such as the World Bank.⁸ Analysis of infrastructure gaps have highlighted that Asia is the fastest growing region of the world with the greatest amount expected to be spent on new infrastructure over the next 5 years⁹, and for example an annual investment of around $210 billion in Southeast Asia alone.¹⁰ The provision of infrastructure does not consume much land resources but provides a mechanism to initiate development and unsustainable use and therefore contributes to the loss of biodiversity and, eventually to species extinction. Thus, finding a balance between development and sustainability represents a major challenge, which requires great care to navigate.

The third is that the Earth’s climate is changing, that this change is accelerating and that human activity is responsible. The science behind this began to be developed in the 19th century but it was only in the 1970s that scientists began to predict the extent and pace of change.¹¹ In 1979 the World Climate Conference and the Research Council of the United Nations placed the blame firmly on the use of fossil fuels and predicted possible rises in the Earth’s temperature on between 2⁰C and 3.5⁰C unless something was done to reverse the trend.¹² Even so, it was not until 1994 that the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change entered into force, committing the World’s nations to stabilising the World’s temperature at a sustainable level.¹³ The most recent undertaking, dating from 2015, commits the parties to limiting the average temperature rise to 1.5⁰C compared with pre-industrial levels, which for most countries requires a substantial reduction in green-house gas emissions compared with the levels in 2005.¹⁴ The warming of the Earth, and the climate change accompanying it, has changed the character and nature of habitats and increased the pressures on the species reliant upon them for their survival. Whilst the Paris agreement includes National commitments for countries to work towards an under 1.5oC change in temperatures, yet balancing these commitments with growing infrastructure again creates a major challenge.

In 2019 a group of scientists met in Kunming to discuss the ecological implications of the BRI. Their report highlighted the many ways in which infrastructure threatened the environment, and suggested ways to mitigate some of the effects.¹⁵ This book flows directly from the discussions held in Kunming. It confines its attention to the Eurasian land mass, whose countries were the initial targets on China’s BRI, but it includes all infrastructure, from whatever source within its remit. It confines its attention to Eurasia because a geographically wider scope would, ironically, have diluted its focus.

The link between biodiversity and infrastructure has received less attention than has the impact of either greenhouse gasses or the growing human footprint. The impacts vary according to the type of infrastructure under consideration. Roads and railways do not consume much land, but the fragment habitats, and smaller areas support proportionately fewer species.¹⁶ Wind and solar energy and hydroelectric power generation are all offered as