Excess Capital

By John Robinson

We have long faced, and ignored, the paradox of plenty. Progress could provide a secure and happy life for everybody. Many futures thinkers of the more optimistic 1970s described a leisure society, which had become possible by using the amazing capabilities of modern communications systems to control and expand the use of the scientific discoveries of the industrial revolution. All our physical wants can be satisfied, and the world no longer faces the need to rebuild after the mass destruction of some global conflict. But while a secure and happy life for everybody is theoretically possible, the society of the 1980s had become more unequal and existing social structures were being pulled apart. There was high unemployment rather than reduced working hours and great leisure for all. Why should this be so?
This description of 1989 holds true 30 years later, in 2021.
This book describes how the demands of the profit motive push towards ever higher levels of work activity. The current emphasis on economic growth fails to consider the value of human existence and refuses to countenance any claim for a quality of life which would enjoy the fruits of human success. Instead, Third World peoples have been pressured to borrow the excess moneys of the rich, and have been caught in a poverty trap, now paying more in interest charges than they receive in aid. Highly sophisticated communications systems are used in developed countries to persuade people to consume more and more. Social services, which were once thought to be best provided outside the marketplace, are being privatised for the generation of profit, and environmental destruction continues apace. Economies are not being allowed to settle into stable and sustainable patterns.
This book is based on a wealth of information culled from many sources; the knowledge is there, if only people can break free from the straightjacket of the current conventional wisdom. Only then might society escape from the dystopia which is forecast by futures researcher John Robinson.

• Language: English
• Publisher: John Robinson
• Release date: Feb 18, 2021
• ISBN: 9780463414033

John Robinson

Dr John Robinson was born in Auckland, New Zealand in 1940. He has a BSc and masters degrees in mathematics (MSc) and physics (DipHons) from the University of Auckland and a doctorate (PhD) from MIT. He has lectured at several universities and worked as a research scientist – initially applying mathematics to physical problems, before moving to wide-ranging interdisciplinary studies for international organizations, combining information from global models with historical accounts and inappropriate cultural continuity at times of great stress.While at Applied Mathematics Division of the DSIR in 1974 he began a career in futures research. Subsequent wide-ranging interdisciplinary work has included contract work for DSIR, OECD, UNESCO, UNEP, UNU, the New Zealand Commission for the Future and the USA Foundation for the Future as well as contacts with the Club of Rome. Despite the lack of official interest in an overview of global developments and the challenge to the growth model in New Zealand since 1984, John has continued his research. As he wrote in 2013: “His analysis of long waves in capitalist economies (Excess capital, 1989) forecast the current depression”.Since 1986 another part of his work has concerned Maori socio-economic issues. The considerable change of culture of Maori society when over three millennia of separate Polynesian culture ended with the coming of Europeans provided an example of the problems of a comprehensive culture change (or paradigm shift), as would be required if modern global society were to survive in a overpopulated and overstressed world. In each case a completely new situation arose. In each case the old culture persisted during a period of considerable disruption – now moving to a storm peak for global civilisation.John has published scientific articles in international journals, written many reports on global issues, edited a couple of books and written several books:Excess capital (1989, Technology Monitoring Associates),New Zealand 2030, the world’s lifeboat (2009, Island Bay World Service),Cars at the end of an era, transport issues in the New Zealand greenhouse (2011, Friends of the Earth NZ),The corruption of New Zealand democracy, a Treaty industry overview (2011, Tross Publishing)When two peoples meet, the New Zealand experience (2012, Tross Publishing),Twisting the Treaty, a racial grab for wealth and power (2013, co-author, Tross Publishing).A plague of people, how a suicidal culture of growth is destroying modern society and the environment (2013, Tross Publishing) and at http://smashwords.com/b/290485One Treaty, One Nation (2015, co-author, Tross Publishing)Two great New Zealanders, Tamati Waka Nene and Apirana Ngata (2015, Tross Publishing)The kingite rebellion (2016, Tross Publishing)Gate pa and Te Ranga, the full story (2018, with John McLean, Tross Publishing)One law or two monarchs (2018, with Roger Childs, Tross Publishing)Dividing a nation, the return to tikanga (2019, Tross Publishing)Unrestrained slaughter, the Maori musket wars 1800-1840 (2020, Tross Publishing)Hone Heke’s war (2021, to appear, Tross Publishing)Books published by Tross Publishing may be purchased by request at the website www.trosspublishing.co.nz and email address [e-mail] copies of A plague of people and Excess capital can be purchased from the author ($20 for Excess capital, $30 for A plague of people, post free in New Zealand – email address, [e-mail]).Go well. It’s a beautiful world.

Book preview

EXCESS CAPITAL

How the fruits of human progress are destroying modern society and the environment.

Work to destruction; The shameless stone in the Age of Sisyphus

By

John Robinson

SMASHWORDS EDITION

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PUBLISHED BY:

John Robinson on Smashwords

First published in 1990 by Technology Monitoring Associates.

21 Oxford St., Martinborough

Copyright 1989 J.L.Robinson

ISBN O 473 00979 X

Printed by Stylex Print, Palmerston North.

Thank you for downloading this free eBook. You are welcome to share it with your friends. This book may be reproduced, copied and distributed for non-commercial purposes, provided the book remains in its complete original form, with the exception of quotes used in reviews.

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THE PARADOX OF PLENTY

Progress could provide a secure and happy life for everybody. Many futures thinkers of the more optimistic 1970s described a leisure society, which had become possible by using the amazing capabilities of modern communications systems to control and expand the use of the scientific discoveries of the industrial revolution. All our physical wants can be satisfied, and the world no longer faces the need to rebuild after the mass destruction of some global conflict. But while a secure and happy life for everybody is theoretically possible, the society of the 1980s had become more unequal and existing social structures were being pulled apart. There was high unemployment rather than reduced working hours and great leisure for all. Why should this be so?

This description of 1989 holds true 30 years later, in 2021.

This book describes how the demands of the profit motive push towards ever higher levels of work activity. The current emphasis on economic growth fails to consider the value of human existence and refuses to countenance any claim for a quality of life which would enjoy the fruits of human success. Instead, Third World peoples have been pressured to borrow the excess moneys of the rich, and have been caught in a poverty trap, now paying more in interest charges than they receive in aid. Highly sophisticated communications systems are used in developed countries to persuade people to consume more and more. Social services, which were once thought to be best provided outside the marketplace, are being privatised for the generation of profit, and environmental destruction continues apace. Economies are not being allowed to settle into stable and sustainable patterns.

This book is based on a wealth of information culled from many sources; the knowledge is there, if only people can break free from the straightjacket of the current conventional wisdom. Only then might society escape from the dystopia which is forecast by futures researcher John Robinson.

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Introductory note to this copy

In January 2021 many economists are no longer warning against borrowing by governments; there are considerable stocks of available cash (excess capital, in the words of this book) and interest rates are low. There is no better time to borrow – a reversal of previous dogma which emphasised fiscal caution.

As made clear in this book, the existence of excess capital (excess to ready profitable for investment) in the developed capitalist West dates from the end of the post-war expansion period, i.e., from about 1972, and the desire to continue to expand that stock has driven much government policy.

This book, Excess capital, was written 32 years ago, in 1989. On re-reading the text, I have been struck at how the world is much the same, which justifies and strengthens my forecasting rule for choice among scenarios, of continuation of policy and behaviour, a lack of appreciation of the evolution of the basic situation.

This book explains the long-term economic trends, with the expectation that there would be no suitable remedial action. Instead of general prosperity and a leisure society, inequality and poverty would increase – as they have. It was written soon after the economic collapse of 1987, and looked forward to the next collapse. The forecast (page 179) was that: "It may then be some time before the stock markets take off again in another forgetful splurge of artificial profit-making and then crash as in 1931 – 1933; I would expect the next crash to occur during the opening years of the next decade." That crash did come in 2008 and, as suggested, the control mechanisms (themselves a denial of a free market) prevented the downturn from reaching the depths of the pre-war crash. The system remains basically unstable and in 2021 we are in yet another economic crisis in the West.

It is evident that a wealthy class rule, internationally and most particularly in the USA, giving rise to inequality and dissatisfaction. Since there is no clear alternative before the public, I warned of the possibility of the election of an autocratic leader, fascist rather than democratic in approach.

Thus page 8: Most people want the new and strange socio-economic downturn to be explained; they need leadership, and choose those leaders who claim most forcefully to have some magic solution. This demand for leadership to lead people out of the wilderness, coupled with widespread ignorance and the human tendency towards a search for scapegoats (including other racial groups) in times of crisis, should warn us of the dangers of a resurgence of fascism.

This theme is expanded on page 74: The public is confused. This is not the first time this century that Western economies have plunged into depression. On the last occasion many nations sought and found father figure leaders, who could offer strong direction. Fascism flourished.

A similar search for someone to lead us all out of the current wilderness, someone who may understand what we cannot see, has been expected in the current depression. It is evident today; even though the complete fascist structure is not supported, there is a willingness to follow policies which are neither well explained nor understood.

The election of Donald Trump as USA President has followed that pattern, and there is continuing support for former president Trump, even after his call for insurrection and the attack on the US Senate.

The interdisciplinary study of long-term trends and, from that, a forecast of the probable future, which has been my career, deals with a wide range of issues, across many disciplines. Here the focus is on economics – I had found no adequate analysis and had therefore to develop my own.

Later, in 2013, I returned to the big picture, the combination of information from many further sources. I recognised the basic feature of a troubled world, the major theme, which is the spread of humanity across this finite globe, to become a plague destroying so much of the natural environment and finally threatening our own destruction. The resulting book, A plague of people, how a suicidal culture of growth is destroying modern society and the environment has been published as a free eBook (http://smashwords.com/b/290485) as well as in hard copy (by Tross Publishing). I have a few copies of both books; while stocks last, I can provide copies ($20 for Excess capital, $30 for A plague of people), post free in New Zealand. I can be reached by email at [e-mail].

This copy has been scanned from a printed copy. Page numbers of the original are given, in brackets, amongst the text; the Contents page below relates to these.

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CONTENTS

I. THE PARADOX OF POVERTY AND PLENTY: AN OVERVIEW 1

II. WORK AND WELL-BEING 12

III. SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS 19

IV. THEORIES OF LONG TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES 37

V. CAPITAL CALLS FOR PROFIT: THE CONSUMER SOCIETY 47

VI. THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT AND THE POVERTY TRAP 52

VII. THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY 67

VIII. THE FEAR OF UNCERTAINTY 74

IX. THE RISE OF THE NEW RIGHT 87

X. THE LAST GREAT DEPRESSION 98

XI. THE HUMAN COST 106

XII. GLOBAL MODELS 116

XIII. THE DESTRUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT 138

XIV. A LEISURE SOCIETY SCENARIO 152

XV. WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT 164

XVI. THE COLLAPSE OF THE CENTRE 169

XVII. THE LEISURE SOCIETY DENIED 181

References 189

Index 199

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(page 1)

Chapter I. THE PARADOX OF POVERTY AND PLENTY: AN OVERVIEW

The twentieth century has been at the same time a period of unexpected achievement and mastery, and of deep misery and waste. Despite unprecedented achievements in the sciences, there have been two world wars, and two global economic collapses, the second of which is gathering force around us now, in 1989.

The developed world is now able to generate enough material goods to provide a good life for everybody. The years following the end of the Second World War were a time of economic expansion. Yet not only are many people in the poorer nations of the third world condemned to lives of deprivation, but unemployment and poverty have spread across the rich nations, and a new mean spirit is abroad. At the same time the worried forecasts of environmentalists, which were dismissed as foolish ‘doomster’ agitations just a decade ago, are coming true at an alarming rate.

Recently the wealthy, developed world has plunged from an improving economic (and social) progress into a long depression. This development repeats the experiences of the past, and indeed was forecast by a theory which was predicated on the observations of 18th and 19th century economic patterns. Each time that civilization develops to a state approaching utopia, some force comes into play which reduces previous wisdom to nothing and society begins to come apart at the seams.

Modern economic systems come to resemble that key modern invention, the motor car. A car is at the same time a source of considerable personal power, convenience and pleasure, and a killer. While the car provides greatly increased individual mobility, the ever-increasing numbers of vehicles eventually bring traffic to a halt, and their pollution of major city centres is dangerous to human health.

The capitalist system, into which the citizens of the developed market countries were born, thrives on growth. Once created, capital must be reinvested into some new profitable enterprise. Such a system eventually experiences speed wobbles when the economy becomes sufficiently prosperous. Each investor seeks a way to maximize profits, and in the marketplace each will identify similar options. It is no surprise then that many investors, be they individuals, companies or nations, will reach similar conclusions and invest in one (potentially profitable) area of economic activity. But there is no mechanism to ensure that the level of investment is appropriate to the potential future market. A period of successful economic growth then leads to overproduction in key sectors, and an economic decline commences. Such a system can create wealth (however unequally spread) but is unable to adapt once the goals of potential material well-being for all are in sight. Capitalist economies follow a classical (page 2) overshoot and decline mode of systems behaviour, and ‘progress’ causes many problems as it solves others. It may be counterproductive to continue with an emphasis on ‘growth’ once demand is satisfied, yet that is the standard reaction to the stresses of saturation. Demands are then made that we all continue to run faster just to keep up, with increasing calls for efficiency, productivity and competition.

Why does society not see the obvious: that the ‘Emperor’ of capitalism ‘has no clothes’? There is a need to manage and control national economies, and to adapt to the considerable successes of recent centuries. Why do we allow society to create misery and poverty in the face of such potential for quality living?

Any call for change questions the status quo and challenges the position of too many powerful interests. The first priority of any successful system is to continue in existence, and the first aim of powerful classes is to protect their existing privileges. Control agents therefore call upon societies to ignore obvious facts and to forget the lessons of past experience in a collective amnesia. The message of the 1987 stock market crash is ignored, and the ‘business as usual’ sign is back up over national and international economies; the expressed aim is still to return to the growth pattern of the 1950s and 1960s, as if that were possible, and as if nothing had changed. The fact that the present depression – dating from around 1968 – was foreseen and described in general terms in advance is simply denied. We therefore inhabit a world which is moving ever deeper into another destructive depression, and yet a world which chooses to ignore the gathering storm clouds.

Civilization appears locked into some strange collective Faustian bargain. Faust (the Dr John Faustus of the German legend (Tvrdikova and Gissing, 1981)) made use of his skills in magic and witchcraft to summon the devils. The last and one of the most important devils was Mephistopheles with whom Faust made a pact, that Mephistopheles should serve Faust for 24 years at the end of which time the soul of Faust would belong to the devil. Faust indeed made good use of his servant during his lifetime, but finally was called upon to pay the price. Similarly, progress demands a price; increases in technological know-how have led to a world of broken cultures, and now the environment, which has been so long taken for granted by a mankind which considered itself to be master of the universe and no longer subject to ecological laws, is approaching collapse.

The comparison of modern civilization with the Faustian myth has been made elsewhere. For example, Firchow in a study of Aldous Huxley’s ‘Brave new world’ entitled The end of utopia quotes Oswald Spengler (‘The decline of the west’) as follows:

Faustian man has become a slave of his creation. His number, and the arrangement of life as he sees it, have been driven by the machine into a path where there is no standing still and no turning back. The peasant, the handworker, even the merchant, appear suddenly as inessential in comparison with the three great figures that the Machine has bred and trained up in the cause of its development: the (page 3) entrepreneur, the engineer, and the factory worker.

What is going wrong? ls there a key to these developments, some way in which we may see more clearly the challenge of our times? The main thesis of this book is that capitalist society has become addicted to work, which has become more than a means to an end, but a goal in itself, a drug for a society which is forever demanding just one more fix. Success keeps driving inexorably into collapse, as a continuing emphasis on effort, ‘efficiency’ and competition cloud our thinking and prevent the realisation of the obvious, which is that a near utopia can be achieved now if only a choice can be made for a relaxed, high-quality and low-throughput life-style, together with respect and responsibility for one another and for the world in which we live.

Modern man appears to be locked. into a world of alternate construction and collapse. It is as if we have been found guilty of some terrible crime against the gods and given a collective sentence of eternal struggle, with the fruits of our endeavors always snatched away just when they seem within reach. Thus we share the fate of the mythical Sisyphus, who is destined to push a boulder time and aga/in up a slope, only to have it roll on down again each time that success seems assured.

Third in Odysseus’ list of those whom he saw suffering great anguish was Sisyphos. He was condemned eternally to roll a great stone up a hill; every time he reached the top with his burden, it slipped from him and rolled down again. (Rose, 1928)

The judges of the dead showed him a huge block of stone – identical in size with that into which Zeus had turned himself when fleeing from Asopus – and ordered him to roll it up the brow of a hill and topple it down the farther slope. He has never yet succeeded in doing so. As soon as he has almost reached the summit, he is forced back by the weight of the shameless stone, which bounces to the very bottom once more; where he wearily retrieves it and must begin all over again, though sweat bathes his limbs, and a cloud of dust rises above his head. (Graves, 1960)

There are two reasons why Sisyphus is an apt symbol for the modern age. First, the story shows the absurdity of an overemphasis on effort isolated from outcome, and of the modern lack of any ability to make proper use of the fruits of human labour and achievement.

The second reason is a recognition of the enduring value of the wisdom of the past. We inhabit the same world as did the Greeks when the myths of Odysseus and Sisyphus were first set down, and it is at our peril that we choose to ignore or to reject the lessons of the -past. In this 1 refute the claims of those modern writers who claim that the world of the late 20th century has been so changed by recent technological developments that nothing can be learnt from history or from past cultures.

We are moving deeper into a ‘Sisyphustic’ age in which greater effort is called for so that nations and peoples may compete in order to produce too many goods for saturated markets, while many starve and few gorge themselves. Precious resources will be squandered, other species will to be driven into extinction by a rapacious homo sapiens, and the environment will be reduced to a state of destruction. Mankind is (page 4) struggling to more quickly foul its own nest.

The present pattern of overshoot and decline is not new; both long-term depressions of the 20th century were forecast in advance, by a theory based on the experiences of previous centuries. Since societies form large systems which exhibit collective behaviours, history is found to be a good tutor. A historical perspective, which considers developments on a long time scale (the ‘long dure’ of historian F Braudel) allows us to identify past periods which are similar to our own, and to thus gain some awareness of what is going on around us and what can be expected in the coming years. A clear understanding of what is happening in day-to-day events can only be obtained from a realisation of long-term patterns of development. The current lack of such knowledge and the downplaying of the wisdom of the past leads to general puzzlement and attendant evils as people seek ‘instant fix’ solutions from ‘father figure’ politicians.

A recognition of the value of historical knowledge, and a concern for the world that is left behind after an individual’s death, is a key element of many cultures. The western world is a ‘now’ generation, lacking in depth. The public is bombarded by selfish advertising brain-washing to an extent not conceived of in past centuries, and only thought of previously in Huxley’s 20th century dystopia, Brave new world (1950). The materialistic ethic forms the basis of a sick culture.

Before considering aspects of long-term economic developments, we should first consider what we want, and what is required of an economy. What are the goals against which to judge success or failure? There is certainly no consensus on this question of priorities in modern society; the answer will be personal, and typical of some subset or class of a complex system containing many warring elements. So my choice will be determined to a large extent by my own accident of birth and my own experiences. This is inevitable; an appreciation of the attitudes of the writer or speaker must always accompany a critical consideration of any argument, in any sphere. Indeed, danger bells should ring out loud and clear whenever a claim for pure ‘objectivity’ is advanced. 1 therefore set out my list of social goals, and note support for my choice from a variety of professional sources.

Human beings are a varied lot. We all have different abilities, we express differing needs and wish for different benefits from society. Any particular culture and society will emphasise certain goals (usually in reaction to a particular environment and circumstances); the ‘choice’ of leaders also will provide some indication of the priorities of the time. This is decidedly not the economists’ one-dimensional ‘rational’ man.

What key human attributes should be emphasised in the basic criteria which can be applied in the definition of a preferred society? ls the self-advancement and quest for self-aggrandisement of the philosophers of the right as basic and universal as claimed?

Many studies of human needs point to a universal desire for belonging. People wish to be a part of a society, and to feel that there is some value in individual existence. There is a desire for a nurturing culture. Work is an essential part of such belonging; (page 5) many modern statistics illustrate the human deprivation and misery associated with the experience of unemployment. Thus work is not only a means to the end of production, but also a way of satisfying essential human needs. The ability of a modern economy to provide for wants by the efforts of just part of the potential work force (working full time) is leading to seriously negative consequences; the time has come to spread the social benefits of employment (through shorter working hours, etc.).

The understanding of human needs, and measures of ‘general well-being (social indicators) are provided by the social sciences. Since the Second World war the social sciences have gone through a phase characterized by a search for ‘hard science’, numerical measurement and ‘absolute truth’. This was a search for a chimera, a will-of-the-wisp. No research, or understanding, sits apart from the surrounding society and philosophies. Once again the social sciences have learned to ‘walk on two legs’ and to combine the understanding of analysis and philosophical debate with the precision of numerical measurement and modelling.

This leads also to the realisation of the universality of models in everyday thinking as well as in the formal sciences. We all interpret the complexity of everyday life through the medium of mental models. The discussion of economic systems is then enhanced by an appreciation of central features of scientific thinking.

I trained as a mathematician and physicist, and worked for about ten years as a research scientist. I find little understanding of the world of science in the general public; the physical sciences are often thought as describing a unique truth, and of providing exact, numerical measures for totally predictable events. Much of my own research has been on the instability of certain fluid systems. This scientific study teaches that (a) the factors which must be taken into account in any real-world analysis (since we never have perfect information on all aspects of a problem, nor can we solve exactly even well-prescribed systems) depend on particular scales of time and space, and on the predominate forces; thus different problems demand effectively different sets of descriptive equations, (b) whereas some systems can be uniquely described by one only solution, in other cases a system may be unstable; while one solution does satisfy all the mathematical criteria, other solutions exist and the system will change in some unpredictable manner, and (c) in some cases the behaviour of a collectivity may be deduced from an understanding of the behaviour of just one element, but often there are added interactions amongst the parts of a system (feed-back), which leads to a quite different collective behaviour.

Not only is there an element of uncertainty in science, but there are different models for different circumstances. The scientist must make the analysis fit the situation. In any investigation, the theory and the mental model applied must be appropriate to the particular question – not dragged willy-nilly from some different field and thus reflecting an unsuitable perspective.

The imperfect public comprehension of the limitations of the sciences have led to some grave political misuses of scientific hypotheses such as the ‘social Darwinism’ of (page 6) the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Scientific thought has all too often been made the handmaiden of power plays by dominant world actors. Similarly, in the ‘science’ of economics today appeals to old, long discredited theories such as ‘trickle down’ and the strange, mythical ‘invisible hand’ continue to bemuse the public and to confuse the debate.

The mental model and way of thinking should be appropriate to the task, and fitted to the system under consideration. It is sometimes possible to perceive a situation more clearly when looking from a distance. All too often we fail to comprehend the woods (the whole) because of a concentration on the trees (the parts). This is the classic fault of reductionism, the modern method of breaking a problem into its constituent parts and then requiring experts to solve the particular problems of those parts. This has worked very well in many spheres, but all too often a complex system seems to have a mind of its own.

The reductionist approach alone is akin to the effort of the six blind men of lndostan (Fabun D, 1968) when they went to see the elephant. The first came against the side and thought it a wall, the second felt the tusk and thought it a spear, the third took the trunk in his hands and thought it a snake, the fourth felt the knee and thought it a tree, the fifth touched the ear and thought it a fan, and the sixth seized the tail and thought it a rope.

And so these men of Indostan disputed loud and long

Each in his own opinion exceeding stiff and strong

Though each was partly in the right, they all were in the wrong.

A move back from a situation, opening the eyes and focussing on the whole picture allows a very quick and easy identification of what is before us; whereas a detailed investigation of isolated elements provided only a confusing and incorrect set of contradictory advice. The overall viewpoint may be more important than any level of ‘expertise’.

Our society is a complex system which demands an overall analysis. However, while many calls have been made for more holistic, integrative work, the imperatives of the social decision-makers are such as to refuse the funding for such ventures. Indeed it is just those holistic studies which are most needed in order to find solutions to the serious collective modern problems which are most under threat from the cost-cutting imperatives of the present depression.

Instead of the current short-term crisis management we might decide to consider long-term, historical trends and to ascertain whether there is any discernible pattern which can cast light on present-day economies. This has indeed been attempted on many occasions, and there exists a number of theories of such long term trends, based on considerable scholarship commencing with the ‘conventional’ economics of the 19th century and continuing with recent computer modelling and analyses of post-war developments. Unfortunately such theories are ignored by the dominant neo-classical economists. They do however have considerable predictive power, and provide a (page 7) framework for the comprehension of much that is going wrong in the prosperous modern era.

The overshoot and decline pattern of behaviour which is being followed leads from growth into a period during which excess capital is chasing insufficient investment opportunities. One first business reaction is to stimulate artificial demand and to establish a consumer society.

But there is just too much money available for the system to usefully absorb. The demand for new investment opportunities then forces a particular pattern of development on national economies. Banking salesmen travel the globe convincing developing countries to take up new loans and to mortgage their futures. As a consequence the debt burden throttles the economies of the poorer nations and threatens to bring down the entire global economy. A call has gone out from the agencies of the wealthy for free markets and a pattern of ‘development’ is forced upon the debtor nations which guarantees the failure of their development efforts. The imported policies emphasise export goods (for the wealthy) over the provision of basics for the population; self-sufficiency is denied and traditional ways are denigrated. The fate of the poor is decided as a part of a global power play.

Within the wealthy nations of the West a similar pattern has emerged. Capital, in its voracious urge for investment and profit has moved on from traditional private enterprise areas (which have ceased the earlier rapid growth) to an attack on public services, which are to be privatised and used for the generation of profit.

Wayward cash balloons out the financial markets, and the prices of stocks move upwards under the pressure of excess capital. This is an unstable system which eventually follows an overshoot and decline mode – with a boom in stock market indices followed by a crash. One such crash occurred in October 1987, and another can be expected in the coming few years.

New technologies allow human labour to be replaced by machines,