Schuman report on Europe: State of the union 2019

By Pascale Joannin

A complete book to understand better the affairs of the European Union in 2019, drafted by specialists.

The Schuman Report 2019 on the State of the Union offers a complete panorama of the European Union.

The latest edition of this reference book is an update on the many challenges the European Union will face in 2019.

EXTRAIT

2019 will mark a decisive turning point for the European Union.
The renewal of all of the European institutions, in an extremely specific international context, will provide an opportunity for decisive choices.
American withdrawal and Chinese ambitions are challenging Europe.
Will it assert its place and role amongst the three major centres of power in the world? Will Russia’s excesses, Turkey’s digressions and the instability on its borders convince it that there cannot be strong diplomacy without credible military power?
Will the emergence of Africa lead Europeans to rethink their relations with the continent of youth, based on understanding and fraternity?
These challenges cannot be ignored and will have to be overcome.
They will certainly force the Union to launch major reform.
European integration has succeeded well beyond all expectation, going beyond the hopes and dreams of its founders.

À PROPOS DE L'AUTEUR

Pascale Joannin is managing director of the Schuman Fondation.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Marie B
• Release date: May 15, 2019
• ISBN: 9791093576398

Book preview

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State of the Union 2019, Schuman Report on Europe is a collective work created on the initiative of the Robert Schuman Foundation within the meaning of Article 9 of Law 57-298 of 11 March 1957 and Article L.113-2 paragraph 3 of the Intellectual Property Code.

Layout: North Compo

Cover: M Graphic Design

Cover image: Baily Lighthouse, Ireland (Getty Images, Roberto Moiola)

Copyright Éditions Marie B / Collection Lignes de repères

ISBN : 979-1-0935-7639-8

This digital document has been produced by Nord Compo.

Contents

Title page

Copyright

Contributors to this book

Texts

Abdelmalek Alaoui

Frank Baasner

Arnaud de Basquiat de Mugriet

Véronique Cayla

Corinne Deloy

Isabelle Duvaux-Béchon

Mariya Gabriel

Jean-Dominique Giuliani

Francisco Juan Gómez Martos

Françoise Grossetête

Pascale Joannin

Alain Lamassoure

Mathilde Lemoine

Andi Mustafaj

Florence Parly

Jean-Claude Piris

Pierre Vimont

Thomas Weissenberg

Maps

Pascal Orcier

Preface - Decisive Choices

1 - European issues at stake in 2019 - Pascale JOANNIN

Elections under high tension

Low turnout

A rise in the populists

New political balances

A new majority

A new redistribution

Which governance for the institutions of Europe?

An equation with several unknowns

A male/female ticket

Redistributed competences

Put that budget away! Out of my sight! - Alain LAMASSOURE

Europe and Disinformation - Mariya GABRIEL

Disinformation, the European approach to a global phenomenon

A European Approach

A code of good practice to tackle disinformation

Increased fact-checking

In support of quality journalism

Educating for greater discernment

An action plan to tackle disinformation

Stronger Europeans for a stronger Europe

New audiovisual consumption habits - Véronique CAYLA

Offering ARTE programmes where possible, on condition that it grows and renews our audiences

This inevitable delinearization of television provides us with a specific responsibility

Our responsibility is still to widen our audience's field of vision

ARTE's role is also to rally people around sensitive experiences which lead to shared emotions.

We aim to turn ARTE into a key educational hub in Europe

A European channel, ARTE aims to become a European incubator for the Franco-German public audio-visual service.

Angela Merkel and Europe - Françoise GROSSETETE

Unshared economic success

German industry at Europe's control panel?

The future of Europe will not be made without Germany

When elections no longer enable the definition of government majorities - Corinne DELOY

I. Populists rising strongly and taking power

a) Italy: the Lega and the Five Stars Movement chase out government parties

b) Hungary: Viktor Orban, winner for the third time running

c) Slovenia: the populist Marjan Sarec takes government of an extremely divided country

II. Elections that no longer define government majorities

a) Sweden: four months of political limbo

b) Latvia: Harmony again in the lead but prevented from governing

c) Luxembourg: the outgoing government re-appointed

III. Four Presidents re-elected

a) Czech Republic: Milos Zeman – only just

b) Finland: Sauli Niinistö wins in the first round

c) Cyprus: Nicos Anastasiades wins hands down

d) Ireland: Michael D. Higgins forced to put his mandate on the line

2 - Which new Europe? - Jean-Dominique GIULIANI

The international context

Also in Europe - populism and crisis of representation

Union governance under challenge

Changes and Surprises?

A need for projection rather than protection

Which methods?

After Brexit, a more United European Union can help its Member States and citizens to confront the challenges of a less secure world - Jean Claude PIRIS

The problems

Suggestions to be discarded

Leave the EU and its specific legal order

Refounding Europe

Reforming the current Treaties

A simple suggestion: better applying the existing treaties

demanding that Member states respect the fundamental values of the European Union

Reforming the euro area and improving its management

Continuing and developing urgently and with determination the EU policy on migration and asylum

Strengthening the democratic legitimacy of the Union policies

Better preparing and potential enlargement

Foreign Policy and fight against terrorism; cooperating closely with the UK 

Better targeting the aims of the UE budget

Encouraging enhanced cooperation

Concluding intergovernmental treaties on specific issues

ANNEX: 18 CONCRETE PROPOSALS

 MAKING EU's FUNDAMENTAL VALUES RESPECTED

 REFORMING THE EURO AREA

 DEVELOPING EU IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM POLICY

STRENGTHENING EU DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY

 PREPARING ANY POSSIBLE ENLARGEMENT

 FOREIGN POLICY AND FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM: COOPERATING WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM

 TARGETING EU BUDGET EFFORTS

 ENCOURAGING ENHANCED COOPERATION

 INTERGOVERNMENTAL TREATIES BY SUBJECT

The Germans and Europe: hesitations and openings - Frank BAASNER

For a European strategic culture - Florence PARLY

Rising danger, act II 

Nothing new in Europe?

Creating a strategic culture in Europe

Strengthening the transatlantic link

The euro: an instrument of sovereignty in Donald Trump's line of sight - Mathilde LEMOINE

Growing self-sufficiency of the European monetary policy

Enemy number 1: strengthening the intergovernmental

The euro area, the major loser in the battle for world leadership

The historic error: underestimating the geopolitical importance of community policies

ESA space programmes supporting economic development and sustainable development - Isabelle DUVAUX-BECHON and Thomas WEISSENBERG

ESA's transversal approach

The UN Sustainable Development Goals and how space supports them and relevant European policies

Case study: SDGs as a thematic approach for Africa

Cooperation with Africa

Main areas and challenges

Actual projects

Next steps

3 - Between China and the USA, Europe seeks its future - Pierre VIMONT

America flying solo

China's unbridled expansionism.

A more lucid, realistic Europe.

Quo vadis China ? - Francisco JUAN GOMEZ MARTOS

The periphery for relocation

The land corridor periphery

The maritime strategy periphery

The periphery of raw materials and food

The European scientific and technological periphery

European policy in the Western Balkans at a cross roads - Andi MUSTAFAJ

The loss of American realism in the region?

The return of the big Russian and Turkish brothers

Chinese geopolitical money

The European Union must learn very quickly to manoeuvre in this area of latency

A trilemma for Europe in Africa - Abdelmalek ALAOUI

Statistics

Olivier Marty

Michaël Yan

An economic trilemma?

The first dimension

The second dimension

The third dimension

Pragmatic answers to urgent issues

The future of European defence lies in the waters of the Gulf of Guinea - Arnaud de BASQUIAT de MUGRIET

4 - The European Union seen in statistics

List of abbreviations:

1. Weight of the European Union within the world economy: current position and prospects

1.1. Demographic weight of the European Union and Member States

1.1.1. Population of the European Union and international comparisons: population by country, population growth, migration rate

1.1.2. Population ageing in the European Union: population per age bracket, dependency ratio, life expectancy, birth rate

1.1.3. Asylum applications in EU Member States and associated countries

1.2. The EU's economic and financial weight in the World

1.2.1. Distribution of global GDP, at purchasing power parity (2018)

1.2.2. GDP at purchasing power parity of EU Member States and world ranking (2018)

1.2.3. Development of GDP excluding State contributions (2010-2018)

1.2.4. Distribution of GDP between the various sectors by country, and developments (2000-2017)

1.2.5. Levels and growth rates of GDP/inhabitant of EU countries and international comparisons (2009-2017)

1.2.6. GDP Projections (2050)

1.3. Europe in international trade

1.3.1. The development of world trade

1.3.2. Protectionist measures in G20 countries

1.3.3. Trade balances: European Union and international comparisons

1.3.4. Extra-community imports and exports per EU Member State

1.3.5. Foreign direct investment incoming to the European Union and international comparisons

1.4. EU external action

1.4.1.EU States' defence spending

1.4.2. Leading world weapons exporters

1.4.3 Public development assistance: EU Member States, EU institutions and international comparisons

1.4.4 Non-EU investment by the EIB (2017)

1.4.5 Western sanctions against Russia within the context of the crisis in Ukraine

2. Post-Brexit Europe: Market integration, monetary policy and convergence of European economies

2.1. Integration of EU markets for goods and services and of EU financial markets

2.1.1. Developments in intra-community trade in goods in the European Union

2.1.2. Developments in intra-community trade in services in the European Union

2.1.3. Current state of regulations and weight of various service sectors

2.1.4. The euro as an international reserve currency

2.1.5 Development of sovereign rates at two and ten years (2008-2018)

2.2. The European monetary policy

2.2.1. Developments in the base rate of the ECB, the Fed and the BoE (2008-2018)

2.2.2. Expansion of the balance sheets of the ECB, the Fed and the BoE

2.2.3. Distribution of ECB's purchases of net assets within the context of its extended APP programme (Quantitative Easing)

2.3. Recreating convergence within the European Union and the euro area

2.3.1 Growth rates: Members States, euro area and EU

2.3.2 Inflation rates: Member States, Euro area, European Union

2.3.3. Public deficits and debts: Member States, Euro Area and European Union

2.3.4. Developments in current account balances: Member States, European Union, euro area

2.3.5. Development in unit costs of labour: Member States, European Union, euro area

2.3.6. Private debt rates: Member States, euro area

2.3.7. Taxation in the European Union: VAT, income tax, corporate tax, tax on the digital sector

2.4. Resources and the use of aid programmes for States in difficulty in the European Union and the euro area

3. Growth and employment in Europe: the need for competitiveness, investment, competition and energy and digital transition

3.1. The unemployment challenge and social policies

3.1.1. Unemployment rate: Member States, euro area, European Union

3.1.2. Unemployment rates (long and short term): Member States, euro area, European Union

3.1.3. Unemployment rate per age bracket: Member States, euro area, European Union

3.1.4. Public sector employment in the European Union

3.1.5. Employment and free movement

3.1.6. The flexibility of labour markets

3.1.7. Social indicators : Gini coefficient, poverty rate, inequalities of income distribution

3.2. The human capital challenges

3.2.1. Public and private spending on education (2015)

3.2.2. Use of in-service training (2017)

3.2.3 Health Spending (2008-2015)

3.2.4. Attractiveness of the European university system (2016)

3.3. Development of European investment

3.3.1. Investment development: Member States, European Union, euro area

3.3.2. Development of credit standards: Member States, European Union, euro area (2003-2018)

3.3.3. Development in investments in the digital sector

3.3.4. Savings rates and household savings (2008-2017)

3.3.5. R&D spending in Member States and international comparisons

3.4. The imperative of competitiveness, competition and innovation

3.4.1. Unit cost of labour

3.4.2. Labour productivity per hour worked

3.4.3 Trade balances

3.4.4 Exports of high-tech products

3.4.5 Synthesized indicators of competitiveness and innovation

3.5 The sustainable development challenges

3.5.1 Member States' energy dependency

3.5.2 Member States' energy mix

3.5.3 Energy efficiency indicators

3.5.4 Developments in the price of raw materials (oil, gold, copper) (2008-2018)

3.5.5 National spending on environmental protection per Member State

3.5.6 Economic losses caused by extreme climatic events

3.5.7 EIB action on climate (2018)

3.6 The digital single market

3.6.1 The Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI)

3.6.2 Map of the DESI

3.6.3 Ranking of Member States in terms of the DESI

4. The European Union budget: an obligation of means

4.1.1. EU financial framework (2014-2020)

4.1.2. Distribution of European budget by type of income (2018)

4.1.3. Distribution of European budget by type of spending (2018)

4.1.4. Budget devoted to sustainable growth (common agricultural policy, the environment, sustainable development) (2018)

4.1.5. Budget devoted to cohesion policies (2018)

4.1.6. Aid to neighbourhood countries (2014-2020)

4.1.7. Budget devoted to competitiveness policies (2018)

4.1.8. The European Union as a world player (2018)

4.1.9. Budget devoted to administration (2018)

4.1.10. Budget devoted to security, citizenship and justice (2018)

Contributors to this book

Texts

Abdelmalek Alaoui

CEO of the Guepard Group, a consulting company on strategic communication and a pan-African investment holding; Abdelmalek Alaoui is notably a shareholder in "La Tribune Afrique" and the "Huffington Post Maghreb". A graduate of Science Po Paris, holder of an MBA from the HEC and a postgraduate degree from the Economic Warfare School of Paris, he is a renowned specialist in strategies of influence communication. He has served as an advisor to some of the most important market capitalisations in Africa, as well as many governments. He is now working on investments in the media. His most recent work Le Temps du Continent won the 2018 Turgot Francophone economic book prize.

Frank Baasner

After studying literature and psychology at the Universities of Bonn, Tübingen and Paris, Frank Baasner is focused his PhD on the European Enlightenment. Since 1995, he has held a Chair in Romance Literature at the University of Mannheim. He has occupied the position of guest professor in institutions in Austria, Spain and Sweden. In 2003 he was elected member of the Academy of Science and Literature of Mainz. Since 2002 he has headed the Franco-German Institute of Ludwigsburg (dfi), the centre for Franco-German cooperation, research and consultancy, established in 1948.

Arnaud de Basquiat de Mugriet

Entered the Naval School in 1992, a frigate captain Arnaud de Basquiat receives several on-board assignments before volunteering to serve in Africa on a cooperation assignment in Djibouti. In 2011, he joined the Africa cell at the Operations Planning and Command Centre, as a case officer for the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Guinea. From 2015 to 2018 he served at the Africa Department of the Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS), before joining the Chief of Naval Staff as head of the module Africa-Near and Middle East.

Véronique Cayla

A graduate of Sciences Po Paris, Véronique Cayla joined the French Ministry for Culture in 1973, then the cabinet of the Secretary of State for Culture in 1974. In 1982, she was appointed Deputy Director of the Paris Film Library then its General Manager. In 1992, she was appointed Director of MK2 and CEO of LMK-Images SA, until her appointment as member of the Audio-visual Council (CSA) in January 1999. At the end of 2000, she became co-General Director of the Festival of Cannes and in 2005 she took over the management of the National Centre for Cinematography and the Moving Picture (CNC). In 2011 she became Chair of the Stewardship Committee of ARTE GEIE. Since 2015 she has been Chair of the ARTE France Board.

Corinne Deloy

Graduate of Sciences Po and holder of a DEA in political sociology from the University of Paris I-Pantheon Sorbonne, Corinne Deloy was a journalist for the Nouvel Observateur and Secretary General for the Foundation for Political Innovation (Fondapol). She is currently the Studies Manager at the Centre de Recherches Internationales of Sciences Po (CERI) and author of the Robert Schuman Foundation’s European Elections Monitor (EEM).

Isabelle Duvaux-Béchon

Head of the Member States Relations and Partnerships Office for the European Space Agency (ESA)., Isabelle Duvaux-Béchon is responsible for relations with ESA’s 22 Member States and for the identification and coordination of ESA transverse initiatives linked to Global Challenges (Space for Earth) and of the partnerships with non-space actors, as well as developing the strategy for development cooperation. She joined ESA in 1987. She is a graduate of the Ecole Centrale of Paris and auditor at the Institut des Hautes Études de Défense Nationale (IHEDN). She is an accredited member of the International Academy of Astronautics.

Mariya Gabriel

Between 2009 and 2017 Mariya Gabriel was a MEP for the EPP of which she became Deputy Chair as of 2014. Since 2012 she has been Deputy Chair of the EPP Women. Prior to this she was parliamentary secretary of the MEPs from the political party GERB within the EPP from 2008 and 2009. A Bulgarian national, she is European Commissioner for the Digital Economy and Society.

Jean-Dominique Giuliani

Chairman of the Robert Schuman Foundation. Jean-Dominique Giuliani was the director of the cabinet of the President of the Senate, René Monory and director at SOFRES. Former special advisor to the European Commission and a member of ARTE’s Supervisory Board, he coproduced the Permanent Atlas of the European Union, Editions Marie B, (4th edition, 2018). In January 2019, he was appointed Chair of the Institut Libre d’Etude des Relations Internationales (ILERI). He is the author of La Grande bascule – Le XXIème siècle européen ", editions EDG. Paris, 2019.

Francisco Juan Gómez Martos

An economist and political analyst, Francisco Juan Gómez Martos was the Head of Institutional Cooperation with the national parliaments at the European Parliament. Before this he taught public finance for ten years at the Autonomous University of Madrid. Currently he is visiting professor at the University Adam Mickiewicz in Poznan (faculty of Political Science). He is the author of several academic publications in European reviews and of many articles published in the newspaper El País.

Françoise Grossetête

A graduate of the Faculty of Law of Lyons (Masters in Public Law and Political Science) and of the Institut d’Etudes Supérieures de Droit Social et du Travail, Françoise Grossetête started her career as a local councillor and Delegate Town Councillor and Deputy Mayor of Saint-Etienne (1983-2008). She was Chair of the Natural Regional Park of Pilat from 1989 to 2008. MEP since 1994, she has been Deputy Chair of the EPP Group in the European Parliament since 2014, a position that she held previously (1999-2007), and a member of the Environment and Industry Committees, as well as a member of the EU-Russia Parliamentary Delegation. Former Regional Advisor of Rhône-Alpes, she is notably chair of the European Alliance against Alzheimer’s Disease.

Pascale Joannin

General Manager of the Robert Schuman Foundation. Auditor at the Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale (IHEDN), Pascale Joannin co-produced the "Permanent Atlas of the European Union" + editions MarieB, (4th edition, 2018). She is the author of L’Europe, une chance pour la femme, a Robert Schuman Foundation Paper no 22, 2004. She has published a number of studies on European issues.

Alain Lamassoure

A graduate of Sciences Po and of the ENA, Alain Lamassoure was European Affairs Minister (1993-1995), Minister for the Budget; a spokesperson for the French government (1995-1997), and a MP at the National Assembly from 1986 to 1995 and was elected for the first time to the European Parliament in 1989. Member of the high-level group on own resources (HLGOR) and former member of the European Convention, he chaired the Budgets Committee (2009-2014), as well as the special committees on tax rulings (TAX 1 and 2) and was rapporteur on the common consolidated corporate tax base (ACCIS). He is a member of the Constitutional Affairs Committee (AFCO) as well as the Special Committee on financial crime, fraud and tax evasion (TAX 3).

Mathilde Lemoine

PhD in Economic Sciences from Sciences Po, holder of a DEA in economy and international finance and a Masters in applied economics of the University Paris-Dauphine, Mathilde Lemoine is a macro-economist. She has published many books including Les grandes questions d’économie et de finance internationale, editions de Boeck, 3e ed., 2016. She was a macro-economic Advisor in several ministerial cabinets, a member of the Economic Analysis Council (EAC) and the Haut Conseil des Finances Publiques. A professor at Science Po, she is currently Group Chief Economic of the Edmond de Rothschild Group. She is a member of several boards including the École normale supérieure (ENS).

Andi Mustafaj

A graduate in public law from the University Panthéon-Assas Paris 2 in 2011, Andi Mustafaj started his career as a civil servant at the Ministry of Justice in Albania before becoming advisor to the Albanian Minister of Justice. He joined the 2014-2015 Winston Churchill year at the École Nationale d’Administration (ENA) in France as a foreign student. He is deputy to the Director of M&A and Strategic Development at Saint-Gobain and is involved in many different European think-tanks like the Belles Feuilles group and the Robert Schuman Foundation, for which he notably was a rapporteur in the BrexLab.

Florence Parly

Since 21st June 2017, Florence Parly has been French Minister for the Armed Forces. After studying at Sciences Po and ENA she joined the civil administrators in the Budget Department. In 1997 she joined Prime Minister Lionel Jospin’s cabinet as budgetary affairs advisor. She was Secretary of State for the Budget from 2000 to 2002. She joined the Air France group where she occupied the post of Director for Strategic Investment (2006 – 2008), the Deputy General Director for Cargo (2008-2012) and finally Deputy General Director for short haul activities in 2013. She joined the SNCF in 2014, firstly as Delegate General Manager, then as of 2016, as General Manager of SNCF Voyageurs.

Jean-Claude Piris

Consultant in European law and International public law, an honorary State Councillor, a former diplomat at the UN, and legal director for the OECD, from 1988 to 2018 Jean-Claude Piris was General Manager for the legal department of the European Council -Council of the European Union and legal consultant of the conferences that negotiated the Maastricht and Lisbon Treaties. He notably published The Lisbon Treaty, Cambridge University Press, 2010 and The Future of Europe: Towards a Two-Speed EU ?, Cambridge University Press, 2012. He contributes regularly to many books and has published a great number of articles on Europe and particularly on Brexit.

Pierre Vimont

A graduate in law, and of Science Po, an alumnus of the ENA, Pierre Vimont is an Ambassador of France. In 1977, he joined the French diplomatic service. In 1999 he was appointed Ambassador, a permanent Representative for France at the European Union. Director of the cabinet of three Foreign Affairs Ministers, he was then appointed Ambassador of France to the USA, from 2007 to 2010, and then became General Executive Secretary in the European Service for External Action (2010-2014). In 2015, he was appointed Personal Envoy for the preparation of the Conference of La Valette on migration. From 2016 to 2018 he was mediator to the French Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Thomas Weissenberg

An economist (PhD in Economics), Thomas Weissenberg joined the European Space Agency in 2016. He works in the External Relations Department at ESA’s HQ in Paris. He has been active in the space sector since 2002. He worked at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) for 14 years in the sectors of international relations and industrial policy. He was head of International Relations there from 2010 to 2016.

Statistics

Olivier Marty

Alumnus of Sciences Po, the LES and the University Paris-Dauphine, Olivier Marty currently manages a consultancy firm that he created after a few years in finance – banks and capital venture. He teaches economics and European issues at Sciences Po, HEC and at the ESSEC of Ulm. A contributor to the Robert Schuman Foundation where he is a member of the BrexLab and the author of (with Nicolas Dorgeret) Connaitre et comprendre l’Union européenne : 35 fiches sur les institutions européennes (prefaced by Jean-Dominique Giuliani), Ellipses, 2018.

Michaël Yan

Michaël Yan has been studying at Sciences Po since 2013. After passing his degree in 2013 he joined the Europe-Asia campus of Sciences Po in Le Have where he studied for two years. After a year’s university exchange at the University of Hong Kong, he joined the Masters in Public Affairs at Sciences Po.

Maps

Pascal Orcier

An alumnus of the ENS Lyons, agrégé, PhD in geography, a specialist of the Baltic regions, Pascal Orcier is currently a teacher at the Jean-Moulin Lycée in Draguignan (83). Author of La Lettonie en Europe, Zvaigzne ABC, 2005, Régions à la découpe, Atlante, 2015, he contributes to many school and university manuals, atlases and collective works.

Preface

Decisive Choices

2019 will mark a decisive turning point for the European Union.

The renewal of all of the European institutions, in an extremely specific international context, will provide an opportunity for decisive choices.

American withdrawal and Chinese ambitions are challenging Europe.

Will it assert its place and role amongst the three major centres of power in the world? Will Russia’s excesses, Turkey’s digressions and the instability on its borders convince it that there cannot be strong diplomacy without credible military power?

Will the emergence of Africa lead Europeans to rethink their relations with the continent of youth, based on understanding and fraternity?

These challenges cannot be ignored and will have to be overcome.

They will certainly force the Union to launch major reform.

European integration has succeeded well beyond all expectation, going beyond the hopes and dreams of its founders.

The continent’s internal market has opened up, intra-community trade has developed, and European exports boosted. Europe’s economy has transformed in a way unimaginable 70 years ago.

Rising to these new challenges, the Union must open up to this a new era in its integration. It has to achieve its independence and prepare, at some point, to take responsibility for its own security, even if we do not dare to put names on situations, and that in Europe there is still cautious talk of strategic self-sufficiency.

Europeans who depend on their allies for their security must change this dependency to achieve their self-sufficiency. They must accept mutual self-reliance so that they no longer have to assume strategic or financial choices that are not always in line with their own interests. They have to learn to protect themselves from political and financial predators, via a clearly updated competition policy.

Will they also have the clarity of mind to establish the notion of European preference, which is vital at least for spending financed by their own tax revenues, as is the case everywhere else in the world?

There are as many questions to be debated and which deserve clear response.

They will define Europe’s future profile, possibly even its shape and governance. Since they demand amendments to the treaties, European Member States will have to hold discussions, which finally openly focus on the position and role of Europe in the world.

In the absence of consensus, divisions and splits will ensue. An agreement of principle, on the other hand, would provide greater guarantee for the revival of European integration. Finally, we cannot neglect the hypothesis of the agreement on the part of some to show the example towards enhanced European cooperation and to ensure the efficacy of new common public policies in vital areas such as migration, security, justice and defence.

The future legislature of the new institutions cannot afford not to innovate!

Jean-Dominique Giuliani

1

European issues at stake in 2019

Pascale JOANNIN

As every five years the European Union will find itself in a particularly important year in 2019, because its main institutions are to be renewed.

Firstly, Europeans, according to their Member States, are being invited to elect the 705 MEPs of the European Parliament from 23rd to 26th May. The number of MEPs will be reduced in comparison with 2014 (when there were 751) due to the planned departure on 29th March next of the UK from the European Union.

Then, depending on the results of this election and the coalition necessary to form a majority, MEPs will meet as of the beginning of July (date of the start of a new legislature) to elect the President of the Parliament and officials to the various bodies (office, quaestors, committees, etc.) and on the other hand, in mid-July to confirm – after a hearing – the appointment of the President of the European Commission, who will be appointed by the heads of State and government.

The latter will then have to put his team together based on appointment proposals made by the States. The candidate commissioners will in turn be convened for hearings in September by the MEPs to be invested, collectively if they are selected, at the end of October, since the new Commission is to enter office on 1st November.

Finally, at the same time, the heads of State and government will appoint the future president of the European Council for a two-and-a-half-year mandate, which is renewable once, to start on 1st December.

In 2019 the 8-year mandate of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), appointed by the European Council, will also come to an end in November.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the outgoing President of the Commission, has said that he will not be standing for a second mandate, and Donald Tusk, President of the European Council is coming to the end of his second and last mandate. Therefore, the leaders of the main European institutions will change. The interest of this is as important for the electorate, as it is for candidates and observers.

Elections under high tension

Since 1979 the European elections have been held by direct universal suffrage after a proportional vote in all Member States. Each State holds a number of seats depending on its population, ranging from 6 for the smallest States (Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg) to 96 for the most populous (Germany). Due to the departure of the UK, the number of seats granted to some States (14) has increased slight, taking into account their demographic development. France and Spain will have five more seats, Italy and the Netherlands 3, Ireland 2, Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Sweden 1 more each, i.e. 27 seats. This aims to respect the principle of degressive proportionality to a greater degree.

The only European institution elected directly by the citizens, the Parliament should be the focus of real interest. Unfortunately, the turnout rate has decreased constantly since 1979, falling to only 42% in 2014. What will happen this year?

Low turnout

Some might think that this is a result of a certain fatigue on the part of those who have been voting since 1979, but the new Member States do not turn out to vote either; the lowest turnout levels are even, and rather in many of these latter States, as for example the Czech Republic (18.2%) or Slovakia (13%).

The European election is still largely misunderstood, with few citizens knowing the exact role and powers of the European Parliament, and very few know who their MEPs are. Yet, the competences of the European Parliament have increased over time (budget, structural fund, 1st pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy, etc.) which make it a true co-legislator. Some MEPs have however had a front-stage national career: either before they have had seats in Parliament, as is the case of France, which sends many former ministers and national MPs to Strasbourg. Some former ministers, even former Prime Ministers, also come from other States like Belgium for example; or after having sat in Parliament: Croatian Prime Minister Andrzej Plenkovic and Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Karins.

Europe’s citizens do not seem very motivated by the vote in this election, whose stakes they gauge badly. There is not just one election, but as many in the individual Member States. The national result does not reflect the final sum of all those individual results, and therefore, the European results. The latter is all the more difficult to understand, because no party wins a majority alone and a coalition is necessary. Moreover, this brings parties together, which would otherwise be opposites in the Member States.

The most recent polls show ¹ that 68% of Europeans deem that their country benefits from EU membership. It is the highest score seen since 1983. 49% say they are happy with the democratic functioning of the Union, 48% deem that their vote counts in the Union and 48% want the European Parliament to play a greater role. But one of the explanations for this disaffection possibly lies in the fact that 68% say they do not trust political parties in general.

To palliate this, many initiatives like for example this time I’m voting

, have emerged to encourage voters to fulfil their civic duty and to encourage greater citizen participation in the next European elections. Let us hope they will indeed be followed with interest and not just by those who want to challenge the European project.

A rise in the populists

Many observers deem that the European elections of 2019 are going to be very dangerous and that a tsunami of populist forces could hit Parliament, with some going as far as imagining that they will hold the majority.

Although it