Right now, the sobering truth is that the future of Europe hinges on the weather. It seems absurd. But whether this winter is cold or warm will determine if Europe gets through the next several months without major economic, political, or social stress.
We are in this situation because, thanks to the clash with Russia over Ukraine, Europe has lost roughly a third of its regular gas supply. Much of Europe, particularly in the former Soviet bloc, relied on Russian gas for electricity generation, home heating, cooking, and industrial purposes. Germany and Italy, the largest and third-largest economies in the eurozone, were also heavily dependent on Russian gas.
Since last spring, as the scale of the conflict became clear, Europe has been bracing for the worst. While buying as much Russian gas as it can, Europe has been scrambling to sign new gas deals and make up the impending shortfall by buying up cargoes of liquefied natural gas, or LNG. Over the summer, as Russia’s situation became more dire, deliveries of Russian gas slowed to a fraction of their normal level. Gas
