Beginner’s Guide to Probability: Now’s Your Chance!
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About this ebook
In terms of academic and professional education and training, probability is taught and examined in a very wide variety of settings and at a wide variety of levels. for example, we can find probability at GCSE level (16 year school exit exams) and we can find them at final stage Professional Accountancy level, for example CIMA Stage 4, Financial Management.
Duncan Williamson
Duncan Williamson was one of the last, best-known of Scotland's traveller storytellers. The son, grandson and great grandson of nomadic tinsmiths, basket makers, pipers and storytellers, he became known as one of the world's finest oral story-tellers, with over 3,000 stories committed to memory. He died in November 2007.
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Beginner’s Guide to Probability - Duncan Williamson
Beginner’s Guide to Probability: now’s your chance!
Duncan Williamson
excelmaster.co
February 2016
Contents
Beginner’s Guide to Probability: now’s your chance!
Introduction
Probability in Real Life
The Car Insurance Problem
Roll the Dice
Let’s Win the Lottery … Not
Want to play a game where you’ve got a much better chance of winning?
The Probability of Contacting other Civilisations
An Overview with Some Excellent Examples from History
Objective and Subjective Probabilities
All Roads Probably Lead to 1
At Random
Exercise 1
Exercise 1 Solution
Probability of Success
Exercise 2
Exercise 2 Solution
Put it all Together now: exercises to confirm the basics
Exercise 3
Exercise 3 Solution
Exercise 4
Exercise 4 Solution
Exercise 5
Exercise 5 Solution
Exercise 6
Exercise 6 Solution
Exercise 7
Exercise 7 Solution
Deduction: elementary my dear Watson!
Thanks for the Complement, Holmes
Example 8
Example 8 Solution
Example 9
Example 9 Solution
Example 10
Example 10 Solution
Mutually Exclusive Events
Example 11
Example 11 Solution
Probabilities and Frequencies
Example 12
Example 12 Solution
Relative Frequency Diagrams
Possibility Spaces
Example 13
Example 13 Solution
Example 14
Example 14 Solution
Tree Diagrams
Example 15
Example 15 Solution
Using the Tree Diagrams: independent events
Example 16
Example 16 Solution
Example 17
Example 17 Solution
Sorting out Hideous Outcomes: use plain language
Example 18
Example 18 Solution
Example 19
Example 19 Solution
Binomial Probabilities
Characteristics of a Binomial Random Variable
Example 20
Example 20 Solution
Example 21
Example 21 Solution
Example 22
Example 22 Solution
Predicting each Event: combinations
Binomial Probability Tables
Binomial Probability Table Examples
Working Without the Binomial Probability Tables
Example 23
Example 23 Solution
Example 24 do
Example 24 Solution
Excel, the Formula and Cumulative Results
Conclusions
References
Appendix Mathematical Notation
The Probability Scale
The Complementary Event Ec
The Addition Rule: mutually exclusive events
Exhaustive Events
The Multiplication Rule
Combinations Formula
Conditional Probability
Statistical Independence
The Cumulative Probability Distribution Function
The Discrete Uniform Distribution
The Geometric Distribution
Cumulative Probabilities
Beginner’s Guide to Probability: now’s your chance!
This book should be of interest to anyone beginning their study of probability analysis. Based on mathematical examples, it will satisfy students working towards a variety of examinations that includes GCSE Mathematics, A Level Mathematics, Professional Accountancy examinations at level 1, Undergraduate Accountancy and Business courses.
In terms of academic and professional education and training, probability is taught and examined in a very wide variety of settings and at a wide variety of levels. for example, we can find probability at GCSE level (16 year school exit exams) and we can find them