World Climate: Causes, Effects and Solutions

By Terje Instefjord

In this book, new equations showing the relationships between CO2 content in the atmosphere, CO2 related green house effect, global temperature and sea level are derived.

Summary of the findings:
1) The earth's temperature will over time increase with at least 3°C relative to the current level.
2) The sea level will over time increase with at least 25 m relative to the current level.
3) It will cost approx. 40,000 billion USD (50% of the worlds GNP) to replace all fossil fuels with renewable energy.

"A well-constructed and readable book that is explained in accessible, yet credible language. From start to finish this is a well-researched read backed up by hard science and solid references. Importantly, the book isn’t full of doom saying to spur people into action, it is a book that proposes actionable goals. Written with confidence and authority, and supported by well-dissected research. World Climate is a timely and prescient publication for experts and laymen alike." Self-Publishing Review, ★★★★

• Language: English
• Publisher: Instefjord Forlag
• Release date: Oct 16, 2019
• ISBN: 9788269088618

Book preview

Instefjord

Copyright © 2019 Terje Instefjord.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted by any means—whether auditory, graphic, mechanical, or electronic—without written permission of the author, except in the case of brief excerpts used in critical articles and reviews. Unauthorized reproduction of any part of this work is illegal and is punishable by law.

Because of the dynamic nature of the Internet, any web addresses or links contained in this book may have changed since publication and may no longer be valid. The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

Any people depicted in stock imagery provided by Getty Images are models, and such images are being used for illustrative purposes only.

Certain stock imagery © Getty Images.

ISBN: 978-82-690886-0-1 (sc)

ISBN: 978-82-690886-1-8 (e)

Lulu Publishing Services rev. date: 09/27/2019

Excerpt

In this book, known climate data from various time periods within the last 20 million years of Earth’s history are used to derive new mathematical equations describing the relationships between atmospheric CO2 content, temperature, and sea level.

To ensure human activity does not affect the results, all data used in the calculations are from time periods when the climatic effects of the increase in atmospheric CO2 content caused by human activity were insignificant or non-existent.

Climatic data from the following time periods are used:

1. Pre-industrial conditions

2. The ice ages (100,000–800,000 years ago)

3. Prehistoric periods of warmer climate (3–4 and 20 million years ago)

The following equations are derived:

1. An equation showing the relationship between atmospheric CO2 content and temperature:

Δt (CO2 related greenhouse effect measured in °C) = CO2 content in ppm / 22

The equation shows that the earth’s temperature over time will increase by about 1˚C for each 22 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 content.

2. An equation showing the relationship between atmospheric CO2 content and sea level:

Δh (sea level increase if all remaining ice should melt) = 7.3 / (CO2 content in ‰)²

The equation shows that the sea level over time will increase by about 1 m for each 4 ppm increase in atmospheric

CO2 content.

During the prehistoric periods of warmer climate, the atmospheric CO2 content was approximately 400 ppm. The mean global temperature was approximately 3˚C above pre-industrial, and the sea level was approximately 25 m above current.

As the current atmospheric CO2 content of 415 ppm is well above the prehistoric level, both temperature and sea level will eventually increase to levels above the prehistoric levels.

How fast these increases will develop, and the possible consequences of the increases are discussed.

To reduce, or preferably stop, the increase in atmospheric CO2 content, various corrective actions to replace fossil fuel with environmentally friendly alternatives are discussed. If fully implemented, the proposed corrective actions will stop the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

If the proposed corrective actions continue after the increase is stopped, CO2 content will eventually start to decline. The total cost to stop the increase of atmospheric CO2 is estimated to be about 40 trillion USD.

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Ice extent in the Arctic since 1850.

Figure 2: Global mean surface temperature change from 1880.

Figure 3: Relationship between atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea level.

Figure 4: Change in SST, 1880–2015

Figure 5: Global mean SST anomalies, 1880–2015

Figure 6: Observed and projected temperature anomalies through 2100

Figure 7: Extrapolation of observed mean surface temperature change since 1880

Figure 8: Mean temperature and sea level during the last interglacial period

Figure 9 Simplified cross section of the Greenland ice cap

Figure 10: Greenland melt extent in 2016

Figure 11: Basal ice shelf melting below sea level

Figure 12: Antarctica without ice

Figure 13: Sea level rise after the last ice age

Figure 14: Future North Sea coastline with 415 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere

Figure 15: Future North Sea coastline with 500 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.

Figure 16: Future North America coastline if all land-based ice melts

Figure 17: Price history of silicon PV cells.

Figure 18: Section of a floating solar power plant

Figure 19: Long-term mean solar radiation (kWh/m²) reaching Earth’s surface

Figure 20: Total ground area required for 100% solar based renewable energy production

1

Preface

Awareness that Earth’s climate is changing is slowly growing outside the ranks of the most eager environmentalists. Despite this growing understanding, many decision makers still tend to express verbal support but are reluctant to back the necessary corrective actions required to avoid further deterioration of the climate.

One important reason for this lack of commitment is the lack of concrete facts describing how various greenhouse gases will affect the climate.

Without concrete facts, many participants in the ongoing climate discussions often tend to rely more on their own personal assumptions or convictions, rather than on the many estimates and predictions being published with diverging assessments. As a result, controversial and unpopular decisions are often postponed indefinitely or at least until after the next election.

To help replace current skepticism and hesitation with real commitment, the cause–effect relationship between the primary greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the climate should be better and more accurate explained than is the case today.

Contrary to widespread assumptions, we have sufficient knowledge today about both the current and historic climate to derive equations describing the impacts of the most impactful greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide, CO2) in the atmosphere on the earth’s climate.

In this book, historical climate data from different time periods within the last 20 million years are used to derive new mathematical equations describing these impacts.

All data used are from before human activity seriously began to affect the climate. The data have been taken from publicly available publications and magazines.

I hope that the new equations describing the relationships between atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level derived in this book can help remove some of the uncertainties that weaken the understanding of the environmental challenges we face and have to meet.

If you find anything that you believe may be incorrect or could be better explained, please send feedback to [e-mail].

The book is divided into four main parts:

• Chapters 2 and 3 describe book objectives, with a brief overview of some of the most referenced global warming reports published during the second half of 2018.

• Chapters 4 and 5 derive mathematical equations describing the relationships between atmospheric CO2 content, temperature, and sea level.

• Chapter 6 discusses potential rate of change scenarios for temperature and sea level.