Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents: Environmental Impacts: Modeling-Identification-Prediction-Optimization-Mitigation

By Magdalena Bogalecka

Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructures Accidents presents a probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences. This include three models of the process of the events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of the environment threats and the process of environment degradation. This is all created and adopted to the maritime transport critical infrastructure, with a focus on shipping networks applied to accident consequences modeling.

Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructures Accidents is devoted to the assessment methods of consequences of environmental damages, with application to ship accidents. It is a new approach that has never been proposed and applied before and includes methods of modeling, identification, prediction and optimization to allow the reader to better understand the effects of these accidents on our oceans. Moreover, the general procedures and the new strategy presented in the book aim to lower environment losses concerned with chemical releases caused by an accident of ship critical infrastructure network operating within the Baltic Sea or world sea waters.

• Provides a complete approach to accident consequences modeling, identification, prediction and optimization
• Presents the theoretical background, which can be applied practically to maritime critical infrastructure accident consequences analysis
• Includes a general model for critical infrastructure accident consequences which is globally applicable and with wide applications in various industrial sectors

• Language: English
• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Release date: Nov 1, 2019
• ISBN: 9780128198995

Magdalena Bogalecka

Dr Magdalena Bogalecka is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Industrial Commodity Science and Chemistry at the Faculty of Entrepreneurship and Quality Science of Gdynia Maritime University. She has over 20 years teaching and research experience. She has published more than 80 papers mainly on safety of maritime transport of dangerous goods, sea accidents and rescue actions at sea.

Book preview

Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents

Environmental Impacts Modeling—Identification—Prediction—Optimization—Mitigation

Magdalena Bogalecka

Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

Preface

Acknowledgment

Chapter 1. Introduction to the analysis of critical infrastructure accident consequences

Abstract

Chapter Outline

1.1 Basic notions of process of initiating events

1.2 Basic notions of process of environment threats

1.3 Basic notions of process of environment degradation

Chapter 2. Shipping as a critical infrastructure

Abstract

Chapter Outline

2.1 Overview of ship accidents at Baltic Sea and world sea waters

2.2 Consequences of maritime transport of chemicals for people, environment, and infrastructure

Chapter 3. Modeling critical infrastructure accident consequences

Abstract

Chapter Outline

3.1 Modeling process of initiating events

3.2 Modeling process of environment threats

3.3 Modeling process of environment degradation

Chapter 4. Identification of critical infrastructure accident consequences

Abstract

Chapter Outline

4.1 Identification of process of initiating events—theoretical background

4.2 Identification of process of initiating events—application to Baltic Sea and world sea waters

4.3 Identification of process of environment threats—theoretical background

4.4 Identification of process of environment threats—application to Baltic Sea and world sea waters

4.5 Identification of process of environment degradation—theoretical background

4.6 Identification of process of environment degradation—application to Baltic Sea and world sea waters

Chapter 5. Prediction of critical infrastructure accident consequences

Abstract

Chapter Outline

5.1 Prediction of process of initiating events

5.2 Prediction of process of environment threats

5.3 Prediction of process of environment degradation

5.4 Superposition of initiating events, environment threats and environment degradation processes

Chapter 6. Modeling critical infrastructure accident losses

Abstract

Chapter Outline

6.1 Critical infrastructure accident losses

6.2 Integrated impact model on critical infrastructure accident consequences related to climate–weather change process

6.3 Critical infrastructure accident losses—application for Baltic Sea and world sea waters

Chapter 7. Optimization of critical infrastructure accident losses

Abstract

Chapter Outline

7.1 Critical infrastructure accident losses minimization without considering climate–weather change process impact—theoretical background

7.2 Critical infrastructure accident losses minimization with considering climate–weather change process impact—theoretical background

7.3 Critical infrastructure accident losses minimization—application for Baltic Sea and world sea waters

Chapter 8. Mitigation of critical infrastructure accident losses

Abstract

Chapter Outline

8.1 Inventory of accident losses at Baltic Sea waters

8.2 Inventory of accident losses at world sea waters

8.3 Strategy for mitigation of critical infrastructure accident losses

Chapter 9. Summary

Abstract

Bibliography

Appendices

Appendix 1 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of initiating events at Baltic Sea waters

Appendix 2 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of initiating events at world sea waters

Appendix 3 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment threats at Baltic Sea waters

Appendix 4 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment threats at world sea waters

Appendix 5 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment degradation at Baltic Sea waters

Appendix 6 Realizations of conditional lifetimes at states of process of environment degradation at world sea waters

Appendix 7 Table of chi-square distribution

Appendix 8 Procedures of modeling, identification, prediction, optimization, and mitigation of critical infrastructure accident consequences

Index

Copyright

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Preface

The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including the superposition of three models, the process of initiating events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation is presented in the book. The designed model is adopted to the maritime transport critical infrastructure understood as a ship network operating at the sea waters. The proposed model, methods, and tools are applied to this critical infrastructure accident with chemical release consequences modeling and identification, on the basis of the statistical data coming from reports of chemical accidents at the Baltic Sea and world sea waters, and prediction. The model also includes the cost analysis of losses associated with those consequences of chemical releases. Further, under the assumption of the stress of weather influence on the ship operation condition in the form of maritime storm and/or other hard sea conditions existence, critical infrastructure accident consequences are examined, and the results are compared with the previous ones. Finally, the critical infrastructure accident losses optimization is performed, and practical suggestions and procedures of these losses mitigation are given.

Chapter 1, Introduction to the analysis of critical infrastructure accident consequences, is an introduction to the subject associated with the critical infrastructure accident consequences. The concept of the general model of critical infrastructure consequences is introduced, and basic notions used in the general model as well as in three particular models of which the general one is built are presented.

In Chapter 2, Shipping as a critical infrastructure, shipping belonging to the transport sector is considered a critical infrastructure. The Baltic Sea and the worldwide sea-born shipping and its environmental footprint, especially connected with the sea accidents, are presented. Moreover, the detailed notions concerned with the initiating events generated by the accident of a shipping critical infrastructure, dangerous for the environment and implicating the environment threats, which then lead to the environment degradation, are introduced.

In Chapter 3, Modeling critical infrastructure accident consequences, the general semi-Markov model of critical infrastructure accident consequences is designed. The process of initiating events, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation are defined. To build models of these particular processes, the vectors of initial probabilities of these processes staying at their particular states, the matrices of probabilities of these processes transitions between their particular states, the matrices of conditional distribution functions, and the matrices of conditional density functions of these processes conditional sojourn times at their particular states are defined. The distributions, such as uniform, exponential, chimney, double trapezium, and quasitrapezium, are suggested and introduced to describe those processes conditional sojourn times at the particular states. Next, the mean values of particular processes conditional sojourn times at their states having these distributions are determined. In addition, the unconditional distribution functions of the sojourn times at the particular states of these processes, the mean values of their unconditional sojourn times, and limit values of transient probabilities at the particular states are determined. Further, the superposition of the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation is done to create the joint probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences. Finally, the unconditional transient probabilities and mean values of sojourn total times of the joint general process at its particular states, for the sufficiently large time, are determined.

The order of Chapters 3–8 corresponds to the subtitle of the book, that is, Modeling—Identification—Prediction—Optimization—Mitigation. Moreover, the order of these chapters can be seen as a scheme about how to apply, step by step, proposed methods and procedures of modeling, identification, prediction, and optimization. Chapters 4–7 are constructed similarly, according to the scheme: theoretical background and its application to the Baltic Sea and world sea waters.

In Chapter 4, Identification of critical infrastructure accident consequences, the theoretical background of identification of the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation is presented. There are methods and procedures for estimating unknown basic and distribution parameters as well as identifying distribution functions of those processes sojourn times at particular states. Next, these methods and procedures are applied to the identification of particular processes that are parts of the general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences at the Baltic Sea and world sea waters.

In Chapter 5, Prediction of critical infrastructure accident consequences, the general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences is practically applied to its prediction at the Baltic Sea and world sea waters. Namely, unconditional mean sojourn times, limit values of transient probabilities, and approximate mean values of sojourn total times at particular states of three particular processes of the general model for the fixed sufficiently large time are determined. Finally, applying the expression for total probability, the unconditional transient probabilities and mean values of sojourn total times of the joint process linking the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation for the fixed time are found.

In Chapter 6, Modeling critical infrastructure accident losses, the functions of the environment losses associated with the process of environment degradation without and with considering the climate–weather impact are defined. There are presented procedures and formulae estimating the unknown parameters of these functions of losses. Next, the expected values of the total environment loss without and with considering the climate–weather impact, generated by the accident of one of ships of the shipping critical infrastructure network operating at the Baltic Sea waters, for the fixed time interval, are determined and compared each other. In addition, the indicator of resilience to the loss associated with the critical infrastructure accident related to the climate–weather change is proposed.

In Chapter 7, Optimization of critical infrastructure accident losses, the methods based on the results of the general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences and the linear programming are proposed to the critical infrastructure accident losses optimization without and with considering the climate–weather impact. The method of the optimization of critical infrastructure accident losses determining optimal values of limit transient probabilities at particular states of the process of environment degradation that minimize the expected value of total environment losses concerned with the critical infrastructure accident for the fixed interval of time is proposed. These tools are practically tested to the minimizing losses associated with a chemical release generated by an accident of a ship critical infrastructure network operating at the Baltic Sea waters.

Chapter 8, Mitigation of critical infrastructure accident losses, contains an overview of the obtained values of losses associated with the shipping critical infrastructure accident without and with considering the climate–weather change impact, and results of their optimization are presented as well. Moreover, the general procedures and the new strategy assuring lower environment losses concerned with chemical releases caused by an accident of ship critical infrastructure network operating within the Baltic Sea or world sea waters are proposed.

The book is completed with a summary containing the evaluation of obtained results, the perspective of future research on the considered problems, and the suggestion of other practical application of the proposed general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences.

Moreover, the list of appropriate references is enclosed in bibliography. Appendices include the tables with realizations of conditional lifetimes at particular states of the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation used in the identification of the unknown parameters of these processes. The table of chi-square distribution necessary for the identification of these processes and summarized procedure of application of the general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences is also given.

Presented in the book the theoretical background of the methods and procedures of critical infrastructure accident consequences modeling, identification, prediction and optimization, and their practical applications to the forecasting and optimization of the environment losses caused by the chemical releases generated by an accident of a ship critical infrastructure network allows one to improve the quality in the field of maritime environment protection. The need of common considering the initiating events, environment threats, and environment degradation in the accident consequences analysis is obvious and very important in the maritime transport. Linking three processes, the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation is an original and novel approach to the maritime critical infrastructure accident consequences analysis not used in other scientific descriptions by now.

The book is offered to academics, researchers, consultants, practitioners, and other professionals to apply the proposed theoretical background in various areas of risk assessment, environment control and protection, and accident impacts analysis and management, having clear pattern in maritime sector to follow.

Acknowledgment

It is a genuine gratefulness and warmest regard to acknowledge and thank Prof. Krzysztof Kołowrocki for his inspiration, ideas, and suggestions as well as for his great support and encouragement.

Chapter 1

Introduction to the analysis of critical infrastructure accident consequences

Abstract

This chapter is an introduction to the subject associated with critical infrastructure accident consequences. The concept of the joint general model of critical infrastructure consequences, including three models of the process of initiating events generated either by the critical infrastructure accident or by its loss of safety critical level, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation, is introduced. Moreover, the basic notions used in the general model as well as in the three particular models, of which the general one is built, are listed and named.

Keywords

Critical infrastructure; shipping; Baltic Sea; initiating event; environment threats; environment degradation

Chapter Outline

Outline

1.1 Basic notions of process of initiating events 2

1.2 Basic notions of process of environment threats 3

1.3 Basic notions of process of environment degradation 4

The critical infrastructure is a complex system in its operating environment, and significant features are its inside and outside dependencies, which, in the case of its degradation, have significant destructive influence on the health, safety and security, economics, and social conditions of large human communities and territories (Council Directive 2008/114/EC; Moteff et al., 2003; Sergiejczyk and Dziula, 2013). The critical infrastructure accident is understood as an event that changes the critical infrastructure safety state into another safety state that is worse than the critical safety state, which is dangerous for the critical infrastructure itself, its operating environment and has disastrous influence on human health and activity (Dziula et al., 2014; Kołowrocki, 2013a,b; Kołowrocki and Soszyńska-Budny, 2012a,b; Rinaldi et al., 2001) as well. Each critical infrastructure accident can generate the initiating events, causing dangerous situations in the critical infrastructure operating surroundings. The process of these initiating events can result in this type of environment threats and lead to the dangerous environment degradations (Fig. 1.1).

Figure 1.1 Interrelations of the critical infrastructure accident consequences general model.

Thus the probabilistic joint general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences includes the models of the process of initiating events generated either by the critical infrastructure accident or by its loss of safety critical level, the process of environment threats, and the process of environment degradation (Bogalecka, 2010; Bogalecka and Kołowrocki, 2006, 2015a,b, 2016, 2017a).

By using the statistical data from free-accessible reports of chemical accidents at sea (CEDRE, 2018; GISIS, 2018), the proposed model is applied to modeling, identifying, and predicting the critical infrastructure accident consequences generated by the critical infrastructure defined as a ship operating within the Baltic Sea area (Fig. 1.2) and to the cost analysis of losses associated with these consequences as well. Furthermore, under the assumption of the stress of climate–weather influence on the operation conditions in the form of maritime storm and other hard sea conditions existence, the mentioned critical infrastructure accident consequences and losses associated with them are examined, and the results are compared with the previous results, not considering the weather impact. Finally, the critical infrastructure accident losses optimization and mitigation are performed, and practical suggestions and procedures for reducing the critical infrastructure accident losses are proposed.

Figure 1.2 Maritime ferry route between Gdynia Port and Karlskrona Port.

In the experiment sea area, statistical data from Fig. 1.2 are placed in the neighborhood of the maritime ferry route (Bogalecka and Kołowrocki, 2018a). The considered maritime ferry is a passenger/ro-ro cargo ship operating in the south of the Baltic Sea, between Gdynia and Karlskrona ports on a regular everyday line. The approximate maritime ferry sea water route is 135 nautical miles long. Moreover, the extension of general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences application using the wider data collected at the world sea waters and ports is given. The obtained results of the considered cases were compared with each other.

The modeling, identification, prediction, and optimization methods, algorithms, and procedures are adapted from Kołowrocki and Soszyńska-Budny (2011), where they were used related to operation processes of industrial systems, such as the maritime ferry technical system and the port oil piping transportation system, and significantly developed to an accident consequences analysis.

To construct the general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences and to apply it practically, the basic notions concerned with these three particular processes by which the model is composed of are listed and named in Sections 1.1–1.3.

1.1 Basic notions of process of initiating events

—the semi-Markov process of initiating events,

—the event initiating the dangerous situation for the critical infrastructure operating environment after either the critical infrastructure accident or its loss of safety critical level,

—the state of the process of