Autonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility

Autonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility presents novel methods for examining the long-term effects on individuals, society, and on the environment for a wide range of forthcoming transport scenarios, such as self-driving vehicles, workplace mobility plans, demand responsive transport analysis, mobility as a service, multi-source transport data provision, and door-to-door mobility. With the development and realization of new mobility options comes change in long-term travel behavior and transport policy. This book addresses these impacts, considering such key areas as the attitude of users towards new services, the consequences of introducing new mobility forms, the impacts of changing work related trips, and more.

By examining and contextualizing innovative transport solutions in this rapidly evolving field, the book provides insights into the current implementation of these potentially sustainable solutions. It will serve as a resource of general guidelines and best practices for researchers, professionals and policymakers.

• Covers hot topics, including travel behavior change, autonomous vehicle impacts, intelligent solutions, mobility planning, mobility as a service, sustainable solutions, and more
• Examines up-to-date models and applications using novel technologies
• Contains contributions from leading scholars around the globe
• Includes case studies with the latest research results

• Language: English
• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Release date: Jun 14, 2019
• ISBN: 9780128176979

Book preview

Autonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility

First Edition

Pierluigi Coppola

Domokos Esztergár-Kiss

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

Contributors

Introduction

1: Autonomous vehicles and future mobility solutions

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Background

3 Connected and automated vehicles deployment

4 Future mobility scenarios

5 Conclusions and perspectives

2: Where will self-driving vehicles take us? Scenarios for the development of automated vehicles with Sweden as a case study

Abstract

Acknowledgments

1 Introduction

2 Related work

3 Method

4 Results

5 Conclusions and future work

6 Notes

3: Traffic flow with autonomous vehicles in real-life traffic situations

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Method

3 Results

4 Discussion

5 Conclusion

4: Demand-oriented mobility solutions for rural areas using autonomous vehicles

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Background

3 Model scope and structure

4 Data utilized

5 Model results

6 End-user cost estimation

7 Final remarks

5: Will self-driving cars impact the long-term investment strategy for the Dutch national trunk road system?

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Implementing self-driving cars in the national model

3 Definition of the self-driving car scenarios

4 Results

5 Conclusions

6 Notes

6: What will autonomous cars do to the insurance companies?

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Private cars

3 Autonomous cars

4 Shared cars

5 Mobility as a service (MaaS)

6 Looking back and forward

7 Scenario: Mobility spot market for insurance in case of an accident in an MaaS environment

8 Conclusions

9 Notes

10 Iconography

7: Demand analysis and willingness to use new mobility concepts

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Demand-responsive transport

3 Study design and approach

4 Study results

5 Conclusion and outlook

8: The benefits of accessing transport data to support intelligent mobility

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Assessing the benefits of transport data

3 Direct benefits

4 Indirect benefits

5 oneTRANSPORT (a transport data platform case study)

6 Conclusion

9: Stakeholder engagement in mobility planning

Abstract

Acknowledgement

1 Introduction

2 MOVECIT project for sustainable mobility planning

3 Overview of the current mobility policies in the regions

4 Mobility incentives and innovative mobility concepts

5 Situation of stakeholder involvement

6 Problems and opportunities of mobility planning

7 Conclusion

10: The impact of various forms of flexible working on mobility and congestion estimated empirically

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Method

3 Developments in flexible working

4 Determinants of flexible working

5 Effects of flexible working on car and public transport use

6 Impacts of flexible working on road congestion

7 Discussion

11: Public sector facilitation of cargo bike operations to improve city logistics

Abstract

1 Introduction

2 Related work

3 Methodology

4 Results

5 Conclusions and future work

Glossary

Index

Copyright

Elsevier

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Notices

Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

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A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-0-12-817696-2

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Contributors

Jardar Andersen     Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway

Dick Bakker     4cast, Leiden, Netherlands

Iva Bojic     Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, Singapore

Roman Braendli     Allianz SE Asia-Pacific Branch, Singapore

Florian Brinkmann     German Aerospace Center (DLR e.V.), Institute of Transportation Systems, Braunschweig, Germany

Pierluigi Coppola     University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy

Domokos Esztergár-Kiss     Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary

Karin Fossheim     Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway

Tim Gammons     Ove Arup & Partners Ltd., London, United Kingdom

Rinus Haaijer     MuConsult, Amersfoort, Netherlands

Torbjørn Haugen     NTNU—The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Ida Kristoffersson     VTI Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Linköping, Sweden

Eivind Myklebust Lindseth     NTNU—The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Lars-Göran Mattsson     Department of Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

Khalid Nur     Ove Arup & Partners Ltd., London, United Kingdom

Tale 'rving     Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway

Anna Pernestål     Integrated Transport Research Lab, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

Marits Pieters     Significance, The Hague, Netherlands

Carlo Ratti     Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States

Eirin Olaussen Ryeng     NTNU—The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Fulvio Silvestri     University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy

Remko Smit     Rijkswaterstaat water, traffic and Environment, Rijswijk, Netherlands

Maaike Snelder

TNO, The Hague

Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

Tamás Tettamanti     Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary

Han van der Loop     KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, The Hague, Netherlands

Henk van Mourik     Ministry of Transport and the Environment, The Hague, Netherlands

Erik Verroen     Rijkswaterstaat water, traffic and Environment, Rijswijk, Netherlands

Kathrin Viergutz     German Aerospace Center (DLR e.V.), Institute of Transportation Systems, Braunschweig, Germany

Moritz von Mörner     Technische Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany

Jasper Willigers     Significance, The Hague, Netherlands

Introduction

Pierluigi Coppolaa; Domokos Esztergár-Kissa

This book includes a selection of scientific articles presented during the European Transport Conference (ETC) organized in 2017, by the Association for European Transport (AET) in Barcelona, Spain. ETC is an annual event where transport researchers and practitioners come together at a venue in Europe to discuss policy issues, research findings, and best practice across a broad spectrum of transport topics. Uniquely in Europe the conference provides a forum for those engaged in research, policy, and business in transport, bridging the gap that often arises between theory and practice. In this respect the book is not only oriented to researchers, but also to practitioners and public administrations.

The aim of the book is to present novel theories, working models, useful test cases, and possible paths for the future. Part I focuses on scenarios of autonomous driving related not only to development options and long-term planning, but also to the transition period, potential impacts, and liability issues. Part II deals with innovative mobility solutions, presenting new concepts and applications.

Chapter 1 presents the state of the art in the development of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) outlining the conditions for sustainable mobility solutions and new business models for transport services. The development of CAVs is fast, and the consequences for travelers, society, and the environment are still open questions. It is expected that they will allow better management of traffic flows on the network, increase infrastructure capacity, and promote the use of sustainable and seamless multimodal transport solutions. However, some researchers fear the risk of an overall increase in road congestion, higher energy consumption, polluting emissions, visual intrusion, and land-use expenditure. In Chapter 2 four plausible scenarios are discussed in terms of new policy measures, new legislation, infrastructure investments, and research and development gaps, giving a background for the ongoing governmental investigation about future regulations toward a sustainable use of CAVs.

Uncertainty about the future introduction of CAVs depends on supply-side, demand-side, and governance factors. In a few years the commercial release could take place, but only in those countries that have in the meantime legislated to allow circulation of CAVs in mixed or reserved lanes. In fact, a transition period will happen in the near future, where self-driving vehicles will share roads with traditional cars. Chapter 3 presents a study to assess how and to what extent road capacity will be affected by CAVs, comparing saturation flow rates with different mixes of self-driving and traditional cars.

If correctly planned and integrated in Public Transport (PT) networks self-driving vehicles could lead to great benefits in terms of environmental, social, and economic sustainability. In particular they could be used as micro-transit, in order to extend PT lines in rural areas where conventional public transport is facing major difficulties due to low demand levels and dispersed urbanization. Chapter 4 investigates such opportunities for rural areas through a household mobility survey and modeling PT demand as served by new transport modes utilizing shared autonomous vehicles. Chapter 5 presents a comprehensive strategic study in the Netherlands, addressing challenges for the national infrastructure fund in a long-term scenario including deployment of CAVs.

Considering a more general perspective, advances in transportation solutions and data analysis will cause disruption to people’s lifestyles and will most definitely contribute to an increase in information equality. In the foreseeable future, historic risk-calculation models will lose their relevance and insurance companies will lose the competitive advantage of risk assessment. In order to understand the impact of emerging technologies on the insurance industry, Chapter 6 analyzes the resulting threat to incumbent players and concludes that the current business paradigm will have to change, should insurance companies wish to be competing along other players.

Passengers appreciate multimodality; they prefer to use a wide range of complementary means of transport, but at the same time there is a growing demand for flexibility. Public transportation is currently experiencing a shift from the supply-oriented operation defined by schedules, route plans, and fixed stops to a flexible transport system, especially in the urban context. However, such a flexible transport system is usually unfamiliar to most passengers. Chapter 7 describes the results of a study on acceptance of Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT), to get insights on usability of flexible mobility concepts and on travelers’ willingness to share a ride. The aim is to determine the framework conditions under which DRT could be used.

In order to serve these changing needs of passengers, intelligent mobility services require access to multi-sourced transport data. Therefore Chapter 8 focuses on the benefits of opening and sharing transport data through e-cloud platforms. Such benefits include direct benefits illustrated through the platforms’ modeled revenue streams, and indirect (economic, environmental, and social) benefits. Some of the identified benefits are demonstrated through an initiative that aims to deliver intelligent mobility within and beyond large cities through an economical approach accessing transport data.

Having access to information about travel behavior and large datasets is beneficial, however, if considering long-term mobility solutions, especially for workplaces, it is still necessary to collect the requirements of stakeholders who are responsible for planning and realization of these options. In Chapter 9 a new approach is presented, where workplace mobility plans are established together with municipalities, so that they can implement recommendations for their institutions to promote the use of car-sharing, bike-sharing, e-mobility, and improved carpooling measures among their employees.

One of the possible outcomes of a mobility plan is to introduce flexible working hours. This measure has an effect on mobility patterns and road congestion and leads to more time and location independency for working. Chapter 10 demonstrates how the development of flexible working has reduced the growth of car use and congestion, especially during peak hours, and has improved the use of PT services.

Finally, it is envisaged that there will be an intense use of automated systems also in freight transport, both for first and last mile delivery in urban areas through autonomous light commercial vehicles, for example, cargo bikes. Different geography, climate, regulations, and policy measures could affect the uptake of cargo bikes, hence increased knowledge on how design cargo bike systems is needed. Chapter 11 provides a knowledge platform for public sector facilitation of cargo bike operations, presenting the case of Oslo to get insights, experiences, and learning points with particular emphasis on how the public sector may facilitate cargo bike operations, related to both the micro depot and the bike operations themselves.

As editors, we are aware that technological development and research in the field of CAVs are rapidly evolving and novel solutions arise every day. However, while giving a snapshot of current issues and challenges related to self- driving vehicles from such a variety of perspectives, we believe the book may contribute to future research development and to the debate for the sustainable implementation of such innovative technologies. Special thanks go to AET, to all reviewers, to the publisher, and to those involved in the technical processes.

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a Guest Editors.

1

Autonomous vehicles and future mobility solutions

Pierluigi Coppola; Fulvio Silvestri    University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy

Abstract

Today’s technological innovations are creating the base for mobility solutions, which, accompanied to cultural and socio-economic changes taking place all over the world, open the door to new mobility scenarios. The challenge of innovation in the transport sector, including road, sea, rail, and air, is represented by automation of vehicles, particularly the automotive, from the viewpoint of demonstration and validation. This chapter presents the state of the art of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) development outlining the conditions for sustainable mobility solutions and new business models for transport services.

Keywords

Societal trends; Electric vehicles; Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs); SAE automation levels; Shared mobility; Mobility as a Service (MaaS); Autonomous Mobility on Demand (AMoD); Uncertainty

1 Introduction

The latest technological innovations are rapidly and radically transforming the transport sector, creating the base for mobility solutions, which, accompanied to the cultural and socio-economic changes taking place all over the world, open the door to new future scenarios that are still difficult to predict but that are gradually coming to the fore.

Today the challenge of innovation in the transport sector is represented by automation of vehicles. Research and technological development affect all modes of transport (road, sea, rail, and air) and are characterized differently depending on the area of application (urban or suburban, passenger or freight). The most advanced transport industry, from the viewpoint of demonstration and validation, is that of road vehicles (STRIA, 2017). The leading car manufacturers as well as newcomers in the automotive industry (i.e., the major players in the Information Technology (IT) market) expect to commercialize fully Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) by 2030 (TSC, 2017). These will find application in passenger transport, where private mobility and Public Transport (PT) services, such as buses, taxis, and other on-demand systems, will be able to merge into innovative transport alternatives offered by shared mobility (ARUP, 2017). Furthermore it is envisaged that there will be an intense use of automated systems also in freight transport, both for first and last mile delivery in urban areas through autonomous light commercial vehicles (commonly called road drones), and for freight distribution on a national scale with the use of heavy vehicles (adopting solutions of truck platooning and cooperative adaptive cruise control).

This chapter reviews the state of the art of CAVs development outlining the expected impacts of the discussed trends on transport demand and supply, aiming at identifying sustainable solutions and new business models for transport services.

2 Background

In recent years, the transport sector has been severely tested, on the one hand, by driving forces of social, demographic, and cultural changes such as urbanization, population aging, and sharing economy and, on the other hand, by disruptive technological innovations that are encouraging digitalization even in well-established transport industries.

2.1 Socio-economic trends

At present 55% of the World population lives in urban areas; in 1950 the share was 30% and today’s predictions estimate an increase up to 68% by 2050 (UN, 2018). Urbanization is due to a considerable shift of population from rural to urban areas as well as to an overall demographic increase (which is higher in cities). Today the most urbanized regions are North America, Latin America, and Europe, with shares between 74% and 82% of urban residents (UN, 2018). The dramatic increase in the urban population will bring new and growing mobility demand on transport systems that are already at high levels of saturation; it is clear that urbanization, if not adequately addressed, could worsen the issue of traffic congestion.

The phenomenon of demographic aging is pervading throughout the world. In 2050 the global population aged 60 years or older will be twice as much as today’s, both in absolute and percentage terms compared to the overall population (UN, 2017a). The growth of the elderly population will take place in those countries where a demographic decline is expected, but not only there. Currently in Europe the segment of the population aged 60 years and older represents 25% of the total population; it will reach 35% in 2050. Next is North America, in which the older population will increase from 22% to 28% by 2050. Asia and Latin America will double the present ratio, reaching 24% and 25%, respectively. The shift to an aging society, resulting from the increase in life expectancy at birth and the simultaneous decline in fertility (UN, 2017b), will place significant challenges on mobility (to fit elderly transport needs), road traffic safety (to contrast their higher vulnerability as road users), and societal responsibilities (to overcome their possible limitations and disability in order to prevent social exclusion) (Chan, 2017).

Co-working, house sharing, and social shopping are some of the main examples of sharing economy models that have permeated many of those markets that traditionally were based exclusively on individual ownership. A wide transition to collaborative consumption is occurring; people (particularly those of the new generations) are less attracted by property assets, which were often relied on to legitimize social status, and are rather oriented to the use of services. The transport sector is no exception; owning a vehicle does not seem to be more strictly necessary in urban areas where car-sharing services are becoming more and more popular. On the one hand, users are more interested in gaining access to transport services, particularly where they prove to be cheaper and better performing. On the other hand, the automotive sector is experiencing a real internal reorganization; car manufacturers as well as the main leasing and rental companies are rapidly and increasingly proposing themselves as providers of mobility services (ARUP, 2017). This is the case of Car2Go by Daimler, DriveNow by BMW, Zipcar by Avis Budget Group, and Hertz-on-Demand by Hertz as well as other companies not directly related to automotive, such as Flinkster by the German railways and logistics company Deutsche Bahn and Enjoy by the Italian energy company