Conventional Energy in North America: Current and Future Sources for Electricity Generation

By Jorge Morales Pedraza

Conventional Energy in North America: Current and Future Sources for Electricity Generation provides in-depth information on the current state of conventional energy sources used for electricity generation in the United States and Canada. As energy is a major force of civilization, determining, to a high degree, the level of economic and social development, this book provides relevant information and a deep analysis regarding the main problems associated with the use of fossil fuels for the generation of electricity in both countries. Finally, the book offers guidance for countries seeking to expand their use of conventional energy sources for electricity generation.

Users in government, energy experts, economists, politicians, academics, scientific institutions and universities, international organizations and the private and public power industry will find this book to be a great reference on what type of conventional energy sources should be used for electricity generation with the aim of reducing the emission of CO2 and other contaminated gases to the atmosphere.

• Includes comprehensive information on the different types of conventional energy sources available in the USA and Canada, including their impact on climate, level of energy reserves, and levels of production and consumption
• Covers the pros and cons of each type of conventional energy source for electricity generation
• Features an analysis of what types of conventional energy sources should be used for future electricity generation in the USA and Canada, with the aim of reducing the emission of CO2 and other contaminated gas to the atmosphere

• Language: English
• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Release date: Jun 5, 2019
• ISBN: 9780128148907

Jorge Morales Pedraza

Jorge Morales has served as an invited professor of mathematics at the University of Havana and the Diplomatic Academy of Cuba. He has also served as a diplomat, working at the Atomic Energy Commission of Cuba within the Executive Committee of the Council of Ministers. Mr. Morales has also held several positions with the International Atomic Energy Agency, including Counsellor and Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Cuba, Deputy Head of the Cuban delegation to the IAEA General Conference, Deputy Governor to the IAEA Board of Governors, Chairman of the G-77 for the IAEA, Representative of IAEA member states in the Committee on staff issues, and Chairman of the working group on nuclear matters of the Movement of Non-aligned Countries in the IAEA. As a professional working for the IAEA, Mr. Morales worked to give advice to countries on the introduction or expansion of nuclear energy for electricity generation. In order to make recommendations, he studied both the conventional and non-convention energy sources available in the country. He is the author of 11 books, including books on conventional energy sources in Latin America and Europe. He has also written 16 book chapters and more than 70 scientific articles.

Book preview

Conventional Energy in North America

Current and Future Sources for Electricity Generation

Jorge Morales Pedraza

Senior Consultant, Morales Project Consulting, Vienna, AUT

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction

Chapter 1. General Overview of the Energy Sector in the North America Region

Introduction

The World Crude Oil Sector

The World Natural Gas Sector

The World Coal Sector

The Crude Oil Industry in the North America Region

The Natural Gas Industry in the North America Region

The Unconventional Energy Revolution in the North America Region

The Coal Industry in the North America Region

Environmental and Social Impact for the Use of Conventional Energy Sources in the North America Region

Evolution of Energy Conventional Prices in the North America Region

Electricity Generation and Consumption in the North America Region

The Contribution of the Different Conventional Energy Sources to Electricity Generation in the North America Region

Main Disadvantages of the Use of Different Conventional Energy Sources for Electricity Generation in the North America Region

Chapter 2. Current Status and Perspective in the Use of Crude Oil for Electricity Generation in the North America Region

General Overview

The Crude Oil Sector in the United States

The Crude Oil Sector in Canada

Electricity Generation Using Oil as Fuel in Canada

Chapter 3. Current Status and Perspective in the Use of Natural Gas for Electricity Generation in the North America Region

General Overview

The Natural Gas Sector in the United States

The Natural Gas Sector in Canada

Chapter 4. Current Status and Perspective in the Use of Coal for Electricity Generation in the North America Region

General Overview

The Coal Sector in the United States

The Coal Sector in Canada

Chapter 5. Conclusion

References

Index

Copyright

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Notices

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Dedication

To my grandchildren Adrián and Mikail.

Preface

Writing a book on any subject is always an enormous task for the author, but when the theme is that of energy, then the challenge is even more significant.

The present book is the fifth in the series about the use of conventional, renewable, and nuclear energies for electricity generation and heating in different regions that have been prepared by me and published by several publishing houses in recent years. The books already published describe the current situation and perspectives in the use of conventional (oil, natural gas, and coal), renewable, and nuclear energies for electricity generation and heating in the Latin American and the European regions.

Following the same structure of the books already published, the present book talks about the use of conventional energies in the North American region as a whole, as well as in the US and Canada. In its different chapters, the current situation and perspectives in the use of these types of energy sources for electricity generation and heating in the entire North American region and in particular in the US and Canada are briefly described.

The present book has five chapters, 144 figures, and 34 tables. The first chapter describes the current situation and perspectives in the use of conventional energies for electricity generation and heating at the global level and at the level of the North American region considered as a whole. Based on the information included in this chapter, the electricity generation and heating in the North American region during the period 2012–17 using oil, natural gas, and coal as fuel decreased by 1,6%, falling from 2.903 billion kWh in 2012 to 2.859,2 billion kWh in 2017.

Because the US and Canada are reducing the use of coal, oil, and other liquids for electricity production, it is probable that the role of these fossil fuels as part of the energy mix of these two countries will continue to fall during the coming years. On the contrary, the use of natural gas for electricity generation and heating is expected to increase in the energy mix of these two countries during the coming years.

The second chapter describes the current situation and perspectives in the use of oil for power generation in the North America region as a whole, as well as the role that this type of conventional energy plays and will continue to play in electricity generation and heating in the US and Canada. According to the information included in this chapter, it is projected that up to 2040 the share of oil and other liquids in the world electricity generation will decrease by 45,5%, falling from 1,1   TWh in 2012 to 0,6   TWh in 2040. The percentage of participation of oil and other liquid fuels in the world's electricity generation and heating is projected to decrease from 5% in 2012 to less than 1,6% in 2040; that is a reduction of 3,4%. It is expected that this trend will continue after 2040. In the specific case of the North America region, the participation of oil and other liquids in the energy mix of the US and Canada is today the lowest considering the three types of fossil fuels used for electricity generation and heating, and it is foreseen that this situation will not change during the coming years.

In the specific case of the US, the tendency is to reduce the use of petroleum coke for electricity generation and heating during the coming years, as well as its role in the energy mix of the country. Within the period 2010–17, the peak in the consumption of petroleum coke for electricity generation and heating in the US was registered in 2011 and since that year the use of petroleum coke has been falling every year. The leading consumer of this type of energy source in the US is the electric power sector itself. In 2017, this sector consumed 81,5% of the total electricity generated in the country. The commercial sector is the area with the lowest consumption of petroleum coke for electricity generation and heating in the US during the whole period under consideration. In 2017, this sector consumed only 0,09% of the total.

It is important to highlight that due to the negative impact on the environment and the population as a result of the use of oil for electricity generation and heating, during the period 2010–16 the number of oil-fired power plants used in the US for this purpose dropped significantly (8%), falling down from 1.169 power plants in 2010 to 1.076 in 2016. It is forecast that more oil-fired power plants will be closed in the US during the coming years.

In the case of Canada, the electricity generation using oil as fuel decreased by 38% during the period 2010–17, falling from 6,9   TWh in 2010 to 4,3   TWh in 2017. It is predictable that the electricity generation in the country will continue following this trend during the coming years but at a slow rate. Different energy measures adopted by the Canadian government to reduce the use of oil for electricity generation and heating and the negative impact that the use of this type of energy source has on the environment and the population will be the leading causes for this situation.

Chapter 3 describes the current situation and perspectives in the use of natural gas for global electricity generation and heating, highlighting not only the case in the North American region as a whole but also in the US and Canada. Natural gas is the second most commonly used fossil fuel in the world for power generation and the only one whose share of primary energy consumption is projected to grow during the coming years in many countries, including the US and Canada. Without a doubt, the natural gas market in the North America region is a mature market, with a financial structure well integrated and with a high national production in Canada and the US. It is expected that this trend will continue during the coming years.

In the US, the net electricity generation using natural gas and other gases as fuel in 2017 in all sectors of its economy reached the amount of 1.287.053 thousand MWh. Per sectors, the electricity generation using natural gas and other gases as fuel in the US in 2017 included:

• Electricity utilities: the electricity generation from natural gas was 617.725 thousand MWh and from other gases was 164MWh.

• Independent power producers: the electricity generation from natural gas was 558.439 thousand MWh and from other gases was 4.013 thousand MWh.

• Commercial sector: the electricity generation from natural gas was 7.516 thousand MWh.

• Industrial sector: the electricity generation from natural gas was 89.188 thousand MWh and from other gases was 9.982 thousand MWh.

The number of gas-fired power plants used for electricity generation and heating in the US increased by 8,3% during the period 2006–16, rising from 1.705 power plants in 2006 to 1.846 power plants in 2016. As a result of the measures adopted by the US administration in the energy sector, it is anticipated that the number of natural gas-fired power plants in the US will continue to grow during the coming years.

In the case of Canada, the electricity generation using natural gas as fuel during the period 2010–17 increased by 53,6%, rising from 47,8   TWh in 2010 to 73,4   TWh in 2017. The peak in the electricity generation and heating using natural gas as fuel during the period considered was reached in 2017. In 2017, the total electricity generated in Canada using all available energy sources reached the total of 693,4   TWh. In that year, the power produced using natural gas as fuel represented 10,6% of the total. It is expected that the use of natural gas for electricity generation and heating in the country will continue to grow during the coming years, as a result of the closure of several old and inefficient coal-fired power plants; it is foreseen that the role of natural gas in the energy mix of the country will be higher than today. It is also forecast that in 2035 the total electricity generated by gas-fired power plants in Canada will reach 114.473   GWh; this represents an increase of 80,8% with respect to 2016.

Chapter 4 describes the current situation and perspectives in the use of coal for electricity generation and heating not only at the level of the North American region but also in the US and Canada. Most of the coal from the North American region was consumed in the US in 2017, which accounted for 94,7% of the region's total coal use in 2017 (350,7 million tons equivalent). It is expected that, as a result of the measures adopted by the US administration, the use of coal for electricity generation and heating will remain relatively flat until 2040 rising by only 2 quadrillions Btu during the whole period. However, if the proposed CPP were implemented, then the US coal consumption is expected to decline by almost 3 quadrillions Btu by 2040.

Moreover, strong growth in shale gas production, decreasing electricity demand as a result of the implementation of different energy efficiency measures, the adoption of environmental regulations to reduce the negative impact of the use of some fossil fuel for electricity generation and heating, and the increased use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation and heating are expected to reduce the share of coal-fired power generation within the total US electricity production (including electricity generated at plants in the industrial and commercial sectors) from 37% in 2012 to 26% in 2040; this means a decrease of 9% for the whole period. Finally, it is important to stress that the number of coal-fired power plants used for electricity generation and heating in the US decreased by 56,8% during the period 2010–17, falling from 580 coal-fired power plants in 2010 to 251 coal-fired power plants in 2017. It is expected that this trend will continue at least during the coming years but at a slower pace. Old and inefficient coal-fired power plants will be closed.

In the case of Canada, coal is mainly used for electricity generation and heating which accounts for about 85,3% of the total coal consumption; 7,2% goes to coke manufacturing and various industries; and 7,6% to other non-energy uses. Coal-fired generation contributes about 10% of Canada's total electricity generation. Without a doubt, coal is expected to play a relatively minor role in Canada's energy supply system in the future, due to the adoption of strong measures to protect the environment and the population. For this reason, the position of coal within the energy supply system in Canada is expected to decline further, due to the adoption of federal and provincial government measures to reduce emissions of several contaminating gases produced as a result of burning coal for electricity generation and heating.

Canada's total coal consumption is expected to decline by 51% (0,4 quadrillions Btu) during the period 2012–40, and the share of coal in the total primary energy supply is likely to decrease from 5% in 2012 to 2% in 2040; this means a reduction of 3% for the whole period. It is important to highlight that in 2017, coal was the third energy source for power generation in Canada with 10,6% of the total electricity produced in the country in that year (693,4   TWh, including the electricity generated by the industry), after hydro with 60,7% and nuclear power with 16,8%. However, the participation of coal in the energy mix of the country will continue to drop during the coming years as a result of the closure of old and inefficient coal-fired power plants.

Chapter 5 summarizes the essential aspects that describe the current situation and perspectives in the use of oil, natural gas, and coal for electricity generation and heating throughout the North American region as a whole, and especially in the US and Canada.

Acknowledgments

During the preparation of the present book Mr. Alejandro Seijas Lopez, Master of Engineering in Energy and Mechanical Engineering Degree, gave me an essential assistance in the compilation of relevant information regarding the current and future role of fossil fuels in the electricity generation in the North America region, and in the preparation of two chapters of the book.

Without any doubt, the present book is a reality thanks to the valuable support of my lovely wife, Aurora Tamara Meoqui Puig, who had assumed other family responsibilities to give me the necessary time and the adequate environment to write the present book.

Introduction

Electricity consumption is an essential component of the modern life. It not only provides clean and safe light throughout the day, but also in many countries refreshes homes on hot summer days, and in others warms them in winter. In all countries, it allows the use of electrical and electronic equipment in which the use of electricity is essential to ensure their proper functioning. Although hundreds of millions of Americans and Canadians connect to the power grid every day, most of them do not think about how they get the electricity consumed, and how much it costs to produce it. Keeping the North America region energized is actually an amazing feat, a daily miracle.

Chapter 1

General Overview of the Energy Sector in the North America Region

Abstract

Fossil fuels—oil, natural gas, and coal—are concentrated organic compounds found in the Earth's crust, formed from the remains of plants and animals that lived millions of years ago in the form of concentrated biomass. Without energy, people will be deprived of heating, cooling, and light in their homes and workplaces. They would not have access to television and the internet, among other services relevant to their lives and professional activities. With the development of modern societies, the use of these devices and services is expected to grow, as well as the dependence on them. This situation is not only the characteristic of developed countries, but also of developing countries as well. The dependence of these countries on the use of electricity grows every year, and it is expected that this trend will continue without change during the coming decades.

The growth in the world economy means that more energy will be required, particularly power in the form of electricity to guarantee the functioning of the different industries, hospitals, cinemas, theaters, school and universities, and service centers, among others. Even though the consumption of non-fossil fuels is expected to grow faster than the use of fossil fuels, this last type of energy source is still expected to account for 78% of energy consumption in 2040. Within all available fossil fuels, natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the projection period until 2040. Global natural gas consumption is projected to increase by 1,9% per year until 2040. Abundant natural gas resources and robust production, including rising supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane, are expected to contribute to the strong competitive position of natural gas in comparison to oil and coal within the energy mix of several countries. Although liquid fuels—mostly petroleum-based—are expected to remain the largest source of world energy consumption, their share of world marketed energy consumption is projected to drop by 3% during the period 2012–40 falling from 33% in 2012 to 30% in 2040.

Keywords

Canada; Coal; Coal consumption; Coal production; Coal trade; Conventional energy sources; Electricity generation; Energy intensity; Energy trade; Environmental impact; Liquid fuels; Natural gas; Natural gas consumption; Natural gas production; Natural gas trade; North America; Oil; Oil consumption; Oil production; Oil trade; Petroleum; Shale gas; Tight gas; Tight oil; USA

Introduction

The World Crude Oil Sector

The World Natural Gas Sector

The World Coal Sector

The Crude Oil Industry in the North America Region

Crude Oil Reserves in the North America Region

Crude Oil Production in the North America Region

Crude Oil Consumption in the North America Region

Crude Oil Trade in the North America Region

The Natural Gas Industry in the North America Region

Natural Gas Reserves in the North America Region

Natural Gas Production in the North America Region

Natural Gas Consumption in the North America Region

Exports of Natural Gas and Liquid Natural Gas in the North America Region

Imports of Natural Gas and Liquid Natural Gas in the North America Region

The Unconventional Energy Revolution in the North America Region

The Coal Industry in the North America Region

Coal Reserves in the North America Region

Coal Production in the North America Region

Coal Consumption in the North America Region

Coal Exports from the North America Region

Coal Imports by the North America Region

Environmental and Social Impact for the Use of Conventional Energy Sources in the North America Region

Evolution of Energy Conventional Prices in the North America Region

Electricity Generation and Consumption in the North America Region

Electricity Trade Within the North America Region

Electricity Generation in the Commercial Sector

Electricity Generation in the Residential Sector

The Contribution of the Different Conventional Energy Sources to Electricity Generation in the North America Region

Main Disadvantages of the Use of Different Conventional Energy Sources for Electricity Generation in the North America Region

Introduction

Electricity generation and consumption are essential components of modern life. They not only provide clean and safe light throughout the day, but also in many countries, especially those located in the hot areas on the planet, refresh homes on summer days, and, in countries located in the coldest regions, warm them in the winter. In all states, independent of their locations and economic development, they allow the use of electrical and electronic equipment in which the use of electricity is essential to ensure their proper functioning. Without electricity, it is impossible to use mobile phones, tablets, and computer equipment. Although hundreds of millions of Americans and Canadians connect to the power grid every day, most of them do not think or have an idea about how they get the electricity consumed, and how much it costs to produce it. When people stop to analyze this issue, it is not difficult to conclude that keeping the North America region energized is a fantastic achievement, a daily miracle (History of Electricity, 2014).

It is a reality that without energy, people will be deprived of heating, cooling, and light in their homes and workplaces. They would not have access to television and the internet, among other services relevant to their lives and professional activities. With the development of modern societies, the use of these devices and services is expected to grow, as well as the dependence on them. This situation is not only the characteristic of developed countries, but also of the developing countries as well, particularly for the most advanced developing countries such as China, South Africa, India, South Korea, Brazil, and Russia, to mention some examples. The dependence of these countries on the use of electricity grows every year, and it is expected that this trend will continue without change during the coming decades.

The growth in the world economy means that more energy will be required, ¹ particularly power in the form of electricity to guarantee the functioning of the different industries, hospitals, cinemas, theaters, universities, and service centers, to mention a few examples. Even though the consumption of nonfossil fuels is expected to grow faster than the use of fossil fuels, this last type of energy source is still expected to account for 78% of energy consumption in 2040, according to the International Energy Outlook 2016 with Projection to 2040 report.

Fossil fuels ² —coal, petroleum (oil), and natural gas—are concentrated organic compounds found in the Earth's crust, and are formed from the remains of plants and animals that lived millions of years ago in the form of concentrated biomass. For many purposes, oil and natural gas resources are classified into four categories. According to the Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources (2015) paper, the categories are:

• remaining oil and gas-in-place: original oil and gas in-place minus cumulative production at a specific date;

• technically recoverable resources: includes all the oil and gas that can be produced using the current technology, industry practice, and geologic knowledge;

• economically recoverable resources: the portion of technically recoverable resources that can be commercially produced; and

• proved reserves: volumes of oil and gas that geologic and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under current economic and operating conditions (Fig. 1.1).

The crude oil and natural gas volumes reported for each type of energy resource category are the best estimates that can be elaborated based on a combination of facts and assumptions regarding:

• the geophysical characteristics of the rocks;

• the fluids trapped within those rocks;

• the capability of the extraction technologies used;

• the prices received; and

• the costs paid to produce oil and natural gas.

However, not all fossil fuel estimates are based on the same combination of facts and assumptions mentioned above. For example, oil and natural gas-in-place estimates are based on fewer facts and more assumptions, while proved reserves are based mostly on facts and fewer assumptions (Today in Energy, 2018).

Figure 1.1 Stylized representation of oil and natural gas resource categorizations. 

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA).

It is important to highlight that according to the Petroleum Resources Management System (2007) report, the estimation of petroleum resource quantities involves the interpretation of volumes and values that have an inherent degree of uncertainty. The same thing can be said in the case of natural gas. For this reason, it is impossible to provide, with the current technology, precise volumes and values of either oil or natural gas at any given place and time.

Within all available fossil fuels, natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the projection period until 2040. Global natural gas consumption is projected to increase by 1,9% per year until 2040. Abundant natural gas resources and robust production, including rising supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane, are expected to contribute to the strong competitive position of natural gas in comparison to oil and coal within the energy mix of several countries. Although liquid fuels—mostly petroleum-based—are expected to remain the largest source of world energy consumption, their share of world marketed energy consumption is projected to drop by 3% during the period 2012–40 falling from 33% in 2012 to 30% in 2040 (International Energy Outlook 2016 with Projection to 2040, 2016).

Several factors will contribute to the decline in the consumption of liquid fuels within the energy mix of many countries. One of these factors is the foreseeable rise of oil prices in the long-term, which will lead many energy users to adopt more energy-efficient technologies and to switch away from liquid fuels to the consumption of another energy source for electricity generation and heating, when feasible. Coal is expected to be the world's slowest-growing energy source during the projected period. It is expected to rise by 0,6% per year and is likely to be surpassed by natural gas by 2030 (International Energy Outlook 2016 with Projection to 2040, 2016).

According to the report mentioned above, world oil consumption and other liquid fuels are expected to grow from 90 million barrels per day in 2012 to 100 million barrels per day in 2020, and 121 million barrels per day in 2040; this means an increase of 34,4% for the whole period considered. However, it is important to single out that most of the growth in liquid fuels consumption is not in the electricity generation sector but the transportation and industrial sectors. In the transportation sector, liquid fuels will continue to provide most of the energy consumed at least during the foreseeable future.

The high growth registered in the past years in the use of different renewable energy sources for electricity generation and heating in several countries, the rise in energy investment in many of them, and the increase in new energy capacities at world level have changed the landscape for the energy sector worldwide. There has been not only an accelerated growth in the use of different renewable energy sources for electricity generation and heating in many countries but also an improvement in the evolution of the technology associated with this type of energy sources. This development has contributed not only to the fall in prices of many renewable energy sources used for electricity generation and heating, but also to a greater separation between the economic growth of the different countries, the greenhouse gas emissions produced using specific energy sources, and the abrupt climatic changes that are taking place worldwide. Most countries have achieved a more diversified energy mix with growth in community ownership and evolution of microgrids (see Figs. 1.2 and 1.3) (World Energy Resources 2016, used with the permission of the World Energy Council, www.worldenergy.org).

According to Figs. 1.2 and 1.3, the participation of oil in the world primary energy consumption has been increased during the period under consideration by 0,71%, rising from 33,49% in 2010 to 34,2% in 2017. It is expected that this trend will continue without change during the coming years. On the other hand, the participation of natural gas in the world primary energy consumption has been decreased by 0,3% falling from 23,7% in 2010 to 23,4% in 2017. However, it is projected that the participation of natural gas in the world primary energy consumption will increase during the coming years. Finally, the involvement of coal in the world primary energy consumption has been reduced by 12,24% falling from 39,84% in 2010 to 27,6% in 2017. It is predictable that the participation of coal in the world primary energy consumption will continue to fall in the coming years, as