The Climate Matrix

By Téo Corthout

This book is an independent view on climate.
A first chapter explains how climate works. How can we measure climate? What drives climate?
The Second chapter shows the fierceness and brutality with which climate impacts human society the last 4000years.
A third chapter a window to the past and to the future in terms of millions of years. I admit I was really surprised to see what climate is doing in terms of millions of years.
This book will guide you through your world as you cannot imagine your world. Mega lakes of hundreds of kilometer and hundreds of meter deep disappear and appear like mushrooms. Half a planet dies and comes back alive in a couple of millennia. The dynamics are sometimes mindboggling.
This book shows the complex interaction of atmosphere and live and reverse to an extend you may not have expected.
This book makes the hard work visible of organizations, researches, universities, institutions, sponsors. They make the invisible visible. Thank you!
This book also pointed to the vulnerability of this planet. Climate can destroy faster and more than humans can, at the other hand humans have the possibility to fix climate as we understand climate drivers better.
Téo Corthout

• Language: English
• Publisher: Books on Demand
• Release date: Feb 8, 2017
• ISBN: 9783743108691

Téo Corthout

Téo Corthout was 7 years old when he was fascinated by the disappearance of ancient civilizations such as the Mayas ... While the climate web got more and more accurate and complete, he would understand that megadroughts are rather the rule than the exception everywhere on the planet. The Lacandon (Figure 2.2 1 p.7) became a permanent drive and presence during years of his climate quest. He describes them as: "the white angels of the forest". When he was 8 years old he was climbing in trees higher than high, and dug tunnels and holes deeper than deep. "The Climate Matrix" is written in honor of K'in Chankin Chanuk, one of the most remarkable persons he has met. The Lacandon represent ancient wisdom and tradition. The Lacondon represent the fight against colonial powers and climate degradation which came to a double collapse of the Maya civilizations. Twenty years late,1988, he would look for something more inspiring and challenging than Master of Science in Engineering Technology. In a couple of years, he managed to be fluent in 8 languages. A step stone to the planet. New languages and exotic cultures, a sharp contrast with his technical education. At the break of the rise of the machines. Soon automatization and social media would rule the world. 2004, the rise of the machines. From the window from his plane, he sees month by month, the impact of humans on the surface of the Earth. From the sky, black domes above our cities (Mexico, Moscow) were visible. Soon, brownish air was visible above our countries. 2012, the Climate Matrix started as a spin-off of my reforestation project "3-FORCE". The goal of 3-FORCE was: each person plants just as many trees to offset their personal emissions. A simple and efficient idea yes indeed! But, already at an initial stage I was concerned by tree growth in function of time, in a rapidly heating world. With: "in function of time", I mean over 50, 100 years because that is the time frame in which trees grow. A basic Google Earth based model uploaded with hundreds of climatic plots emerged. The model became of such a size there was a need for stabilizing all information in order not to lose the knowledge. It took a year to make the book readable for the public. The Climate Matrix would expose a fascinating future. Where man will have to do MUCH better than compensating some CO2. Some much bigger monsters a lurking there out in the dark.

Book preview

Author

1 Introduction

I’m working now 5years on climate studies, which initially I thought it would be a matter of months.

Numbers, number, numbers and more numbers tumbling down like in the movie The Matrix (The Wachowski Brothers 1999). A non-stop flow of numbers. The numbers kept comming to the point the numerical ocean was overflowing, pushing me further back into time, to spaces and times I never could imagined.

Chaos!

Nothing is more organized than Chaos.

While the years went on I started to see the dynamics of climate out the waterfall of numbers. While there was little time to see television, or following the news. Instead I got new insights, new small discoveries almost on a daily base. It would turn out climate is a very, very complex process, no wonder many valid studies ended with: we don’t know if more research is required.

The process of unraffling climate was very intriguing. The search, the quest, the road was fascinating, day by day to discover everything linked to climate. There are basic processes that drive this planet we even don't know they exist. How many parameters are involved? Everything is linked to climate.

Bit by bit I converted the gray mass of numbers into pictures. The invisible became visible by standardizing, stretching, zooming synchronizing the numbers until the nonsense became sense. Linking the bits of the puzzle. First bits and pieces. Then connecting regional patterns. Revising and updating bits and pieces. Revising teleconnections. Adding missing links until the answer on how works climate? is satisfactory.

2 The reason.

2.1 Trees.

The Climate Matrix started as a spin-off of my reforestation project 3-FORCE.

The goal of 3-FORCE was: each person plants just as many trees to offset their personal emissions. A simple and efficient idea yes indeed!

But, already at an initial stage I was concerned by tree growth in function of time, in a rapidly heating world. With: in function of time, I mean over 50, 100 years because that is the time frame in which trees grow.

From the business or the economic perspective you can go on with a reforestation project, but from the scientific and ethical point of view the same question returns: is my forest, my country still green or will it turn into savanna or grassland within a generation? In that case, all your reforestation money is just wasted"? Not temperature but net precipitation, net water availability determines a successful reforestation project. Eventually, it has cost me about 5years to find a basic, reasonable answer on a relatively high-resolution region by region to have an idea what is temperature, what is precipitation, what is climate, what is this planet, how does this planet behave? It was very intriguing. The search, the quest, the road was very fascinating … day by day to discover that everything is linked to climate and that everything is connected.

2.2 Los Lacandones.

The Climate Matrix is written in honor of K’in Chankin Chanuk, one of the most remarkable persons I have ever met, and the Lacandon people as a hole. Written in honor for the Lacandon preservation and respect for their environment. The Lacandon represent ancient wisdom and tradition. The Lacondon represent the fight against colonial powers and climate degradation which came to a double collapse of the Maya civilizations.

I was like 6 years old when I was fascinated by the disappearance of ancient civilizations such as the Mayas... While my climate web got more and more accurate and complete, I would understand that megadroughts are rather the rule than the exception everywhere on the planet.

The Lacandon (Figure 2.2-1 p.→) became a permanent drive and presence during years of climate quest. They are the white angels of the forest.

Figure 2.2-1 The Lacandon, Chiapas Mexico

3 2010 - The first steps.

1648 Jan Baptist van Helmont potted a willow tree. He measured the amount of soil, the weight of the tree and the water he added. After five years, the plant had gained about 74 kg (164 lbs.). Since the amount of soil was basically the same as it had been when he started his experiment (it lost only 57 grams), he deduced that the tree's weight gain had come from water. Since it had received nothing but water and the soil weighed practically the same as at the beginning, he argued that the increased weight of wood, bark, and roots had been formed from water alone (van Helmont 1653).

One reason why this article is important to me because Jan lived around the corner. He introduced the word gas in science. The main reason why this article so important is that it give an answer to the question: What is CO2, what is a gas?. A tree converts gas into solid material, the tree in some sense evaporates during the rotting process or when it is burnt.

The same as the misinterpretation of van Helmont that the increased weight came from the water we as a human society face today. Our understanding of climate and processes that drive climate are in their baby shoes. Often I feel I live in times where people still think the Earth is flat.

3.1 CO2 – Does CO2 increase global temperature?

In 2009, in an initial phase of the project, I made calculations on CO2 emissions. First I had to find an answer to the question does CO2 increase global temperature or does it come from the sun or the earth tectonics? This was in times where there was no global consensus that CO2 had anything to do with global warming just as much as cigarettes have anything to do with long cancer.

In 2010 I found the answer in calculations of the CO2 content in magma. Then I plotted all earth its biggest magma eruptions against temperature rise at the time of the eruptions. Once this link was made the next question was how much CO2 is necessary to increase global temperature? What would be the maximum global temperature rise if we would burn all available resources?

3.1.1 CO2 from Earth tectonics.

There are a million active deep sea volcanos. 75,000 of these volcanoes rise over 1 kilometer (half a mile) above the ocean floor. The most productive volcanic systems on Earth are hidden under an average of 2,600 m (8,500 feet) of water. The mid-ocean ridges produce an estimated 75% of the annual output of magma. (Fisher, Heiken and Hulen 1997). Only around 25% CO2 is produced by terrestrial volcanos. Every cubic kilometer magma contains a percent of carbon dioxide.

Figure 3.1.1-1 White smokers emitting liquid carbon dioxide at the Champagne vent, Northwest Eifuku volcano, Marianas Trench Marine National Monument. Right picture is a close up of liquid carbon dioxide bubbles. (Lupton and Butterfield 2004).

This far the introduction. Sometimes volcanic activity switches a gear higher.

(Rampino and Stothers 1988) cite eleven distinct flood basalt episodes occurring in the past 250 million years, which created volcanic provinces and plateaus and coincided with mass extinctions.

In 2008, Bryan and Ernst refined the definition to narrow it somewhat: "Large Igneous Provinces are magmatic provinces with areal extents >1 x 10⁵ km², igneous volumes >1 x 10⁵ km³ and maximum lifespans of ~50 My that have intraplate tectonic settings or geochemical affinities, and are characterized by igneous pulse(s) of short duration (~1–5 My), during which a large proportion (>75%) of the total igneous volume has been emplaced. (Ernst and Bryan 2008)

9.3.1 CO2 from human activities.

The Mean CO2 Global plot is common knowledge (Plot 3.1.2-1 p.→) (Tans 2016), (Dlugokencky 2016). Carbon dioxide concentration follows an accelerating function in time.

= 1.210311E-02x² - 4.657605E+01x + 4.510984E+04.

At this rate, we reach 674 ppm CO2 global by 2100y.

Plot 3.1.2-1 Mean CO2 Global and mean Mauna Loa (Tans 2016)

3.1.3 CO2 - Burning all resources.

The World Resource Institute lists of 1.1E+15kg cumulated (fossil fuel + land use change) CO2 emissions from 1950to2000 (WRI 2005). This requires 0.3E+15kg pure Carbon. In this same period, temperatures rose 0.54°C.

The graph of the Energy Information Administration (Plot 3.1.3-1 p. →) (EIA, Int. Energy Outlook 2007 2007) shows us historical data and projections global energy consumption from 1950 to 2030. Extrapolated up to 2100 then converted the Btu to kg C results in 1.33E+15kg C from fossil fuel only. After cross-multiplication, this is good for 2.4°C extra. An optimistic carbon mass balance point to a +3°C scenario from 1950to2100.

Plot 3.1.3-1 Total Energy Consumption Global projections 2007to2030 (EIA, Int. Energy Outlook 2007 2007)

Plot 3.1.3-2 Total Energy Consumption Global projections 2011 to 2040 (EIA, Int. Energy outlook 2016 2016)

From 2007 to 2016 there is substantial change in fuel projection, however total fossil fuel consumption keeps rising up to at least 2040.

3.1.4 CO2 – Change of land (use) change of marine environment.

Deforestation, agriculture, draining swamps, thawing of permafrost, decreasing capacity of CO2 absorption of the Southern Ocean, CO2 release from the oceans, all the effects combined increase the total greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere.

3.2 Temperature

One must specify which temperature. Land? Ocean? Land and Ocean? Minimum? Maximum? Mean? Based on the global measured temperature anomaly (Plot 3.2-1 p. →) (Noaa 2016). I conclude:

From 1950yto2100y temperature would rise +2.7°C with zero population and economic growth and zero extra marine and zero additional permafrost response. The measured temperature anomaly follows an accelerating function in time.

= 7.418064E-05x² - 2.822595E-01x + 2.682782E+02

+2.7°C is an optimistic scenario for future global land and ocean combined temperature rise.

At this point, it could have become a religion. We will do all the possible in the world to make the bad thing –a 2.7°C global temperature rise - from not happening.

By answering the fundamental question: is CO2 responsible?, is 2.7°C bad? we do not answer anything. Very simple because I have never seen anyone suffering of 2.7°C warmer than today.

Plot 3.2-1 Measured Temperature index, anomaly Global Land Ocean combined (Noaa 2016)

3.3 Precipitation

Precipitation, rain is what makes or breaks! I want to know if my trees grow in Kenya, Sahel, Mexico, India and China. Or would a +3°C rise desiccate countries beyond recognition not only affecting vegetation but slam down complete societies?

How bad is drought?

3.4 Resources transform to reserves by means of Future Technology.

What no one will ever have told you is that future technology will be able to set free multiple times the current fossil hydrocarbon stocks (EIA, Natural Gas 1998: Issues and Trends 1998). Gas hydrates resources are from 3to4692times bigger than current natural gas resources. No small fish! I cite the first paragraph of the EIA on page 73of90:

Global estimates place the gas volume (primarily methane) resident in oceanic natural gas hydrate deposits in the range of 30,000 to 49,100,000 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), and in continental natural gas hydrate deposits in the range of 5,000 to 12,000,000 Tcf. Comparatively, current worldwide natural gas resources are about 13,000 Tcf and natural gas reserves are about 5,000 Tcf. (EIA, Natural Gas 1998: Issues and Trends 1998).

Robotization and drilling technologies are moving fast and will make today’s impossible to exploit resources available. Involved interest’s not only from business (don’t blame business), states and enduser are too big.

It is very unlikely the oil industry suddenly will put a shield on their door: as of today we are closed. On the other hand, it is unlikely the end-user suddenly says: you know what, as of today I leave my car at home.

Error! Reference source not found. Population estimates and probabilistic growth Global (United Nations Department of Economic ad Social Affairs 2015)

In a UN-high scenario global population will be 2.2 times bigger in 2100 than in 2010.

2.2times higher energy demand in 2100 than in 2010? What is available will be sold!

In fact, instead of finishing our fossil stocks, we are only beginning to use them. We just ran the warmup program. This is the bottom line of global warming. I propose a 100%alternative energy and a population stop as of today.

At this point the question was not anymore will global warming be 2.7°C. Nor an infinite discussion: CO2, yes or no. At this point, there was nobody anymore who had the answer how the future would liook like. So, I had to dig deep to find an answer. I had to go back in time and learn from history, from times when similar conditions were prevailing. A long and heavy quest would start to make the invisible visible.

4 What is Climate?

Everything eventually is linked to climate.

We have orbital parameters, biological life and the physical planet itself.

The final effect results in one hemisphere being hotter than the other.

4.1 Orbital parameters.

A basic parameter of climate is the position of the planet in the universe and in the solar system. The position of the planet its axis to its own plane of orbit is known as axial tilt (obliquity) with a period of 41000years. The position of the planet its axis with respect to fixed stars is known as axial precession with a period of 26000years. The shape of the orbit of the Earth eccentricity has a periodicy from 95000 to 125000 years and loosely combines into a 100ky-cycle under gravitational forces of Saturn and Jupiter. (Milankovitch cycles Wikipedia 2016)

4.2 The planet as a chemical resource.

Aside the orbital parameters we have the planet as a chemical resource for the biological life, which transforms the nutrients such as CO2. Life can make or break a planet.

Imagine if plants would flourish to such extent that they could remove all carbon out of the atmosphere. In other words, remove the food for terrestrial biological organisms – you, me– to the deep ocean where it could become inaccessible for reuse.

This process did not happen yet. In fact, life has stabilized temperature during a billion years using the carbon in the atmosphere, adding it back to the atmosphere, reusing the carbon to create multiple times new life with old evaporated life. At this point I would like to mention Jan Baptist van Helmond one of the first thinkers who understood this process. Eventually, carbon would be locked into the earth and locked off for reuse, buried as sediment.

In contrary to the recycling, reuse of organic components there is a very unique way to use the planets resources by the silicon life because of its efficiency in the sedimentation of CO2. The silicon life is without equal because it builds a true climate book thanks to its exceptionally high quality of conservation. Unlike its counterpart -the carbonate life -in hotter areas silicon life does not need high temperatures, it does not need sunlight. It dominates the vast Antarctic Seas where it feeds on an abundant unused resource: Silicon pushed up from 5km deep to the surface by upwelling. In the hotter areas without upwelling CaCO2 life of marine life dominates depositing chalk sediments.

Since the beginning of life there was a balance between the inorganic carbon added to the atmosphere and the removal of the organic carbon keeping global temperature relatively stable. The intense cooperation between the death and living planet allowed species to evolve over geological scale. CO2 the main food for life in general. Depleting the atmosphere would stop life itself by the lack of food. Giving the planet time to add CO2 until the heat comes back and CO2 as a food source becomes available where the cycle can restart.

This is the real miracle of this planet. Understanding how this process works and depends on orbital and planetarian parameters is particularly fascinating and complex.

4.3 The structure of the planet itself

The ocean currents, the air currents and shape of the continents change. The inorganic planet, without its biological life or the universe around it, changes and forms a fundamental parameter of climate.

The position and shape of the continents determine the direction and strength of ocean currents which in their turn change air currents. In their turn, the air currents modify the ocean currents.

Let's not forget the Albedo, which to my opinion is one of the most underestimated climate influencers.

All the planetarian parameters together define the size and shape of atmospheric cells. If any of these parameters changes the atmospheric cell will modify size and shift position.

The continents as obstacles define global climate. Everything is interlinked with each other and hooks up with each other. Countries may rise up from the deep sea (3to4km deep) while mountains (3to4km high) get washed into the sea. That is the second miracle of this planet. Eventually continents behave like clouds.

5 Climate data

5.1 How do we measure climate?

We cannot send a satellite back in time a million years to measure precipitation and temperature, so we will have to find techniques to work around, to get the best estimate temperature and precipitation.

We call these best estimates proxies. They are not precise, but as good as we can get.

Ways, tools to measure climate change: there are many, many tools to measure certain climate indicators. Chemical and, or mechanical composition of one location changes as a response to a changing climate.

Here is a grasp of common measurements I encountered:

d180 - read oxygen isotope 18 of Oxygen (do not confuse with the ice volume compensated one d18Oivc)

d13C - read carbon isotope 13 of Carbon (do not confuse with the ice volume compensated one d13Civc)

Uk’37 - calibration is based on alkenones of Coccolithophores (Figure 32.1-1 and Figure 32.1-2 p191)

TEX86 - calibration based on GDGT produced by Archaea ()

Mg/Ca ratio of planktonic and benthic foraminifera

SiO2 Opal accumulation rate

CaCO3 Carbonate accumulation rate

Magnetic susceptibility

Reflectance XRF

Chemical composition

Grain size

Glacier equilibrium line

Ice accumulation rate

Loss on ignition

Tree ring data

Pollen concentrations revive ancient habitats on a seasonal base

I personally prefer to measure %pollen of specific plants, %plankton species, % diatom species, %ostracods species, %benthic species, %planktic species because it gives a more seasonal info than general average data. The biological response to habitat changes revives ancient habitats on a