Intelligence in Energy

By Gülgün Kayakutlu and Eunika Mercier-Laurent

In a world of increasing population, this book explores the ways in which technological progress can provide smart energy management strategies to maximize resources. Energy is essential to the survival and development of mankind. Increased pressure on existing resources now requires wiser energy management, in addition to the discovery of new resources. Challenges such as the global trend of “cheaper, exponentially increasing demand in new geographies, and current climate change policies now call for new approaches and ways of thinking about energy use which consider the impact on all involved actors, and on nature. Energy generation and management can be made more efficient by making use of technological progress and sharing global experience in the smart use of this resource. This book presents a knowledge-based review of the past, present and future of energy usage, with mathematical, modeling, economic, technological and environmental perspectives. The ideas and experiences shared here propose wiser energy management as a system component of natural ecosystems.

• Explores the evolution of intelligence methods used in the energy field with a knowledge-based approach
• Reviews the history of methodologies used, with ontologies and knowledge maps of examples
• Presents case studies showing both the techniques and achievements of modern methodologies
• Describes regional approaches in search of alternative energy resources, aimed at reducing the use of fossil energy and enhancing the use of renewable energy

• Language: English
• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Release date: Feb 15, 2017
• ISBN: 9780081004807

Gülgün Kayakutlu

Gülgün Kayakutlu currently teaches Operations Research and Intelligent Optimization courses in the Industrial Engineering Department at the Istanbul Technical University, Turkey. She has previously worked for the International Energy Agency, and founded Sybase Turkey. She conducts and supervises joint university-company PhD projects on energy optimization.

Book preview

Intelligence in Energy

Gülgün Kayakutlu

Eunika Mercier-Laurent

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Dedication

Copyright

Acknowledgments

Foreword

Introduction

1: Humans and Energy

Abstract

1.1 History of heating

1.2 Landscape of energy

1.3 Evolution of energy use in business

1.4 Impact of technological development

1.5 Industrial leaning

1.6 Environmental constraints

2: Technology for Energy

Abstract

2.1 Technology for the energy generation

2.2 Technology for energy distribution

2.3 Technology for improving energy use

2.4 Optimization techniques for energy

3: Intelligence for Energy

Abstract

3.1 Artificial intelligence

3.2 Machine learning

3.3 Hybrid algorithms

4: Greening and Innovating with Renewable Energies

Abstract

4.1 Agenda 21 to COP21

4.2 Training for greening

4.3 Innovation for greening

5: Future of Energy

Abstract

5.1 Paradox of technology and human

5.2 Industrial renewal

5.3 From greening to smarting and wisening

5.4 Managing the uncertainty of dynamic demand

5.5 From collective to individual – some trends and experiments

5.6 New trends

Energy and the Future

Bibliography

Index

Dedication

To our beloved families

Copyright

First published 2017 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Press Ltd and Elsevier Ltd

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address:

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Notices

Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

For information on all our publications visit our website at http://store.elsevier.com/

© ISTE Press Ltd 2017

The rights of Gülgün Kayakutlu and Eunika Mercier-Laurent to be identified as the authors of this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress

ISBN 978-1-78548-039-3

Printed and bound in the UK and US

Acknowledgments

We would like to present our gratitude to Dr. Debra Amidon, founder of ENTOVATION Network, for having connected us.

Foreword

Marek Supik

Intelligence in energy is a very important issue for energy management, production and consumption. To face climate change, the attitudes of all involved actors have to evolve.

This book presents the above topic in the large spectrum – from history of heating, through energy status in developed and developing countries to different optimization methods urgently required for today and future energy dynamics preserving our living conditions.

The modern world is a huge consumer of energy. Newly discovered materials allow producing devices with significantly lower consumption per unit of energy. However, technologies are entering into newer areas of life. New countries join the developed and developing ones what increase the global demand for energy. The current time parameters (daily, annual) of energy consumption are changing. The exponential development of power electronics increases the demand for reactive power and raises new critical situations in power systems.

Conventional power plants influence the climatic change (warming), nuclear power plants afraid and have many enemies. Alternative energy sources are only a supplement to the classic ones. Renewable energy sources (RES) are not providing electricity continuously – wind is not always blowing, resources of water in reservoirs are not always sufficient; the Sun is not shining in the night. These resources are not able to ensure the continuity of supply despite the development of methods for energy storage.

Small systems are able to provide a flexibility of energy supply by acting independently. Large systems must ensure continuity despite the unpredictability of renewable energy sources which needs to be held in readiness of entire blocks of energy. In this changing context intelligent optimization techniques such as artificial and computational intelligence may play a significant role.

This book discusses the possibilities of energy generation ad use by the wide range of companies and organizations today and provides some perspective for the future. Main methods of optimization are presented as well as the main intelligent techniques having the potential to improve the life cycle of energy. The focus on training and education is extremely important to integrate new resources and technologies, but also to influence behaviours of intelligent use of energy through serious games.

Excellent perspectives on the future of the exponentially growing cities is also presented and propose some thoughts encouraging the readers involved in the cities to look for alternative solutions.

The implementing of Knowledge Management methods to optimize the use of energy sources and the demand for energy represents a great added value to current energy management systems. It will allow the real optimization and dynamic management in function of needs that are not easy to plan today.

Taking into account the different degree of economic development of all countries, available and prospective resources, degree of unfolding transmission networks, the possibility of exchange - the covered topic is very broad.

I wish all readers of this book to gain another view of energy life cycle, to think beyond the obvious, and realize that we can do better to protect our planet.

November 2016

Introduction

We must leave oil before it leaves us

Fatih Birol, Head of International Energy Agency

Energy has always been associated with the universe and the latter with living things and humans. Physical sciences have indentified many forms of energy such as kinetic, chemical, magnetic, gravitational, elastic and radiant energy that collaborate with one another.

As we did not yet understand how to wisely use the energy from the universe, we discovered natural phenomena and resources to provide energy for powering increasingly numerous devices that we invented. As the natural balance of the biosphere was not respected, we now have to fix the damages that we created. The concept of renewable energy is not new; however, considering the current challenges, it is brought up-to-date.

The motivation for writing this book came from daily exchanges with energy experts in the industry and with our students. During a visit to a manufacturing company, an energy manager said I do not need any load management software for scheduling the four natural gas tribunes that we are running; they work with full capacity 7 days 24 hours. It is obvious that an accountant has not yet shown the cost comparison to the managers. In other words, the investor has not yet seen that the full capacity usage means more expense than full capacity production. Nor has he met any ecologist inspector who taxes inefficient use of energy.

Considering the fact that energy is essential for today’s society, we wish to share with younger generations our thoughts and experiences and empower them with the ability to wisely manage scarcity and think about impacts when reviewing improvements on the subject.

One of the greatest changes in human history has been the unprecedented, rapid increase in population, due, among other reasons, to medical progress. We are now able to face serious diseases that we created. The worse human health is, the higher the energy demand. Global forecasts show that the energy demand will reach 1 zetajoule in 50 years.

The rapid increase in energy demand, especially in developing countries such as China and India, is a major concern. Dependence on other countries due to energy importation has always been one of the enemies for national economies. Even after using shale gas, the USA has more than 40% importation, as reported by the National Research Council. Both fossil fuel owners and importers are worried about the reliability on traditional sources, besides the issue of climate change caused by combustion. The volatility of energy prices has been causing a bullwhip effect on energy investments since the 1970s.

All of these issues have slowed down the investments in energy infrastructures and related technologies. Alternative energy sources have not yet been considered. Today, a few square kilometers of forests per year are still being cut for heating; more than 50% of energy is contributed by coal. Energy generation is inefficient, disconnected and centralized.

Nuclear power is considered a clean energy source, but its associated risks have to be evaluated. Recently, Ukraine and Japan were the victims of such risks. The causes of the Chernobyl disaster are different from those of Fukushima. The first is due to the poor means allocated for maintenance, while the second one is a result of linear thinking and money saving. Except for the ambitious magnetic fusion project ITER, this is one of the rare industries where the investor’s vision has changed very little since the coal mining days. In 2014, more than 300 miners died in the Soma coal mine accident in Turkey because coal investors wanted the full capacity work of manpower without enough security. Cost optimization in this industry is made only with respect to employee reduction.

The ubiquity of technology use often prevents energy users from taking effective action when rising prices provide a strong economic motivation to save energy. This is mainly because the history of material progress over the last century has made energy sources less costly in real terms and has made energy flows invisible to energy users. This has led to two major consequences, namely energy unawareness and energy invisibility.

This book presents a knowledge-based review of past, present and future energy uses. Energy is seen here from various perspectives: mathematical, energy process modeling, economic, technological and environmental.

Chapter 1 presents a historical sketch of energy in human life. It puts forward a short history of heating and harnessing natural resources by humans. It then presents the current landscape of energy in the world from various perspectives. It also discusses the influence of technological progress in energy lifecycles and ends by setting the scene for environmental constraints that are the enablers of innovation.

Chapter 2 provides an overview of current trends, components and technologies for energy generation and distribution. It then reviews the main optimization techniques. Finally, it covers uncertainty handling.

Chapter 3 describes a large spectrum of intelligent technologies useful for energy lifecycles as well as in other related fields. Major artificial intelligence techniques are described here and some examples of applications are given. Finally, it highlights the art of combining various techniques for solving complex problems effectively.

Chapter 4 provides a review of international greening commitments with their impacts on macro-energy balancing models. It also underlines the role of training and innovation in converting commitments into action.

Finally, Chapter 5 presents some current experiments, trends and projects that open the door for a new way of thinking in energy use.

We hope that this book will allow readers to consider energy differently and will inspire the evolution of existing professions and the creation of new ones in the energy field.

We would like to promote the wise use of energy and intelligent techniques to manage it, an alternative way of considering energy from various perspectives and as a system component of our natural ecosystems.

We expect your feedback on http://intelligence-in-energy.eu

1

Humans and Energy

Abstract

In ancient times, the Sun was considered as God. In Mesopotamia, in 4500 BCE, houses were built from sun-dried bricks; the exterior was white washed to serve as a defense to radiant heat. Small lamps fueled by sesame oil provided lighting. After the month of September in rainy season, houses were heated by burning palm fronds or palm wood.

Keywords

Business; Constraints; Energy; Energy policies; Heating; Humans; Industrial leaning; Investments; Technological development

1.1 History of heating

In ancient times, the Sun was considered as God. In Mesopotamia, in 4500 BCE, houses were built from sun-dried bricks; the exterior was white washed to serve as a defense to radiant heat. Small lamps fueled by sesame oil provided lighting. After the month of September in rainy season, houses were heated by burning palm fronds or palm wood.

Korean and Roman societies were using under-floor radiant heating thousands of years ago. The Romans used a system of hypocausts, which pumped heated air into open spaces beneath raised buildings. Koreans used a radiant heating called ondol as far back as 1,000 BC, where a wood-burning furnace at one end of the home pumped hot air through the channels under the home, to a chimney on the other side (radiant heating is rumored to be the reason why Koreans take off their shoes when entering a home and sit on the floor) [GUE 13].

Humans have always explored the available resources, sometimes adapting them to the local climate.

European homes in the Medieval Ages were still heated primarily with fire on open hearths. Medieval homebuilders used a clay and straw (or wattle and daub) home insulation technique that was both efficient and environmental-friendly; in fact, it is a comeback among today’s green constructors.

In the 14th Century, European homes and castles adopted the use of chimneys – a dedicated hole in the ceiling – which allowed hearths to be moved from the center of the room to places against the wall. This led to a significant improvement in living spaces, but the popularity of chimneys spread slowly; they were still relatively uncommon 200 years later.

The next major stride in home heating came with the invention of the stove in the late 17th Century. Stoves became increasingly popular in the next two centuries, where wood or coal was used as the primary fuel. Coal, in particular, generated an especially large amount of soot that eventually proved to be detrimental to the environment; sulfur dioxide, a by-product of burning coal, is largely responsible for acid rain, and coal-burning stoves regularly left black stains on walls and ceilings. COP21, which took place in Paris in 2015, put emphasis on reducing coal and coke coal heating as well as on replacing coal power plants by renewable energies.

The ceramic stove was probably invented in the 18th Century with the objective of consuming less wood or coal. With the first energy crisis, these stoves became very popular in cold countries.

Many houses are still using radiators invented in the 19th Century. However, the recent trend is to go independent, combining locally available renewable energies as discussed later.

1.2 Landscape of energy

The global energy landscape is undergoing radical changes. The limits of fossil energy resources are expanded with technological improvements and research focused on renewable energies. Shale gas discoveries in the USA and Mexican privatization of oil delivery have led to an increase in energy supply and caused an unexpected drop in prices. This has become the joy of North American countries, which are moving closer to independence in energy supply.

European countries import energy from North African countries and Russia. Yet, Europe has made a great improvement in energy use so that energy consumption in 2013 was exactly the same as in 1990 despite economic growth. German success with renewable energies has opened the door for removing nuclear energy plants. France has improved smart cities using renewable energies, although 18 nuclear plants are still kept. Furthermore, energy security in Europe is improved.

Figure 1.1 A history of heating. Modified from [HH 13]

Energy specialists have identified China, India, South Korea, Singapore and the rest of the developing Asian countries as the largest growing energy consumers of the globe. Until 2040, a 60% growth is expected in that region. The USA and China are collaborating on the biggest resources of shale gas in China.

With respect to price reduction, the OPEC is expected to cut the energy supply. No cut has been seen in Saudi Arabia or Libya even during their political instabilities. China has decided to take a bigger role in the Middle East. China’s energy ties with Iraq, Iran and even Kuwait emerged from strong foundations of service and labor exports. Both the Middle East and Latin American oil producing countries are paying back the Chinese credits in crude oil.

Fatih Birol, the head of International Energy Agency, states that As South East Asian countries develop, they are moving towards the center of the global energy state. Although individual energy consumption rates are below the average, energy is consumed in the region and demand is growing in parallel with the increasing power use. Connecting the international grids will be an option to respond to the needs of South Asian countries [HAR 16].

Discussion on hydrocarbon potential is ongoing between South American countries such as Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina and Colombia. Explorations may allow the region to have a more important role in the energy landscape. However, security issues and the technological challenges continue.

The Australian government has recently established an aggressive target to increase efficiency in energy production as a self-sufficient energy consumer.

Figure 1.2 Prime Energy demand in 2040

India is the fourth largest energy consumer in the world and its GDP growth is observed to depend on how well the country manages its energy industry. A series of political reforms announced in 2014 have attracted investors in oil and gas industries. New revenue sharing models have been developed for renewable investments, since rooftop panels are seen as the best solution to avoid service issues.

South Africa is converting coal plants into renewable energy investments. The rest of the African countries are hoping to overcome scarcity through the newly discovered energy industry. Ghana has just discovered oil resources and is planning to double its production every year. Dropping oil prices