Search Theory And U-Boats In The Bay Of Biscay

By Captain R. Gregory Carl

Threats to our nation’s resources and forces are becoming increasingly lethal and mobile. Therefore, our ability to locate and interdict these threats is more important than ever. Search theory is one tool that is vital to countering the increasing threat. This research presents a multi-agent simulation, built around the allied search for U-boats in the Bay of Biscay during World War II, which extends several classic search theory algorithms. Comparison of techniques is based on the effectiveness of finding high-valued, mobile assets. A JAVA-based multi-agent simulation model is designed, built and tested, and used to demonstrate the existence of differing emergent behaviors between search patterns currently used by the United States military.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Lucknow Books
• Release date: Nov 6, 2015
• ISBN: 9781786253163

Captain R. Gregory Carl

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Text originally published in 2003 under the same title.

© Pickle Partners Publishing 2015, all rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted by any means, electrical, mechanical or otherwise without the written permission of the copyright holder.

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Although in most cases we have retained the Author’s original spelling and grammar to authentically reproduce the work of the Author and the original intent of such material, some additional notes and clarifications have been added for the modern reader’s benefit.

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SEARCH THEORY AND U-BOATS IN THE BAY OF BISCAY

by

R. GREGORY CARL

Captain, USAF

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

Acknowledgments 5

List of Figures 6

List of Tables 7

Abstract 8

I. Introduction 9

1.1 General Issue 9

1.2 Background 9

1.3 The Problem 10

1.4 Research Objectives 10

1.5 Scope of Research 10

1.6 Contribution of Research 10

II. Literature Review 12

2.1 Agent-Based Simulation 12

2.1.1 Applications of Agents. 12

2.2 Operational Context for Analysis; Hunting U-boats in World War II 13

2.3 Search Theory Concepts, Terms and Classical Approaches 15

2.3.1 Search and Rescue in World War II. 16

2.3.2 Search Possesses Structure of Its Own. 17

2.3.3 Recent Uses of Search. 17

2.3.4 Concepts Defined—Mathematical Foundation for Search Theory. 18

2.3.5 Regarding Classical Approaches. 20

2.3.6 The Role of Computer Simulation in Classical Search Theory. 21

2.4 More Modern Approaches to Search Theory 21

2.4.1 The Role of Computer Simulation in Modern Search Theory. 22

2.4.2 Computer Simulation to Determine Optimum Search Paths. 23

III. Methodology 25

3.1 Introduction 25

3.2 Search Patterns Defined 25

3.3 Simulation Assumptions 27

IV. Results 30

4.1 Overview 30

4.2 Scenario One, Non-Overlapping Search Regions 30

4.3 Scenario Two, Overlapping Search Regions 32

V. Conclusion 35

5.1 Recommendations for Future Research 35

Appendix A: Non-overlapping Scenario Data Tables (20 Iterations) 37

Barrier Patrol Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 37

Parallel Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 38

Creeping Line Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 39

Square Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 40

Sector Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 41

Appendix B: Non-overlapping Scenario Data Tables (30 Iterations) 42

Barrier Patrol Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 42

Creeping Line Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 43

Square Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 44

Appendix C: Overlapping Scenario Data Tables (30 Iterations) 45

Barrier Patrol Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 45

Parallel Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 46

Creeping Line Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 47

Square Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 48

Sector Pattern Output (Mean Per Month) 49

REQUEST FROM THE PUBLISHER 49

Bibliography 51

Vita 54

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Ray Hill, my reader, Dr. J.O. Miller and AFIT PhD candidate Maj. Lance Champagne. Their guidance and individual perspectives provided a chorus of reason without which I could not have completed this thesis effort on time. I