Fission, Fusion and The Energy Crisis
By S. E. Hunt
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Fission, Fusion and The Energy Crisis - S. E. Hunt
Birmingham
CHAPTER 1
Living on Capital
Publisher Summary
In financial circles and even in the management of our personal affairs, to live from accumulated capital reserves is not a well-advised procedure, yet this is being done in the consumption of fuel to produce electricity and other forms of power on which our present standard of living is dependent. This chapter discusses the power requirements and available fuel supplies on a global scale and explains that the unit Q has been chosen to measure the energy produced by burning 46,500 million tons of coal, producing approximately 300 billion kilowatt hours of electrical energy. It is estimated that from the birth of Christ to the beginning of the industrial revolution, the world consumption of energy was approximately 4Q. This was principally produced by burning wood and animal refuse, and during this time, little, if any, use was made of the capital resources of coal, oil, natural gas—the fossil fuels—which had been accumulated since prehistoric times. Future predictions of fuel requirements are very difficult; the main factors affecting these are clearly the growth of world population and improvements in the standard of living, because, in the utilization of conventional fuels at least, any dramatic improvement in the efficiency at which fuel is converted into energy cannot be reasonably expected.
IN FINANCIAL circles and even in the management of our personal affairs, to live from accumulated capital reserves is not regarded as a very satisfactory procedure, yet we are doing exactly this in the consumption of fuel to produce electricity and other forms of power on which our present standard of living is critically dependent.
In order to discuss the power requirements and available fuel supplies on a global scale, we must define a suitable unit. Economists have chosen the unit ‘Q’, which is equivalent to the energy produced by burning 46,500 million tons of coal, producing approximately 300 billion (3 × 10¹⁴) kilowatt hours of electrical energy. This is, of course, an extremely large unit, but an appropriate one for estimating our present and future requirements. Perhaps the most significant factor to be considered is the rate at which these requirements have grown throughout our history. It is estimated that from the birth of Christ to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, about A.D. 1850, the world consumption of energy was approximately 4 Q. This was principally produced by burning some of the current year’s growth of wood and animal refuse, and during this time little, if any, use was made of the ‘capital resources’ of coal, oil, natural gas, etc., the so-called fossil fuels which had been accumulated since prehistoric times due to under-exploitation of growing fuel sources. These capital reserves were in fact continuing to accumulate during this period. By 1850 we were using fuel at the rate of some 1 Q per century, and a hundred years later, in 1950, the consumption had increased to approximately 10 Q per century. In 1970 alone we used approximately 0.2 Q, that is the rate was approximately double that in 1950, and immediately before the oil crisis the world energy demand was increasing with a ten-year doubling time. Forward predictions of fuel requirements are notoriously difficult; the main factors affecting these are clearly the growth of world population and the improvement in the standard of living, since, in the utilisation of conventional fuels at least, we can no longer reasonably expect any dramatic improvement in the efficiency at which fuel is converted into