The Fog Of War: Effects Of Uncertainty On Airpower Employment

By Major Frederick L. Shepherd III

This paper addresses the question: Can fog be identified from past air campaigns and applied to make future air combat more effective? The purpose is to educate the reader on fog and to offer techniques for coping with fog in future air combat. The paper is divided into three sections: Defining fog; presenting examples of fog from the air campaigns of World War II Europe and the Persian Gulf War; and recommending ways to cope with it.
This paper defines fog as uncertainty about the enemy, the environment, and friendly forces. Examples will illustrate these uncertainties so the reader can learn to identify uncertainty in the air combat environment. The paper concludes with an analysis of uncertainty, along with recommendations for coping with uncertainty in the employment of airpower. These recommendations are under the five general areas of technology, leadership, training, experience, and planning.
The author believes that the key to coping with uncertainty is to understand it. Thus, the airpower practitioner needs to know what uncertainty is, what it looks like, and how to avoid it, or at least minimize its adverse impacts.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Tannenberg Publishing
• Release date: Aug 15, 2014
• ISBN: 9781782896807

Major Frederick L. Shepherd III

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Text originally published in 1997 under the same title.

© Pickle Partners Publishing 2014, all rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted by any means, electrical, mechanical or otherwise without the written permission of the copyright holder.

Publisher’s Note

Although in most cases we have retained the Author’s original spelling and grammar to authentically reproduce the work of the Author and the original intent of such material, some additional notes and clarifications have been added for the modern reader’s benefit.

We have also made every effort to include all maps and illustrations of the original edition the limitations of formatting do not allow of including larger maps, we will upload as many of these maps as possible.

THE FOG OF WAR: EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AIRPOWER EMPLOYMENT

by

Major Frederick L. Shepherd III

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3

Preface 4

Abstract 5

Chapter 1 — Introduction 6

Chapter 2 — Defining the Fog of War 7

Chapter 3 — Examples of the Fog of War 11

The Allied Air Campaign in World War II Europe 11

Uncertainty about the Enemy 11

Intentions. 11

Forces. 11

Objectives. 12

Unpredictability /Rationality. 12

Adaptability. 12

Uncertainty about the Environment 12

Weather. 12

Danger. Another 13

Chance Occurrences (The Unexpected). 13

Uncertainty about Friendly Forces 13

Leadership: Doctrine 13

Intelligence. 13

Information: Missing 14

Communication. 14

The Coalition Air Campaign in the Persian Gulf War 15

Uncertainty about the Enemy 15

Intentions. 15

Forces. 15

Objectives. 16

Unpredictability. 16

Adaptability. 16

Uncertainty about the Environment 16

Weather 16

Terrain 16

Danger 17

Exertion 17

Chance Occurrences 17

Uncertainty about Friendly Forces 17

Leadership: Decision Making 17

Intelligence. 18

Information: Imperfect 18

Information: Missing 18

Communication Channels 18

Communication Overload 19

Collective Risk 19

Chapter 4 — Coping with the Fog of War 20

Technology 20

Leadership 21

Training 21

Experience 22

Planning 22

Chapter 5 — Conclusion 24

REQUEST FROM THE PUBLISHER 25

Bibliography 26

Primary Sources 26

Secondary Sources 26

PREFACE

This project’s motivation began about 10 years ago when I, as a young pilot in an operational fighter squadron, heard experienced pilots refer to the fog of war during briefings. They used the term to explain the difference between training and actual combat. They would say, "don’t expect things to go smoothly