Baseball's All-Time Best Hitters: How Statistics Can Level the Playing Field

By Michael J. Schell

Tony Gwynn is the greatest hitter in the history of baseball. That's the conclusion of this engaging and provocative analysis of baseball's all-time best hitters. Michael Schell challenges the traditional list of all-time hitters, which places Ty Cobb first, Gwynn 16th, and includes just 8 players whose prime came after 1960. Schell argues that the raw batting averages used as the list's basis should be adjusted to take into account that hitters played in different eras, with different rules, and in different ballparks. He makes those adjustments and produces a new list of the best 100 hitters that will spark debate among baseball fans and statisticians everywhere.


Schell combines the two qualifications essential for a book like this. He is a professional statistician--applying his skills to cancer research--and he has an encyclopedic knowledge of baseball. He has wondered how to rank hitters since he was a boy growing up as a passionate Cincinnati Reds fan. Over the years, he has analyzed the most important factors, including the relative difficulty of hitting in different ballparks, the length of hitters' careers, the talent pool that players are drawn from, and changes in the game that raised or lowered major-league batting averages (the introduction of the designated hitter and changes in the height and location of the pitcher's mound, for example). Schell's study finally levels the playing field, giving new credit to hitters who played in adverse conditions and downgrading others who faced fewer obstacles. His final ranking of players differs dramatically from the traditional list. Gwynn, for example, bumps Cobb to 2nd place, Rod Carew rises from 28th to 3rd, Babe Ruth drops from 9th to 16th, and Willie Mays comes from off the list to rank 13th. Schell's list also gives relatively more credit to modern players, containing 39 whose best days were after 1960.


Using a fun, conversational style, the book presents a feast of stories and statistics about players, ballparks, and teams--all arranged so that calculations can be skipped by general readers but consulted by statisticians eager to follow Schell's methods or introduce their students to such basic concepts as mean, histogram, standard deviation, p-value, and regression. Baseball's All-Time Best Hitters will shake up how baseball fans view the greatest heroes of America's national pastime.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Princeton University Press
• Release date: Dec 3, 2013
• ISBN: 9781400850631

Book preview

BASEBALL’S ALL-TIME BEST HITTERS

MICHAEL J. SCHELL

BASEBALL’S

ALL-TIME

BEST HITTERS

How Statistics Can Level the Playing Field

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY

Copyright © 1999 by Michael J. Schell

Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540

In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Chichester, West Sussex

All Rights Reserved

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Schell, Michael J., 1957–

Baseball’s all-time best hitters : how statistics can level the playing field / Michael J. Schell

p.  cm.

Includes bibliographical references (p.  ) and index.

ISBN 978-0-691-12343-1

1. Batting (Baseball)—United States—Statistics. 2. Baseball players—Rating of—United States. 3. Baseball players—United States—Statistics. I. Title.

GV869.S34   1999

CIP

Photos from National Baseball Hall of Fame Library, Cooperstown, N.Y., unless otherwise credited

Photos of Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs from Photo File Inc.

Photo on p. 13 from CORBIS/Bettmann

Photo on p. 133 from CORBIS/Farrell Grehan

This book has been composed in Electra.

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992(R1997) (Permanence of Paper)

http://pup.princeton.edu

(Pbk.)

To My Parents, Joseph and Irene Schell

CONTENTS

List of Figures    ix

List of Tables    xi

Technical Notes    xvii

Preface    xix

Introduction: In the Dugout    3

PART I   The Method    13

1 On Deck with the Qualifying Players    15

2 First Base—Adjusting for Late Career Declines    29

3 Second Base—Adjusting for Hitting Feasts and Famines    45

4 Third Base—Adjusting for League Batting Talent    67

5 Home—Adjusting for Ballpark    103

PART II   The Findings    133

6 The Adjusted Top 100 Hitters    135

7 Top Hitters by Position    157

8 Best Single-Season Batting Averages    173

9 The Ballparks    185

10 On Base Percentage    213

11 The Hall of Fame    227

12 Where Would the Current Stars Rank?    241

Afterword: Post-Game Wrap-Up    249

Appendix I   Abbreviations and Glossary    253

Appendix II  Right- vs. Left-Handed Hitting    257

Appendix III League Batting Averages    259

Appendix IV Ballpark Effect Batting Averages    269

Appendix V  League Base on Balls Averages    275

References    283

Index    285

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

TECHNICAL NOTES

Chi-Square Test    26

P-value    26

Longevity-Adjusted Batting Average    41

Mean-Adjusted Batting Average    60

Standard Deviation and Variance    92

Standardization    96

Standard Deviation-Adjusted Batting Average    96

Linear Regression    108

Confidence Band for Linear Regression    109

Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r)    109

Fully Adjusted Batting Average    125

Backward Elimination in Regression    189

Equivalence of On Base Percentage Formulae    215

Fully Adjusted Base on Balls Average    216

PREFACE

Who are the greatest all-time hitters in baseball? That was a question that fascinated me as a twelve-year-old in 1969 when I first discovered baseball and it still fascinates me today. I remember poring over the list of the year-by-year batting champions from an almanac. The consistency of Ty Cobb’s name certainly left an Impression. I also loved numbers. Today I am a professional statistician. What better combination of interests could there be than baseball and numbers?

That my life in baseball began in 1969 is probably not accidental to my decision to write this book. Street and Smith’s Baseball preview in 1969 included an article on the recent decline in batting averages. The overall batting average in the American League had slipped to an all-time low of .230.

To longtime baseball fans, 1968 is known as the year of the pitcher. Carl Yastrzemski of the Boston Red Sox was the only American Leaguer to top .300 that year, winning the batting title with a .301 average. The Situation was not much better in the National League, whose .243 league batting average was the lowest in sixty years and third lowest ever. Bob Gibson, a fireballer for the St. Louis Cardinals, had a 1.12 ERA for the year and pitched 13 shutouts. Taking nothing away from Gibson, major league baseball wanted more hitting.

The powers-that-be voted to lower the pitcher’s mound from 15 inches above home plate to 10 inches above the level of home plate. I remember reading one pitcher lament in spring training in 1969, I don’t like it. It’s like pitching out of a foxhole. They also shrank the strike zone. The result was that, in 1969, batting averages went up 7 points in the National League and 16 points in the American League.

The Street and Smith’s Baseball article described eras in baseball which featured strong differences in batting average. The 1969 season provided direct evidence about how rule changes can affect batting averages from one year to the next. Thus, it seemed possible to me that batting averages decades apart could also differ for reasons other than absolute player ability. Since no rule changes have been made since 1969 with the express intent of raising the individual hitter’s batting average, the recent fan is probably less aware of this. (The designated hitter rule in the American League raised the league batting average, not an individual’s batting average.)

Batting averages were relatively stable for an unprecedented quarter of a century, from 1969 to 1993. Now we are again experiencing rising batting averages and an onslaught of home runs. Because these changes were not planned, baseball pundits are confused. Commentators have come up with numerous explanations, such as: the ball is juiced, the players are stronger, the new ballparks are friendlier to the hitter, the pitchers are worse.

I believe that all of the explanations except the last one have some merit. Pitching doesn’t suddenly go bad in one or two years. Recent changes in the game are shifting the balance toward the hitter. I recently heard a baseball commentator suggest that the mound be raised next year! Does this mean that today’s pitchers are worse and need help? If so, does that imply that Mays, McCovey, Aaron, Bench, Carew, Killebrew, and Yastrzemski weren’t good in the 1960s and needed help when the mound was lowered?

The aim of this book is to identify the 100 all-time best hitters, where best hitters means the best hitters for average. Adjustments will be made for both major and subtle changes that have occurred throughout the game’s history in order to better determine who these players are. There will be some important changes from the traditional list. In particular, the recent and current hitters are much better than the traditional list reveals.

I wish to acknowledge those who have made many fine suggestions and comments during the writing of this book. Special thanks go to Sean O’Brien, Michael O’Malley, Joseph Schell, David Stephan, Michael Symons, and Bill Whitaker, who looked at several drafts of the book and whose insights are sprinkled throughout. I also thank Joe Black, Isaac Kim, Basia Korycka, Inchull Lee, Yuhua Lin, Noreen Martinez, Pete Palmer, Tom Ruane, Eddie Schell, Neil Traven, and Craig Turnbull, who read and critiqued parts of the book. I thank Bea Shube for her support and editorial insights. Pete Palmer also provided home and away ballpark data from 1993 to 1997 that were extremely useful.

I thank my many friends from the department of Biostatistics and the Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, who gave me tremendous personal support while I wrote this book.

I further thank my editor, Trevor Lipscombe, whose enthusiasm for the book was evident from his first reply letter. He, copy editor Bill Laznovsky, and the staff of Princeton University Press provided great encouragement to me by their interest during my months of writing.

BASE BALL’S ALL-TIME BEST HITTERS

INTRODUCTION In the Dugout

Never did I expect that writing this book would lead me into the San Diego Padres dugout. On July 28, 1997, however, two hours before that evening’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, there I was! Tony Gwynn had just returned his Louisville Slugger to the bat rack after batting practice.

Tony!—Fm Michael Schell, I called out. Tony Gwynn, the 7-time batting champion from the San Diego Padres, turned toward me and replied, Soooo—you’re the guy!

A month earlier I had sent a press release to the media relations people at the Padres saying that Gwynn was on the verge of clinching his standing as the best pure hitter in baseball history. A week earlier I had sent him a congratulatory note after he got the clinching hit. Two days before, sportswriter Wayne Lockwood presented my findings in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

I’ll talk with you in a minute, Gwynn added as he headed to chat with some early-bird fans that he knew.

I waited expectantly and a little nervously. Shaun O’Neill, a sports reporter for the North County Times told me that Gwynn was a very unassuming ballplayer who would downplay what I was going to say but would listen intently.

You’re putting pressure on me! Gwynn moaned jokingly as he approached.

He was hitting .391 and the media had been hounding him for weeks about the possibility of becoming the first player in 56 years to hit .400 for the season. That week, in fact, Gwynn was on the cover of both Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News.

You’ve got no pressure from me, I countered, you’ve already done it!

He sat down beside me and said, Show me what you found.

That’s what I plan to do in this book—show the reader what I’ve found by developing a method to compare players across baseball history, from the first pitch in 1876 to the present day.

The Tyranny of Traditional Top Hitters Lists

Most baseball encyclopedias and many almanacs have lists of top lifetime hitters or single season batting champions. Young fans memorize the names—Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth—and often their lifetime batting averages as well (.366, .358, .344, .342, respectively). These players have become mythological heroes of the game.

There is some sadness, though, among fans today since our favorite active players—Tony Gwynn, Mike Piazza, Ken Griffey Jr. are—hopelessly out of the top positions. Gwynn would rank 16th, Piazza 21st and Griffey fails to make the top 100. Moreover, Hall of Famers Hank Aaron and Willie Mays and all-time hits leader Pete Rose are off the list, while a host of relatively unknown players like Bibb Falk, Cecil Travis, Rip Radcliff, and Elmer Smith are on it. How can this be?

Knowing how extraordinary these current and recent players are, we become mystified by those on the list. How did they do it? Why were they so much better? The punch line, which is the subject of this book, is that they are not so much better. We fans have been misled by the averages. It is the unfortunate fact of life that fair appraisals of anything rarely come without effort.

Grandparents may tell you about how they bought a house for $15,000. Did they also tell you, however, that they only earned $6,000 per year then, too? Simply defined statistics, like batting average (which equals hits divided by at bats), may be fine to make comparisons between ballplayers playing in the same year in the same ballparks against the same pitchers. But why should these averages be used at all to compare a player who played at night in a domed stadium with astroturf with another player who played only day games in the open air on natural grass?

The question of who the greatest hitters are is a subject of considerable interest to baseball fans. It is a source of argument between father and son, between Dodger and Yankee fan, between the pure hitter fan and the slugger fan. The good news is that we can reasonably answer this question, when it is clearly posed. This is the legacy provided by baseball, which has a wealth of statistical data over a hundred-year period. The bad news is that the answer is not easily found in the baseball encyclopedias and almanacs. It is the aim of this book to identify the 100 greatest hitters, by applying four adjustments to the standard batting average.

Best Hitter Defined

What does the phrase best hitter mean? Hitting is composed of many things. For example, Tony Gwynn is excellent at getting hits but relatively