Japan is selling patrol vessels to the Philippines. Is Tokyo confronting Beijing with more 'aggressive diplomacy'?

The Philippines' purchase of Japanese patrol vessels amid growing tensions in the South China Sea is the latest indication of Tokyo's growing role as a security provider in the region, observers say, as they point to the need to confront Beijing through deterrence and more "aggressive diplomacy".

Analysts perceived such a role from Japan to be necessary with the United States preoccupied with two wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

The Philippine Foreign Affairs Department said on its website last Friday that Manila would purchase five patrol vessels from Japan, to be delivered between 2027 and 2028, and the purchase underscored the two countries' "unwavering commitment to enhance our maritime safety capabilities for the benefit of our nation and the broader maritime community".

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Funded by an Official Development Aid loan from Japan International Cooperation Agency, the US$507 million deal is Tokyo's largest to date with the Philippines' maritime law enforcement agency.

Mark Cogan, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan's Kansai Gaidai University, said Japan's growing role as a security provider in the region stemmed from the need to confront China through deterrence and more "aggressive diplomacy".

"It is a smart move and is indicative of the regional challenge that now awaits ... Japan needs partners, and it must become as much of a security partner as other countries like the Philippines need them to be," Cogan said, adding that most countries in the region, especially in Southeast Asia, needed reliable partnerships.

"The US is no longer reliable in the short term and is arguably distracted by Ukraine and Gaza," Cogan said, referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 and the Israel-Gaza war that began in October last year.

Japan's role as a security provider had been well in the making, as the country had been updating its security and defence posture for some time, Cogan says.

This, according to him, has been evident in Japan's updated National Security Strategy and National Defence Strategy, referring to the 2022 blueprints.

"Japan can compete as a security partner, or it can watch Beijing's tactics in the region escalate or have no choice but to be more accommodative," Cogan said.

Since the 1950s, Japan has sought to establish and maintain bilateral partnerships with Southeast Asian nations and Asean.

While relations largely centred on economic cooperation, they expanded to include political cooperation and security, particularly in non-traditional security threats such as illicit drug trafficking, piracy, and terrorism.

Last April, Japan established an official security help to provide military help and equipment to regional countries, with initial recipients including Malaysia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Fiji.

Tomoo Kikuchi, a professor at the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies in Japan's Waseda University, said many countries in the region would like to see a more proactive commitment by Japan to regional security.

"Today's regional geopolitical circumstances are not one in which Japan competes as a rising imperial power, but one in which it emerges as a defender of the rule-based order."

"But Japan has neither the will nor the capacity to act as a security provider beyond the region," Kikuchi said, adding that contrary to Chinese narratives, Tokyo is not perceived as a military threat in the region due to the pacifist stance it has adopted over the years.

Often critical of Japan's militarist past, China lashed out at Japan last year over its biggest military build-up since World War II, accusing Tokyo of helping Washington in its new Cold War against Beijing.

Last month, after Japan appointed a high-ranking ex-military official as the chief priest of the war-linked Yasukuni Shrine, Beijing urged Tokyo to face and reflect on its history of aggression, and take concrete actions to make a clean break with militarism.

"[Japan should] not cause further loss of trust to its Asian neighbours and the international community," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.

Chinese state tabloid the Global Times also weighed in last month with an article arguing that Japan strengthening its military with allies would harm regional peace and "maintain US hegemony".

Japan's role as security provider is in tandem with its allies', said Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Washington DC-based Hudson Institute, noting that last month, the US supported Manila through the deployment of a mid-range missile launcher through the delivery of BrahMos missiles from India. India delivered the supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines under a US$375 million deal signed in 2022.

Tokyo was keen to maintain military balance in the region, but doing so was tough due to limited resources and Beijing's rapid military modernisation, he says.

For instance, China inducted 148 new naval ships between 2013 and 2022, which Nagao pointed out is about the total number Japan has.

According to a Pentagon report on China's military last year, China has about 370 warships, and the number is set to grow to 395 by 2025 and 435 by 2030. The current US fleet has about 280 vessels.

"Japan is trying to seek a new way of supporting many countries around China and making China face multiple fronts to divide [Beijing's] resources," Nagao said.

Tan Ming Hui, an associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said Japan was steadily expanding its regional security role and strengthening partnerships, given uncertainties in the strategic environment.

"Within Southeast Asia, there is generally positive receptivity for a more proactive Japan."

"Long-term economic and multilateral engagement with Southeast Asia has contributed to Japan's image as a trusted partner," Tan said.

According to survey results published by Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute last month, Japan remains the most trusted major power in the region, with an overall trust level of 58.9 per cent, particularly in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

With a US presidential election in November, Cogan said Japan will need to worry about the "transactional diplomacy" of a second Donald Trump administration that "may demand more of Japan than it wants to give".

"In that calculation, it must develop new security partnerships within the region," Cogan said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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