Japan sees Philippines, Malaysia as 'like-minded' nations in military aid plan to counter China

Japan's plan to provide "like-minded" Asian countries with military aid has prompted concerns it may lead to a regional arms race as China grows more aggressive, but analysts say such fears are unjustified because of the limited size of the assistance.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said earlier this month that Tokyo would offer countries financial help to strengthen their defences, in a policy departure from rules forbidding the use of international aid for military purposes.

The Philippines, Malaysia and Fiji are expected to be the first recipients in the Overseas Security Assistance (OSA) scheme, which Matsuno said would be managed separately from the Overseas Development Assistance programme that has funded roads, dams and other civilian infrastructure in the region for decades.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

"By enhancing their security and deterrence capabilities, OSA aims to deepen our security cooperation with the countries, to create a desirable security environment for Japan," Japan's foreign ministry said.

Raymond Yamamoto, an assistant professor at Denmark's Aarhus University, said Japan's move was a new dimension of its foreign assistance.

"I see (this) as a paradigm shift in Japan's foreign policy," Yamamoto said. Concerns over whether the move would lead to an arms race were unjustified, he added, because of the limited size and scope of the assistance.

"The 2023 budget envisaged for military assistance is very small, at US$15 million, and Japan has made clear that it will not assist countries acquiring lethal weapons."

The move was "more a symbolic trust-building gesture that helps create or expand existing security ties with 'like-minded countries'", Yamamoto said, noting that the OSA not only addressed regional security concerns but also promoted Japanese security infrastructure and technology.

He added the plan would be "an important contribution to increasing the international competitiveness of [Japan's] weak defence industry".

Stephen Nagy, politics and international studies professor at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said Japan's decision was due to the "changing security dynamics within the region". China's defence budget this year stood at US$224 billion, a 7.2 per cent increase from the year before.

"I do not see this as a fundamental departure of international aid; rather, I see it as a continuation of the use of strategic partnerships to help build the security capabilities of like-minded countries," Nagy said.

Under existing partnerships, Japan had provided coastguard vessels and maritime domain awareness capabilities to various Southeast Asian countries including the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

While reliant on the United States for its military equipment, Japan's own defence industry is believed to be worth about US$23 billion, with 1,100 companies involved in manufacturing fighter jets and some 8,300 firms in constructing escort vessels, according to Japan's defence ministry.

However, private businesses are not attracted to the industry as the Self-Defence Forces is the only client whose orders "come in small lots", thereby ruling out mass production, an Asahi newspaper editorial this week has said.

Yamamoto said the Philippines was a natural choice for Japanese assistance, as among Southeast Asian countries, both had the closest security ties.

Apart from actively supporting the build-up of the Philippine Coast Guard, Tokyo and Manila also signed an agreement in February to allow Japanese troops to join training exercises to respond to natural disasters and humanitarian needs in the Philippines.

The agreement has been seen as a stepping stone towards a pact that would allow the deployment of military units on each other's territory and even lead to similar deals between Japan and other Southeast Asian nations.

As for Fiji, Nagy said it was seen as "a bellwether or a canary in the coal mine in terms of the direction that it moves" in terms of its alignment on issues relating to mainland China and Taiwan.

Last year, Fiji became the first Pacific island nation to join the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, US President Joe Biden's signature economic framework to counter growing Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific.

In January, Suva ended a 2011 security agreement with China which had allowed Fijian police officers to train in China and Chinese officers to work in Fiji for up to six months at a time.

It also allowed Taiwan to change the name of its representative office in Fiji to the Trade Mission of the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the Republic of Fiji, meaning Taiwanese envoys can again enjoy full diplomatic privileges in the country.

Joshua Bernard Espena, resident fellow at the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, noted that Fiji had also expressed concern after China and the Solomon Islands last year signed a security agreement - which might leave the door open for Beijing to send military forces to the region - and condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine.

"In the world of interdependence, a small country like Fiji is a natural partner for Japan to work with based on its Indo-Pacific vision of respect for democratic ideals and international law," Espena said.

Tokyo was aware of the geostrategic value of the Philippines and Fiji, with both part of the Island Chain Strategy, Espena said.

Conceived in 1951 by former US secretary of state John Foster Dulles, the strategy was born out of the need to deter the maritime ambitions of the then Soviet Union and China by restricting their sea access with a string of naval bases in the western Pacific region.

The first chain includes the Kuril Islands, the main Japanese archipelago, Okinawa, the northern part of the Philippines, the Malay Peninsula and Taiwan, while the second consists of the islands of Japan stretching to Guam and the islands of Micronesia.

Additional reporting by Reuters

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.