New 'Squad' bloc could allow Philippines to 'borrow strength' of Australia, Japan, US to counter China

An emerging regional bloc linking Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States is expected to evolve into a more permanent or institutionalised grouping.

But for now, analysts say the informal alliance will allow Manila to "borrow the strength" of the other three nations in countering challenges from China, and in elevating the Philippines' status beyond that of a "junior partner".

US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin last week met counterparts from Australia, Japan and the Philippines as Washington sought to deepen ties within the rising regional group that Pentagon officials had privately nicknamed the "Squad", according to a Bloomberg report.

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The quadrilateral marks the latest regional partnership Washington has forged to counter Beijing's growing assertiveness in the region.

There is also the Quad comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US, and Aukus, a defence pact among Australia, the United Kingdom and the US.

Austin said the so-called Squad would undertake more maritime exercises and provide greater security help to the Philippines, which in recent months had been caught up in several naval skirmishes with Chinese vessels in the South China Sea.

He added that Washington had made clear to all nations, including China, that Beijing's recent behaviour in the disputed waterway was "irresponsible" and "disregards international law".

Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy, said it would be unsurprising if the Squad grouping turned into a more institutionalised bloc like the Quad.

"Squad countries are strong maritime nations, having keen commercial interests in the conflicting South China Sea to the East China Sea.

"Having official backing among the navies of these four countries makes sense, and hence eventually the Squad might emerge as a more institutionalised or formalised grouping," Panda said.

Noting the Squad would complement the Quad, Panda said the two groupings would lead to a more "versatile power distribution" where "powers and responsibilities are shared".

"There is an opportunity and chance for the Squad and the Quad to coexist," Panda said.

Yoichiro Sato, professor of Asia-Pacific Studies at Japan's Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, said "Manila will remain focused on borrowing the strength of the other three countries in deterring China's challenges" against its maritime claims in the South China Sea.

"This includes security help to the Philippines in terms of both hardware and human resource training," Sato said, adding that integrating the Philippines into the Quad to turn it into a five-member grouping did not materialise as none of the five countries wanted to diminish the Quad's coherence.

"The two overlapping four-party arrangements allow more cohesion within each group, allowing both India and the Philippines to work within their comfort levels" with Australia, Japan and the US, Sato added.

Joshua Espena, vice-president of the International Development and Security Cooperation think tank in Manila, said the Squad grouping signalled Washington's continued resolve in integrating all its Indo-Pacific allies to contain China's "excessive claims in the region".

"The inclusion of the Philippines implies that Manila is no longer viewed as a junior partner," he noted, but rather as a respected stakeholder and a sign of greater "inclusivity and respect for those willing to fight for a rules-based international order".

Squad will not only offer Manila greater "diplomatic assurances" and help its capability-building, it will also ensure greater interoperability between the Philippines and its allies, according to Espena.

China's state tabloid the Global Times on Sunday said the Squad grouping would pose "a more targeted challenge" to Beijing as it allowed the US to "manage the security situation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait".

Citing Chinese analysts, the daily also warned that the Philippines had become increasingly "manipulated by the US, is losing its autonomy and becoming a pawn of the US in the region".

Espena said China had forced the Philippines to form minilateral arrangements due to its aggression and flouting of international laws. "China must treat the Philippines not as a US pawn, but as a sovereign state that has legitimate security concerns over its maritime claims."

Writing on social media X, Derek Grossman, senior defence analyst at non-profit research organisation Rand, said "India will only go so far in helping Quad to counter China in the South China Sea" as New Delhi was more focused on its own neighbourhood.

"Hence, the US now has an alternate Quad," Grossman wrote.

Ian Hall, international relations professor at Australia's Griffith University, said India did not currently have the capacity to project power and sustain military deployments in the South China Sea.

"Delhi's primary focus is to the north, on the land border with China, and also in the Indian Ocean, including the Malacca Strait," Hall said.

Relations between India and China have worsened in recent years following a bitter military stand-off along the Himalayan border, with Delhi reportedly repositioning 10,000 soldiers from its western front to its border with China earlier this year.

Seen as a highly strategic waterway for both countries, the Indian Ocean Region has also emerged as a battlefield between the two Asian giants, with Beijing signing a new security agreement with the Maldives and sending a military delegation to three regional countries in March.

Sato said "India is not left out" as it had forged ties with Manila as seen in the recent sales of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines, noting that India-Philippines ties were likely to progress in non-traditional security areas such as cybersecurity, anti-piracy, and anti-terrorism.

Last month, India delivered its first batch of supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines under a US$375 million deal signed in 2022. Reports indicate Manila intends to deploy the weapons along the country's coast amid rising tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea.

Panda said India's significance as a maritime nation and a stakeholder on relevant issues should not be overlooked, referring to Delhi's military exercises and training programmes with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

"India's commercial and maritime interest in Southeast Asia makes it an indispensable coordinating partner for all the Squad countries," he added.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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