Russia's Vladimir Putin 'giving two fingers to Japan' with pledged trip to disputed Kuril Islands

Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised to pay a visit to islands off northern Japan that were seized by Soviet forces in the closing days of World War II but are still claimed by Tokyo, in what analysts see as a calculated snub to Japan.

In a town hall meeting in the Khabarovsk region that was broadcast on state television on Thursday, Putin responded to a question about visiting the Kuril Islands, which are known in Japan as the Northern Territories.

"I have heard that [the Kuril Islands] are interesting, but unfortunately I have never been there," Putin said. "So I will definitely go."

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Replying to another query about the possible development of the travel sector on the islands, the Russian leader said it would be the "right direction". One potential area of development would be the modernisation of the airport on Kunashiri Island, he said.

The islands of Kunashiri, Shikotan, Etorofu and the Habomai islets were controlled by Japan in 1945, and were home to communities of farmers and fishermen. Virtually all of them were expelled after Soviet forces landed on August 18, three days after Japan had surrendered to end the war.

"It was only a few months ago when [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov said the dispute with Japan was over and that sovereignty was 'no longer negotiable', so this looks to me as if Putin is reaffirming that position," Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.

"But in doing so, he is also obviously giving two fingers to Japan," he added. "I do not believe a visit to the islands by Putin will make the relationship any worse than it is right now, but we will have to watch what he does if and when he does travel to the island.

"If Putin goes there and repeats that the islands are Russian territory, then that is not very different from what has been said before," he said. "But it would be more significant if he proposes or orders specific development of the islands."

Announcing the construction of major port, airport or military facilities on the island would be a shift in the status quo in the region, as would investment in infrastructure to enhance the economic viability of the region.

"I also see Putin's comments as designed to appeal to his domestic audience," Hinata-Yamaguchi said. "This shows the Russian people that they are not backing down in the West, and that they are equally able to stand up when they are confronted in the Pacific."

James Brown, a professor of international relations who specialises in Japan-Russia affairs at the Tokyo campus of Temple University, says Putin's plan to visit the disputed islands was "revenge" against Japan.

"Since the start of the invasion, Japan has imposed a number of sanctions and been strong in its support for Ukraine," he said. "Russia has been looking for ways to hit back, which they have done by listing Japan as an 'unfriendly state', ending peace treaty talks and banning imports of Japanese seafood.

"But each time that Japan adds some support for Ukraine, Russia feels it has to respond and find ways to annoy Japan," he said, pointing out that Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa has been in Ukraine this week, where she met President Volodymyr Zelensky and reiterated Tokyo's support.

"Russia's message is that for anything that Japan does, there will be consequences," Brown said.

On-off talks took place between Russian and Japanese officials over the sovereignty of the islands for decades before the invasion of Ukraine, but no solution was forthcoming. It did appear at times as if Japan was making progress in its campaign to regain control of the islands, notably when then-prime minister Shinzo Abe met Putin in Moscow in 2013 to discuss the issue, but no agreement could be reached.

As a consequence, the two countries have never signed a peace treaty to formally end the war.

The likelihood of progress on the issue has been dramatically dimmed by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with Tokyo antagonising Moscow with its support for Ukraine and the international coalition that is supporting Kyiv.

In March 2022, Russia announced it would withdraw from talks on a peace treaty and joint economic development of the islands in retaliation for Japanese sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine. In the same month, Russia conducted military exercises involving an estimated 3,000 troops in the islands.

As the war has dragged on and Japan has imposed additional sanctions, the disputed territory has been the subject of tit-for-tat actions.

Japan in 2022 redesignated the islands as being under "illegal occupation", and in June the foreign ministry in Moscow announced it would revoke an agreement that permitted Japanese fishermen to operate in waters around the islands. Moscow has also cancelled an agreement that granted visas to the Japanese descendants of former residents who wished to return to tend their ancestors' graves.

In March last year, Russia deployed Bastion coastal defence missile systems to Paramushir, an island in the northern part of the chain. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said the deployment was designed to improve regional security to counter US efforts to "contain" Russia.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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