Rarely can the aphorism “pessimists sound smart, optimists make money” have been truer than in 2023. The Eeyores came into the year insisting that rising interest rates would cause a recession in the developed world, corporate profits would be hit, stockmarkets would slump and the only safe haven would be in government bonds. Yet recession was averted, earnings dipped but returned to growth, equities, especially in the US, performed well and government bond yields continued to rise (reflecting falling prices).
The pessimists argue that most of the market’s gain was attributable
