South Korea on alert for armed clashes, nuclear test as Kim Jong-un threatens 'major ripple'

In a rare departure from its usual reticence, Seoul's spy agency has revealed intelligence that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un aims to shock South Koreans early next year, with what analysts warn may be a possible nuclear test or armed clashes.

Kim has instructed his close aides to come up with measures to "create a major ripple in the South" ahead of crucial parliamentary elections due to be held in April, according to a press statement released by the National Intelligence Service (NIS) late on Thursday.

The instruction came shortly after the North on December 18 launched a Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile that had the range to hit anywhere in the United States. Pyongyang said the missile launch was in response to a US-led show of force it characterised as a "war" move, which included the arrival of an aircraft carrier and nuclear-powered submarine in South Korea.

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"It is highly likely that North Korea may carry out military and cyber provocations in 2024, the year of the general election in South Korea and the presidential election in the United States," the NIS said.

The North's propaganda agencies have not previously reported on Kim's latest direction.

South Korea's conservative JoongAng Daily said the report's disclosure, a rare departure from standard NIS operating procedures, was apparently aimed at undermining the North's provocations.

The validity of the NIS report is supported by Pyongyang's reinstatement of three key military figures in recent months.

Among them is Kim Yong-chol, a former spy chief who was reportedly censured in 2019 following the collapse of summit talks in Hanoi with then-US President Donald Trump.

Kim, who returned as an adviser to the North's spy agency in June, has been accused of orchestrating the sinking of the Cheonan in 2010, leading to the deaths of 46 South Korean sailors, and the shelling of the South's Yeonpyeong Island that same year, which killed four civilians.

Other former military chiefs brought back into the fold include Ri Yong-gil and Pak Jong-chon, who have collectively been blamed for ordering the placement of "wooden-box" landmines along the border that maimed two South Korean soldiers in 2015.

Ri became chief of the North Korean army's general staff for a third time in August, and Pak was appointed head of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers' Party that same month.

Military reshuffles are common in North Korea, with some officials later reappearing in different positions while others disappear from view entirely.

Lim Eul-chul, a North Korea specialist at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in South Korea, said Pyongyang wanted to resume nuclear testing to determine the yields of the various weapons it has produced since its last test in 2017.

"It doesn't make any sense that the North continues producing nuclear weapons but postpones their tests indefinitely," Lim told This Week in Asia.

But such a test was unlikely to deliver much of a political shock to the South in an election year, he said, as many had become inured to the North's nuclear tests given that it had carried out six since 2006.

Military clashes along tense land and sea borders, similar to the shelling of Yeonpyeong and sinking of the Cheonan, would have a greater impact on South Koreans who fear that accidental clashes could spread to a larger armed conflict amid rising tensions, Lim said.

"The North, however, knows well that military acts ahead of the April parliamentary elections would only benefit the conservatives", who are traditionally associated with emphasising national security and defence, he added.

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the North Korean research division of the Korea Institute for National Unification think tank in Seoul, said the North was "not so desperate" to conduct further nuclear tests - and risk international repercussions - as it had accumulated considerable data from its previous experiments.

"North Korea is concerned that a fresh nuclear test would undermine its booming relations with Russia and undercut China's implicit support for its confrontational stance against the United States," Hong said.

"It would rather wait until the end of the US presidential election in November next year to see how the next US administration decides on policies toward Pyongyang before it attempts to make use of a fresh nuclear test as a message to Washington."

In the meantime, he said Pyongyang was more likely to continue testing its arsenal of missiles that could pose threats to US military facilities in the Pacific.

The NIS statement came after Kim Jong-un reportedly called this week for the military to accelerate war preparations as he set forth tasks for it and the munitions industry, as well as the North's nuclear weapons and civil defence sectors.

Hong said the security situation on the Korean peninsula had become extremely dangerous due to what he called "unprecedented" US-led confrontational moves against North Korea.

The North's official Korean Central News Agency said Kim had vowed to "expand and develop the relations of strategic cooperation with the anti-imperialist independent countries and dynamically wage the anti-imperialist joint action and struggle on an international scale".

Kim has been emphasising the need to step up war preparations for many months at key military and party meetings, though analysts say this has been aimed more at boosting production.

"This is closely related with North Korea's efforts to increase war supplies for export to other countries including Russia and for its own needs, rather than to step up preparations to start a war against the South," Hong said.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said the North was likely to refrain from a seventh nuclear test in deference to China, which has consistently criticised previous tests, as the two allies are set to celebrate the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties next year.

"The North will further strengthen military ties with Russia, while bolstering economic and ideological alliances with China [in 2024]," Yang said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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