Pacific nations at biggest risk of rising sea levels condemn Cop28 deal: 'disaster for humankind'

Pacific Islanders have railed at the "catastrophic" implications of the failure of world leaders at Cop28 to agree a hard stop to the use of fossil fuels, and are now turning inward for solutions in a desperate bid to protect communities at extreme risk of vanishing beneath the sea.

There are 2.3 million people across the Pacific nations, keepers of old, unique cultures facing the prospect of vanishing beneath the waves as temperatures rise, with nations like Kiribati and Tuvalu forecast to become ocean territory by the end of this century.

"Three degrees is catastrophic for small islands," Palau President Surangel Whipps Jnr told This Week in Asia, referencing the forecast temperature rise by 2100 that will see ocean levels surge.

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"Tuvalu, Marshall Islands, Kiribati, none of their islands are above two metres. In Palau, we have some islands that are above two metres, but we also have islands that are below. The impact will be nothing less than a disaster for humankind," he added.

"The reality is those islands have chiefs, languages, history and culture. We talk about the turtles disappearing, but what about that culture, what about that history disappearing?"

The United Nations Climate Conference, also known as Cop28 and hosted in Dubai, adopted the proposed text for a final climate deal that acknowledges for the first time the need for "transitioning away from fossil fuels" and "accelerating action in this critical decade" to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

But crucially, it did not set a deadline for ending the world's dependence on the worst polluting energy sources - with oil producing nations driving a softening of language away from ending fossil fuel use.

"We do not see any commitment to peak emissions by 2025," Samoa's Anne Rasmussen, lead negotiator for Alliance of Small Island States that represents 39 countries, told the forum.

"We reference the science throughout the text ... but then we refrain from an agreement to take the relevant action to act in line with what the science says we have to do."

The stakes could not be higher, says Palau resident Bernie Ngiralmau, explaining her country already faces, "saltwater intrusion and inundation in our taro patches; coastlines that are being eroded away and homes being flooded twice monthly due to sea level rise, among many others".

Kiribati, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu are among the most vulnerable nations to be nearly entirely inundated, according to the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, an organisation that maps the world's most climate vulnerable areas.

"What feels like a small difference to the rest of the world is magnified in the Pacific Islands," said Ginger Cruz, professor of US foreign policy at the University of Guam. "Inches from extinction are some of the most beautiful places and cultures, which are being held hostage by global economic calculations."

Increased tropical cyclones from the Western Pacific are predicted to also unleash massive damage on infrastructure, as happened to Vanuatu with back-to-back cyclones Judy and Kevin, which pummelled the islands earlier this year.

At Cop28, there was a breakthrough recognition of the cost facing the world's most vulnerable to the climate crisis with commitments of US$225 million to help 30 per cent of the Pacific, with the Global Environment Facility putting up US$125 million and the Bezos Earth Fund pledging US$100 million for designing and paying for Marine Protected Areas.

This is part of the "Unlocking Blue Pacific Prosperity" policy supported by Pacific 16-island states, but many think it's just not enough.

While pledges to triple renewable energy and transition away from fossil fuels are to be welcomed, experts say it is far too little to head off calamity.

"The commitments do not ensure climate action and finances will be sufficient to meet Pacific islands' needs," said Professor Meg Keen, director of the Pacific Islands Program at Australia's Lowy Institute.

"It is not whether or not it is a 'setback', the key point is, it is not an adequate step forward. The Pacific nations had hoped from much more with fewer loopholes to dodge climate action."

As COP president Sultan Al-Jaber received hugs, handshakes and lauded the achievement of Cop28 in Dubai, Pacific nations' representatives said their views had not been carried into the end document.

The Marshall Islands' delegation led by John Silk railed at the shortcomings of COP as oil producing nations appeared to spike ambition for declaring a phase down or end date to fossil fuels.

"I came here to build a canoe together ... We have built a canoe with a weak and leaky hull, full of holes," Silk said. "Yet we have to put it in the water because we have no other option."

Experts say the disappointing outcome may soon have a domino effect on societies and economies in the Pacific - with blowback for geopolitics in a region much coveted for its strategic waterways and resources.

"Many of these countries are already in debt distress and another significant climatic event will add to economic strains and instability," said Keen of the Lowly Institute.

"Climate migration is already happening and as people move, this can fragment communities and add to social tensions in countries with scarce land and resources."

Pacific Islanders are already in survival mode, coming up with their own ways to manage a crisis that outsize them.

"We know with the heat it's going to kill corals through coral bleaching," Whipps Jnr noted of Palau. "We know we are going to lose 40 per cent of our fish stock."

"We've banned deep sea mining because ocean protection is important to us. At the same time, we want to develop aquaculture systems that we can leverage and take pressure off the reefs and be healthy and vibrant and get more of our fish resources from aquaculture and fish farms."

For islanders like Anil Prasad, a small tour operator with two cars in Fiji, peoples of the Pacific face both the worst of the climate crisis - and are being left behind in the race to a renewable future.

"We want to get away from petrol and have more electric vehicles, but there are nearly no charging stations," he said.

"What if you run out of power in the middle of the jungle? We need to get more charging stations, and is this being done now from all this?"

Whipps Jnr wants higher pressure on political will. "In Covid-19, we shut down borders, we locked people in their homes, we took every effort to make sure that disease wouldn't spread," he said.

"The effort and the amount spent by governments around the world to get through Covic-19 was incredible. We need that kind of initiative when it comes to climate change."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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