Here’s what will happen next — maybe — as Jim Jordan pushes to become House speaker

It’s been almost two weeks since the House Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy and they have yet to elect a new leader of the chamber.

Following the failure of Majority Leader Steve Scalise to get the support needed from his own party, it’s now up to the man who came up short against Mr Scalise for the nomination – Rep Jim Jordan – to make an attempt.

The House GOP remains divided, dysfunctional and disorganised, with members telling reporters over the weekend that the pressure is mounting on holdouts to support Mr Jordan.

Mr Jordan, the chair of the Judiciary Committee, is moving towards a vote on the floor of the House on Tuesday (17 October).

Mr Jordan told CNN that he’s planning to go to the floor of the House for a speaker vote at 12pm ET on Tuesday, regardless if he has the votes he needs or not.

Mr Jordan said previously that he didn’t want to go to the floor before securing the support of 217 Republicans.

“We’ll go the floor tomorrow,” he told Manu Raju.

“That’s how our great system works. And we will go to the floor tomorrow. It’s not about pressuring anybody just about we got to have a speaker. You can’t open the House and do the work of the American people and help our dearest and closest friend Israel,” he added.

“We set it for 12pm. I feel good about it,” he said.

When Mr Jordan was asked if he would move on to a second vote if he fails on the first, he simply said: “We are going to elect a speaker tomorrow.”

“If you don’t have a speaker, so we get a speaker, we get the House open and we get to work on the resolution and supplemental for Israel,” he told the network. “And we get back to work for the American people. That’s what I’ve committed to doing.”

When asked about his earlier comments on only going to the floor after having secured 217 votes, Mr Jordan said, “I do think that’s, that’s ideal, but … I don’t know if there’s any way to ever get that in the room. I would love that. But I think the only way to do this is the way the Founders intended”.

While Mr Jordan and his allies have shrunk the number of members set to vote against him, he remains below the threshold of 217 votes.

The Ohio Republican won a nomination vote on Friday (13 October), receiving 124 votes against 81 for Rep Austin Scott, who put his name in for contention while noting he didn’t actually want to be speaker. Observers noted that the support for Mr Scott revealed the substantial antipathy towards Mr Jordan within the conference.

Mr McCarthy, the ex-speaker, pushed for a second vote on Mr Jordan’s nomination, during which 152 members voted yes and 55 said no.

While Mr Jordan’s team says they have minimised that number over the weekend, the number of members opposed to his speakership was estimated to be in the double digits on Monday morning, according to Punchbowl News.

By Monday afternoon, it was becoming increasingly clear that the tide was turning. The moderates were beginning to cave.

Accordingly, Republicans supporting Mr Jordan pushed to bring the vote to the floor as a way to put public pressure on the holdouts. Several votes may take place depending on what the opposition looks like on Tuesday. Those backing Mr Jordan have said that the backlash from the Trump wing of the GOP will be fierce against those blocking the Ohioan.

A staff member from the Hannity programme on Fox News wrote an email to holdouts asking why they’re not backing Mr Jordan, but the email is reportedly having the opposite effect, with its pressuring tone possibly pushing members away from the Judiciary chair, according to Axios.

Mr Jordan is also trying to push the House GOP closer to a presidential candidate – former White House incumbent Donald Trump – in the middle of a primary with those not backing him likely supporting other contenders.

Several members of the GOP establishment were working to take down Mr Jordan’s speaker bid before the lay of the land began to turn.

Jordan looking more and more likely to be able to get across the line

A number of Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee as well as the Appropriations Committee were reported to be set to vote against Mr Jordan indefinitely, according to Punchbowl News, as they were sceptical of his beliefs and record on government and defence funding.

But Mr Jordan is now looking more and more likely to be able to get across the line and become speaker.

A number of holdouts, such as Reps Mike Rogers, Ken Calvert, and Anne Wagner, have now announced that following conversations with Mr Jordan, they are now set to back his bid for speaker.

Notably, Mr Calvert won reelection in California’s 41st district last year with 52.3 per cent of the vote and Ms Wagner is reported to have personal issues with Mr Jordan.

Rep Mike Lawler of New York represents a district won by President Joe Biden in 2020 and pushed hard for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy to be reinstated, but in a recording obtained by Politico, he can be heard telling a constituent on Sunday that he would back Mr Jordan if he had the votes.

Mr Rogers, the chair of the Armed Services Committee, and Mr Calvert, who’s on the appropriations panel, both suggested that they had gotten assurances from Mr Jordan on issues such as defence and government funding as well as the farm bill.

But funding for Ukraine in the war against Russia wasn’t mentioned, and it’s likely to be axed in a chamber headed by Mr Jordan.

There were reportedly about 10 Republicans who were steadfastly against a Jordan speakership. This would have been enough to permanently block Mr Jordan as he can only lose four of the 221 Republicans in the chamber to reach the 217 votes he needs in the face of unified Democratic opposition. But the Republican holdouts were starting to vanish on Monday.

There were whispers that GOP rightwingers might have moved to employ an internal resolution to get rid of the entire Republican leadership in the House. There was also a suggestion that another internal speaker race be held, where the top candidate is nominated for speaker, the second becomes majority leader, and on it goes.

Some legislators also indicated that choosing a speaker by House resolution on a plurality vote could be an option.

But both of these plans are unlikely to come to fruition.

‘Moderates always cave. A tale as old as time’

GOP House members close to the leadership seem increasingly sure that Mr Jordan will win the speakership on Tuesday, telling The Washington Post that if Mr Jordan isn’t successful on the first ballot, he’s set to win on the second.

“Moderates always cave. A tale as old as time,” one member told the paper.

On 13 October, Sahil Kapur of NBC News noted that a GOP staffer said that he was sure that Mr Jordan would get the gavel.

“The people opposing him are moderates. Either he gets it or the moderates for the first time ever grow a spine,” the aide told NBC.

On Monday, Mr Kapur added: “Of note: today is World Spine Day.”

Florida Democrat Jared Moskowitz piled on the criticism of the backtracking GOP moderates,

“Jordan will win the speakership tomorrow. It may take multiple rounds. Moderates will cave. This was always the plan by the Freedom Caucus. It wasn’t just about removing McCarthy, but installing one of their own. Freedom Caucus played chess. The rest played checkers,” Mr Moskowitz said on X.

If Jordan fails, who’s up?

If Mr Jordan is unable to grasp the gavel, a number of Republicans have mentioned Louisiana Rep Mike Johnson as a possible next option. The vice chair of the Republican conference, 51, has been floated alongside Majority Whip Tom Emmer, 62, who has spent the last half-decade in the leadership, with most of his time going to chairing the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

While Mr Emmer has some backers on the right of the party, large parts of the Trump wing aren’t as supportive, Punchbowl News notes.

Mr McCarthy may start believing in an unlikely comeback if the speaker race doesn’t come to a resolution this week. This would require at least four of the eight members who voted against him to flip.

Many GOP members have told the press that their party is so divided that no candidate can get 217 votes from the party, meaning that votes from Democrats may be required to get over the line.

But there have been no major discussions between the parties and the Democrats would use their leverage to push for major concessions, and it’s unclear what a deal would look like.

Any member of the chamber could simply step onto the floor when the House opens and put forward a privileged resolution to strengthen and widen the powers of the temporary speaker, Rep Patrick McHenry of North Carolina. The McCarthy ally and famed gavel-slammer could also be elected as the permanent speaker.

The background

The fresh chaos emerged after the initial GOP nominee for speaker, Mr Scalise, declared on Thursday (12 October) that he had been unable to secure the support he needed to take the vote to the House floor.

“If you look at where our conference is, there’s still work to be done,” he said. “Our conference still has to come together. And it’s not there.”

“There are still some people that have their own agendas,” he added at the time. “And I was very clear we have to have everybody put their agendas on the side and focus on what this country needs this country is counting on us to come back together.”

The House GOP met on Friday (13 October), once again rejecting rules changes to how they elect their leaders. Among the proposed changes was a requirement that for a representative to be nominated for speaker, they must get 217 votes within the conference — the number of votes needed on the House floor — to be nominated, not a simple majority, according to CNN.

This would prevent Mr Scalise from having been nominated in the first place, as he received 113 votes to Mr Jordan’s 99 in the first internal vote.

Another proposed rule would kick people off committees if they don’t follow through and vote on the floor the way they said they would in the conference. But the party voted not to adopt the new rules, according to Politico.

‘I think he’s gonna have a math problem as well’

The focus is now back on Mr Jordan, but a number of his party colleagues initially believed that it was likely that he would end up failing in the same way.

“I think he’s gonna have a math problem as well,” Rep Mike Garcia told Axios last week, with Rep Greg Murphy adding that “it’s going to be hard” for the Ohio conservative to become speaker.

‘Any deal with Democrats would be to elect a Republican Speaker’

Rep Mike Lawler, a freshman New York Republican in a district won by President Joe Biden in 2020, appeared on Bloomberg TV last week saying that all the options must be exhausted before any Republican will turn to Democrats to possibly make a deal on who can become speaker.

“Any deal with Democrats would be to elect a Republican Speaker,” he said at the time amid suggestions that five Republicans could cross the aisle and back Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat.

Last week, members of both parties appeared to be opening up to a possible bipartisan deal to elect a speaker as a number of Republicans were and continue to be worried that no one can win a House vote with only GOP votes because of the division within their conference.

Rep Dan Kildee, a member of the Democratic leadership in the House, told Axios at the time that “there’s a sentiment building around [a bipartisan deal] among Democrats and Republicans”.

Meanwhile, Rep Maria Salazar, a member of the moderate Republican Governance Group, told the outlet that “we’re open to anything that’s reasonable,” adding that “bipartisanship is not a sin”.

And Rep Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican who has a reputation for making deals across the aisle, told Axios that “at this point, there are enough Republicans and Democrats saying we’ve got to get this fixed” while Rep Greg Landsman, an Ohio Democrat, said that he “absolutely” is seeing Republicans open up to a deal, saying: “Yes, I mean you’re seeing that.”

A group of 10 lawmakers including members of both parties were having initial discussions last week, according to a moderate GOP member.

“The question is who gets you to the largest minority of the majority,” the lawmaker told Axios. “Is it Don Bacon, who gets 20 [GOP] votes and 200 Democrats? Is it French Hill who gets 100 votes from Republicans? And the fewer Republicans, the more dangerous this is — not just politically, but structurally.”

The lawmaker, who requested to remain anonymous, noted that another issue is how many candidates have to fail before members are open to a deal.

“Kevin, Steve, Jordan, Emmer … how many losses do you have to have to make that an acceptable outcome?” the lawmaker asked.

While coalition government is foreign to Congress, even as it’s common in state legislatures and internationally, the House is “setting precedent every day,” the lawmaker added.

‘Whatever solution we have will be unprecedented’

Before Mr McCarthy’s ouster nearly two weeks ago, a speaker had never before been voted out.

“Whatever solution we have will be unprecedented,” the moderate GOP member said.

Mr Landsman said that Democrats want “institutional reforms, rules changes that allow for bipartisan votes ... not every couple months but every day”.

But heavy scepticism remained last week that any bipartisan deal would be possible after every single Democrat voted to boot Mr McCarthy.

Rep Blake Moore, a Utah Republican, told Axios that “there was no sense of [bipartisanship] when it was the motion to vacate a week and a half ago, so I don’t think anything is credible that could be realistic at the moment”.

Mr Bacon said before Mr Scalise announced his withdrawal that “at some point we’re going to be exasperated [and say], ‘Okay, this is not working’”.

Following Mr Scalise making his failure official, Mr Bacon was asked if Republicans were closer to that point.

“I think we are ... It’s going to be a sort of consensus opinion between a group of us,” he told Axios.