Japan 'cannot maintain' security with current capabilities amid China threat, defence chief warns

Japan's pacifist Self-Defence Forces (SDF) cannot adequately defend the country and need more resources to intercept attacks and carry out counterstrikes, a top military general has warned, amid domestic debate about the changing nature of the nation's security situation.

In an interview with the Nikkei newspaper on whether the SDF was able to defend Japan, Chief of the Joint Staff General Yoshihide Yoshida did not mince his words.

"We cannot maintain Japan's security with our current capabilities," he said on Tuesday. "That is why the decision was made to increase defence spending to 2 per cent of gross domestic product and to fundamentally strengthen our capabilities under the three key defence policy documents."

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The "jarring bluntness" of the general's comments raised eyebrows in political circles and prompted renewed public debate about the need for Japan to do significantly more to protect itself in the face of an increasingly assertive China, unpredictable and nuclear-armed North Korea, and Russia, which has taken exception to Tokyo's support for Ukraine.

Garren Mulloy, an international-relations professor specialising in security issues at Daito Bunka University in Saitama prefecture, welcomed Yoshida's comments as a necessary part of the debate about the future of the nation's defence, with Japan undergoing its biggest military build-up since its defeat at the end of World War II.

"A senior military official would usually equivocate when asked a question like this, so the jarring bluntness is refreshing," he said.

"I believe one of the reasons he gave this answer is because there are some politicians who see an increase in defence spending as unnecessary, and almost doubling the budget is a politically problematic issue."

Yoshida was pointedly saying that Japan's security was at stake if the politicians went back on their commitments, Mulloy said, despite arguments that no viable way of funding an annual defence budget of 6.82 trillion yen (US$46.6 billion) had been identified.

In the interview, Yoshida also tempered the bleak assessment of the SDF's problems, saying that weaknesses were being rectified, not least through a sharp increase in defence spending and the acquisition of advanced new weapons systems.

The general said he wanted the public to comprehend the security environment facing the nation, stating that Japan was "on the front lines" of the fight in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent unilateral changes to the status quo through the use of force, with the war in Ukraine a source of important lessons.

"Interest in our defence is growing, as the public sees the provocations by North Korea and China first-hand," Yoshida said. "Opinion polls show that many people support an increase in defence spending, as well as Japan acquiring counterstrike capabilities."

He added that Japan needed to develop an extended deterrence capability, "including through strategies involving US nuclear weapons".

"We need to gain counterstrike capabilities so that we can hit a target using missiles and bolster our ability to intercept attacks," he said. "We also need more underground shelters so that we can minimise damage from a missile attack and protect our people."

The general's comments coincide with the US government approving the potential sale to Japan of aircraft-mounted ground-attack missiles in a deal worth US$104 million. Tokyo has requested the purchase of 50 JASSM-ER missiles, which can be launched from the Air Self-Defence Force's F-15 and other fighter jets.

A new air-to-air missile - to be fitted to the next-generation fighter that Japan is developing with Britain and Italy - is also in the works, Kyodo News reported on Monday.

The new jet is scheduled to be deployed in 2035 and the new missile will be an improvement on the Meteor, which is already in service with European air forces.

Yoshida also underlined the importance of Japan's security arrangements with the United States and its expanding partnerships with other nations, including Australia and India. He also encouraged domestic companies to step up and develop cutting-edge equipment for Japan's armed forces.

He acknowledged, however, that arguably the biggest challenge facing the military is a shrinking population - the total number of Japanese shrank by some 750,000 last year - and relatively fewer young people in society.

"Recruitment and training are key challenges," he said. "We want to boost the percentage of women in our forces to 14 per cent by 2050 from the current 7 per cent to 8 per cent by increasing retention."

Mulloy agreed personnel was a big stumbling block. Women were "no longer a 'spare resource'" given manpower shortages across companies, he said, adding that the sexual harassment scandals involving the SDF might also deter more women from joining the armed forces.

The SDF's reputation has been enhanced in recent years, however, in large part due to its disaster recovery efforts in the aftermath of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that hit northeast Japan. The Ukraine war has also shown the need for Japan to have a viable defence.

"A decade ago, suggesting that Japan could get militarily involved in a situation surrounding Taiwan would have led to protests in the streets. Now that very same scenario is being suggested, and there is nothing," Mulloy said.

Japan has made plans for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, but has not openly said that the SDF would become directly involved in any conflict over the self-ruled island, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province to be brought under mainland control - by force if necessary.

China has in the past warned Japan to avoid referring to Taiwan in its long-term security plans. While most countries, including the US, do not recognise the island as an independent state, they oppose the use of force to change the status quo.

Washington has for decades pursued a policy of "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan, a deliberately vague stance towards defending the island should it face armed conflict with Beijing.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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