South Koreans' rejection of Japan's Fukushima water release plan puts Yoon's bid for improved Tokyo ties to the test

South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol is walking a political tightrope, analysts say, as he attempts to calm growing public hostility over Japan's plan to dump treated radioactive water into the sea while also trying to mend diplomatic ties with Tokyo.

Yoon has so far remained silent over the issue, which has become a political hot potato, but he will soon face the moment of truth when he meets Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of a Nato summit in Lithuania this week.

Kishida is expected to use the meeting - his second with Yoon in two months - to explain the safety of the planned release of the treated water from the wrecked Fukushima power plant and call for Seoul's cooperation.

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"The government's basic stance is that priority must be given to public health and safety. If Japan raises this issue, [Yoon's] remarks will be made in accordance with this principle," said a senior official in the presidential Blue House last week, asking not to be named.

Within weeks, Japan is set to start releasing more than a million tons of treated radioactive water currently being stored at the crippled nuclear power plant north of Tokyo. Much of it had been used to cool the reactors that were destroyed by a 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan has faced opposition to its plan, both at home and abroad, including from South Korea, despite assurances from the UN's nuclear agency that the water is safe after being filtered to remove most isotopes.

"Yoon is caught up in a political dilemma between public oppositions against the discharge and his policy of improving ties with Japan," said Yoon Sung-suk, a political-science professor at Chonnam University.

The issue had degenerated into a "political football" between rival parties ahead of next year's crucial National Assembly elections, he said.

Polls suggest eight out of 10 South Koreans oppose Japan's water release plan.

"Yoon will ask Prime Minister Kishida to take the South Korean people's concerns over the health impact into consideration before discharging the contaminated water, but Japan would accept this request as a tacit approval for the release," the academic said.

Professor Yoon and other analysts agreed the issue would remain a sticking point, as was the case with Seoul's 2008 decision to allow beef imports from the United States despite widespread public concern over mad cow disease.

Months-long protests erupted across the country at the time, creating a serious political crisis for the administration of Lee Myung-bak, who later apologised and suspended the relaxing of beef import rules.

On Monday, a group of 15 protesters, including 11 opposition MPs and four fishermen's representatives, flew to Tokyo for a three-day trip to take part in street marches and rallies outside the Japanese parliament and the prime minister's residence.

"Polluting the ocean constitutes a crime against humanity," fisherman Lee Taeyong, 53, told journalists before the flight.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Tuesday last week said its two-year review had found Japan's planned release of the water to be "consistent" with its safety standards, and that the treated water would have a "negligible" radiological impact on both people and the environment.

The South Korean government said it would "respect" the UN nuclear watchdog's safety review results.

"The IAEA report eases the political burden on Yoon at a time when his government has been seeking to assuage public safety concerns," said Choi Jin, head of the Institute of Presidential Leadership think tank.

It has done little to quell the anger, however. All 167 lawmakers of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea staged a 17-hour sit-in at parliament until early on Friday, the length of time the Fukushima nuclear reactors took to melt down.

Starting the sit-in, the party's leader Lee Jae-myung urged the government to call for a joint investigation with other countries in the Pacific to verify the safety of the discharge.

It's feared that the South Korean government's endorsement of the IAEA report will fuel pressure on Seoul from Japan to remove its import ban on Fukushima seafood.

But South Korea has ruled out the possibility of doing so.

"It is not a subject for discussion or review," Park Ku-yeon, the first deputy chief of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, told journalists on Monday, noting that the president had repeatedly stressed the ban would remain in effect.

Park Won-gon, a political-science professor at Ewha University, said President Yoon was unlikely to call for the water discharge to be delayed when he met Kishida, judging from the way Seoul had been handling the issue so far.

"And Seoul will stick to the import ban until all other countries in the region agree that Fukushima seafood is safe to consume," he said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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