What's next for Thailand after Move Forward Party's shock election win?

Thai voters delivered a withering verdict on nine years of Prayuth Chan-ocha and his military allies in Sunday's election - handing a shock win to the pro-reform Move Forward Party, which claimed more than 14 million votes.

The party - led by 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat - is now seeking to form a coalition government with fellow pro-democrats Pheu Thai and five other small parties.

But winning an election does not automatically lead to running the government in Thailand's straitjacketed democracy.

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Pita has seized the political momentum declaring himself to be "the next prime minister of Thailand" as he tries to drive his party to office. The senate, courts, military and a deeply conservative establishment stand in his way.

Here are some of the challenges that lie ahead, as well as some of the ramifications for Thailand - and its place in the world - if Move Forward is able to form a government:

Move Forward's change narrative incorporates demilitarisation, protecting personal and political freedoms, hacking back monopoly businesses and - crucially - reforming Section 112 of the Thai Criminal Code: the royal defamation law that shields the ultra-rich monarchy.

"Thai society has become ripe for change, and the Move Forward Party has taken the role of being the harbinger of change," said Napon Jatusripitak, a research fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

But the party's calls for reform of Section 112, which carries up to 15 years in prison for criticism of Thailand's apex institution, has crossed red lines for the conservative establishment.

Pita's coalition currently commands 310 of the lower house's 500 seats. That is well short of the 376-seat majority he needs in the 750-member bicameral parliament to form a government and be elected prime minister.

The senate - composed of 250 members hand-picked by the generals who seized power in 2014 - can move its votes behind another coalition, potentially headed by a minority party, including Prayuth's.

It can also refuse to endorse Pita as prime minister in a vote expected in two months time.

Snipes are already being exchanged between arch-royalist senators and Move Forward party members calling on the body to abide by the will of the people.

"Multiple senators have come out and said they're not willing to support Pita as prime minister due to Move Forward's stance on reform of the royal institution," said Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, an analyst of Thai politics and PhD student in political science at the University of Michigan.

"It's still unclear how Pita can overcome this challenge," he added, saying that if the Move Forward leader does not have enough seats, that might open an opportunity for another party like Pheu Thai to form an alternative coalition.

The stance on Section 112 taken by Pita's party also jars with potential coalition partners Bhumjaithai and the Democrat Party, whose seats could kick it over the 376 majority marker.

"The senate is only the first of many problems," Napon said. "I think the more foreboding obstacle will be the potential response by stakeholders of Thailand's conservative status quo."

Among the arsenal of legal bodies available to the establishment is the Election Commission.

It has two months to ratify the vote, a gap which could see candidates disqualified and the balance of power tipped in one direction or another.

In 2019's election, the Future Forward Party, the previous incarnation of Move Forward, secured the third-highest number of seats. But the party was subsequently dissolved and its core leaders banned from politics for a decade.

Pita already has a similar legal complaint hanging over his head. Preemptively levelled with the Election Commission by a conservative lawmaker before the polls, it questions his ownership of shares in a now-defunct media broadcaster owned by his late father. Stakes in media companies are outlawed for Thai politicians and it could result in a ban.

And then there is the prospect of a coup - in a kingdom that has seen a dozen military power grabs in the last century. But experts say the preconditions would need to be right: protests and prolonged instability.

"There is always the possibility but I don't think another coup would be a wise move for the old regime," said Boonwara Sumano, senior research fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute.

Wiping out the public vote this time may take Thailand into the unknown.

"Endorsing any kind of intervention that goes against the will of the people would undermine the legacy of Thailand's conservative institutions, including the military and the monarchy," Napon said.

"So the best way is to let the democratic process go forward."

Move Forward has vowed to boost wages and skills, and pledged to tackle Thailand's monopoly culture - opening up the economy to small and medium-sized enterprises that drive innovation and add higher-value jobs to the global supply chain.

But the party's economic platform has elicited mixed reactions from businesses and investors, according to Jay Harriman, a senior director at strategic adviser consultancy BowerGroupAsia.

"In the short term, Move Forward's policies could mean higher costs from a rising minimum wage and tighter regulations," he said.

"But over the longer term, the economy could end up on better footing due to the party's reforms to education and opening up of protected industries that would improve competition and innovation."

A Move Forward government could also bring a cleaner, more productive business environment, Harriman added, with less corruption, neater procurement and better market-access rules.

Pita says Thailand under Prayuth has been pliant in its diplomacy, favouring China on all major global issues and leaving a strategic Southeast Asian nation devoid of an active foreign policy.

He promises to craft an 'a la carte' - rather than 'set menu' - approach to foreign policy, deciding what works best for Thailand as well as what meets global ethical norms.

"If that means calling out the US, or calling out China, we will do that," he told This Week in Asia last month.

Observers say any Move Forward government is likely to tack towards Western principled stances on issues such as the war in Ukraine, and present a Thailand that's more willing to take a leading role on the crisis in neighbouring Myanmar.

"Thailand's orientation would definitely change under a government led by Move Forward," said expert Ken Mathis Lohatepanont.

"It's probably going to be more vocal on issues of democracy, human rights, and the rules-based international order."

Pita has vowed to establish a humanitarian corridor with Myanmar, while the junta there would have to contend with losing its long-time friends and peers from the Thai government, potentially galvanising peace talks.

Additional reporting by AFP

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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