Thailand election 2023: Move Forward, Pheu Thai bullish on bringing country back to democracy, ousting army in tight vote

"The land is orange" is the hashtag accompanying the final days before Sunday's Thai election, a bullish reference to the colours and prospects of Move Forward, the party of the young, idealistic and angry, who hope to deliver a devastating verdict at the polls on a near decade of military rule.

"This is the moment, change is coming," said Rangsiman Rome, whom has relentlessly nagged, nibbled and humiliated the military-backed government as a Move Forward MP, with exposes of alleged corruption, nepotism and incompetence, later chopped up and devoured over social media by the party's fans.

Some of those followers are now sharing TikTok tips on what to wear when they vote on Sunday, and everything is orange: headbands, sunglasses, earrings and crop tops.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

Move Forward is polling second, but it is hoping to scoop in support from beyond its urban youth base with its radical calls for the army to be excised from power, dominant monopolies to be curbed and reform of the laws protecting the powerful monarchy from criticism.

Together with poll leading Pheu Thai, the rural-focused vehicle of the Shinawatra political dynasty which easily wins most seats in Thai elections, there is a strong likelihood that antimilitary parties will decimate the conservative vote in Sunday's poll.

But in the pernicious politics of Thailand, a majority does not automatically lead to government and, like most recent elections, analysts say risk and uncertainty - including the possibility of the entire poll being voided - will frame the days and weeks after the vote.

Move Forward's predecessor was dissolved soon after its breakout performance in a 2019 election, while previous incarnations of Pheu Thai have been abolished by courts which intervene on the side of the army-led conservative establishment.

Pheu Thai's last government was toppled by a 2014 coup by general Prayuth Chan-ocha who has been in power since.

"Maybe they [the army] can use their power to abolish the party or take down our prime ministers," said Rangsiman outside Friday's final rally. "But if that happens we have to continue and unite the people to bring Thailand back to democracy."

Thailand's youth, wearied by inequality, low graduate wages and a power structure which enforces deference to teachers, the military and royalty, are in Move Forward's camp.

Experts predict the party would do well to gain around 70 seats which could put it into a coalition government. Party insiders say they are eyeing 100 or more, with anywhere between 8-10 million votes showing it has the keys to the political future.

Pheu Thai, fronted by Paetongtarn, the daughter of billionaire ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra who was toppled in a 2006 coup, insists a "landslide" of the available 500 lower house seats for her party is the cleanest, quickest way to cut off the army's return.

"We hope it will be a big turnout tomorrow. People want change ... we want 310 seats [a landslide], the time is now for a new government," Paetongtarn told This Week in Asia on Saturday.

"May 14 will be a historic day where Thailand will change from a junta rule to a democratic rule," she earlier said at a Bangkok rally on Friday night.

For former Pheu Thai voter Nampu, this campaign season has given him the chance to listen to stump speeches by Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat - the fresh-faced 42-year-old Harvard graduate who wants to be prime minister and is lionised by his followers in TikTok videos and by fan boys and girls who interrupt rallies with a chorus of "Orange Loves Daddy."

"Pita is smart and knows the real heart of the problems here," the 56-year-old said, explaining Pheu Thai plays politics by older rules of patronage and upcountry loyalty to candidates not ideas. "My family is 14 people - they are all voting for Move Forward."

The Move Forward vote may be limited to the cities, relying on Pheu Thai to achieve a landslide upcountry to block off the chances of conservatives parties patching together a majority in parliament. Yet even in Pheu Thai's stronghold of Chiang Mai, the needle may be moving.

"All of us younger generations are with Move Forward. We want change. We want a new government," Chiang Mai voter Warantorn Wongpratang, 23, said.

But if Prayuth has his way that is not going to happen.

He is seeking a return to office, with a strong appeal to older, conservative royalists who are worried that Thailand's traditional values are being eroded and the monarchy - the apex institution - is at risk in the hands of a generation of young iconoclasts.

As Move Forward's Pita gave a speech emphasising on inequality, power and change, across Bangkok Prayuth showed a campaign video projecting an apocalyptic Thai future of broken values, disharmony and faithlessness.

Teary-eyed he said "we want the country to move ahead with confidence and strength," as the prime minister ended a campaign which has pegged him as the competent, honest steward of the country and keeper of true Thai values.

Prayuth leads the conservative parties and needs just 25 seats to be nominated as premier, vowing that he will "just go home" if he does not receive them on Sunday.

But the electoral system is carefully calibrated to give Thailand's military and its conservative allies a way back into power - even if its candidates fall short of a popular mandate. The country's 250-member Senate was hand-picked by Prayuth and his allies and there is an expectation they will get behind their patrons.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.