Japan and South Korea seek to set past aside with an eye on 'hostile' China, North Korea, Russia

Japan and South Korea look headed for more stable ties as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida prepares to visit Seoul for talks with President Yoon Suk-yeol next week, but efforts aimed at furthering detente between the neighbours are unlikely to stifle domestic criticism of their approach to historical differences, analysts said.

The planned talks come after the two countries held their first bilateral finance leaders' meeting in seven years on Tuesday, a sign relations between the two are thawing as they confront shared challenges from geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth.

Tokyo has commenced procedures to return South Korea to its "white list" of trading partners, removing red tape to make imports and exports easier. Kishida's trip is also expected to yield new agreements on microchips, high-capacity batteries and initiatives to limit climate change.

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The signs of a thaw, however, are unlikely to ease criticism of the leaders' efforts to rebuild ties, which deteriorated under previous South Korean president Moon Jae-in's administration. His government took a hard line on issues dating back to Japan's often brutal colonial rule of the Korean peninsula in the early decades of the last century, in particular labourers put to work for Japanese companies and "comfort women" who served in military brothels.

Opposition politicians and supporters of Koreans who suffered at the hands of the Japanese between 1910 and 1945 condemned Yoon's "submissive stance" when he visited Tokyo in March and confirmed that the South Korean government and companies would provide compensation to the former forced labourers. Yoon made it clear that Japanese firms could contribute but were not obliged to do so.

There remains simmering resentment towards Japan for what many South Koreans regard as its failure to offer a sincere apology for the past, but there is also recognition that with the growing security threats posed by North Korea, China and Russia, the two democracies would be better off working together rather than pulling in different directions.

"It is very important that Kishida makes this trip," said James Brown, an international-relations professor at the Tokyo campus of Temple University. "This is the most important foreign policy measure that he can take to ensure Japan's national security.

"If Japan can resolve its relations with South Korea, then all of a sudden it does not look quite so surrounded by hostile states," he added.

"I also see this as Japan rewarding Yoon, who took a large and controversial step in announcing his government's policy on compensating the former forced labourers. That earned him a lot of criticism at home, so it was right that both Japan and the US have shown their support for that difficult step."

The economic agreements and reinstatement of favoured trading partner status will go some way towards cushioning the criticism that Yoon will inevitably face at home and will be welcomed by export-oriented companies.

But regional security issues are the prime motivators for the ongoing moves towards a detente.

"It makes perfect geopolitical sense for the two countries to work together, and that has long been the case," Brown said. "In many ways, these two should be natural allies in a region that is dominated by authoritarian regimes and as the two closest security partners to the US. If it was not for historical issues, then the threats posed by China, North Korea and Russia would have brought them together much sooner."

Others, however, are less optimistic that bilateral ties are on the mend, suggesting that Kishida's visit to Seoul has an "ulterior motive" and that Yoon's obeisance will continue to cost him politically.

"Kishida is due to host the G7 summit in Hiroshima next month and he wants to use that event to obtain the agreement of the world's major powers for his government's plan to release contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean," said Yuji Hosaka, a professor of history and politics at Seoul's Sejong University.

"Kishida has also invited Yoon to the G7 meeting and I expect he will use his visit to Seoul to encourage Yoon to support the plan."

Those in South Korea hoping that Kishida would make a full and unequivocal apology for Japanese colonial rule during his visit were almost certain to be disappointed, Hosaka said.

Japan's cabinet in 2021 decided that the nation's official position was that colonial subjects were not "forced" into labour for Japanese companies, Hosaka pointed out, and that there would be no comments on historical issues that went beyond previous governments' formal positions.

Relations between ordinary Japanese and South Koreans were likely to improve over time, Hosaka said, with young people in particular keen to explore the cultural opportunities available in each other's nations. However, historical issues would continue to dog the governments' relationship and be the undoing of Yoon, he added.

Hosaka claimed that "more than 60 per cent of Korean people" were upset about how Yoon had acted towards Japan. "They believe he has been weak and failed to stand up to Japan," he said.

"Koreans are saying this cannot go on. Failure to stand up to Japan is going to make more Koreans turn against Yoon," he said, adding that a renewed backlash against the president could doom bilateral relations to scrape new lows in the years to come.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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