Japan visa changes could lead to residency for workers from Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam. But will they be welcome?

As ageing Japan seeks to add more foreign workers to boost its economy, observers have cautioned the government to weigh the risks and benefits of a dramatic surge of immigration.

Immigration bureau officials met a panel of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Monday - following discussions with industry and various arms of the government - to recommend a series of changes to visa rules that would allow more foreign nationals to enter Japan, stay longer and even permit some to eventually become eligible for permanent residency.

Under the terms of the "specified skilled worker" visa introduced in 2019, skilled foreign workers can find jobs in 12 sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries and manufacturing, for up to five years. Those with a background in shipbuilding, the construction sector and nursing care are eligible for visas that can be extended for longer terms.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The bureau is proposing the abolition of the five-year maximum limit, permitting workers to renew their visas repeatedly and, ultimately, apply for permanent residency.

That recommendation comes after the Japan International Cooperation Agency released a study in March 2022 indicating that if the government wants to meet its economic growth target for 2040, then the number of foreign workers would need to quadruple to 6.74 million.

If the LDP supports the proposal, which is being vigorously promoted by Japan's business community, it could be approved by the cabinet as early as June and go into effect next year.

With an increasing number of elderly people in Japanese society and fewer children being born, Japan is facing a demographic crisis as well as a potentially catastrophic shortage of labour.

The nation has resisted large-scale immigration to date - put off by reports of cultural misunderstandings and clashes between different groups in countries that have opened up to large numbers of migrants - but the shortage of working-age people has become critical.

"Right now, the shortage of skilled and capable workers is becoming a very serious problem in Japan and that is only going to become worse in the future," said Rui Yamaguchi, vice-senior researcher at the government-affiliated Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training.

"But if this proposal is to succeed in attracting sufficient numbers of foreign workers, then other parts of the visa must also be revised," he said, pointing to the present ban on workers bringing their families with them when they start a new job in Japan.

Japan generally has a positive reputation among people of many Southeast Asian nations who are seeking well-paid employment overseas, said Stephen Nagy, an international-relations professor at Tokyo's International Christian University.

"Workers have been coming to Japan from Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and elsewhere across the region for many years, with many already working in the construction, agriculture and nursing sectors," he said.

"These people are overwhelmingly young and willing to work in areas that a lot of Japanese no longer want to - the jobs that are considered to be the 'Three Ds' of dirty, difficult and dangerous."

While Japan undoubtedly needs more workers to support its ageing population, analysts believe that conservatives will continue to oppose immigration, insisting that increased automation and robots are the long-term solution.

Just as some Japanese have expressed exasperation at large numbers of foreign tourists, locals may very well take exception to foreigners settling in their communities and not adhering to all the unwritten rules of Japanese society.

"The cultural differences will certainly be quite extreme for many, so both sides are going to need to show some cultural flexibility," Nagy said. "It will be important for foreign workers to do their best to integrate into Japanese society and I'm sure there will be some differences of opinion, which will mean that retaining some of these foreign workers will be a challenge."

Easier access to working visas for Japan will also inevitably put pressure on other places in the region that rely on large amounts of foreign labour, notably Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and South Korea.

"If Japan wants to ensure it attracts enough good-quality workers from Southeast Asia, then the new system they are planning to introduce will have to be better than that available elsewhere," Nagy said.

"The conditions are going to have to be better, the salaries will have to be better and they are going to have to be reassured that they will be able to enjoy a reasonable work-life balance, which is not something that even Japanese workers always enjoy."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.