Commentary: China’s economy might not be headed toward either ascendancy or decline

Something about China encourages grandiose predictions. Just a few years ago, the U.S. Intelligence Community forecast China would emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic economically and politically stronger than the United States.

Now a popular view in Washington is that China will soon pass its economic and military peak, and the U.S will confront a declining power willing to take desperate measures, especially in the event of a confrontation over Taiwan. Beijing’s military exercises following Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s