China is building up its military. Can Indonesia step up to maintain regional security?

President Xi Jinping's speech at the 20th party congress in November provided a forecast of China's policy towards the Asia-Pacific region over the next five years: military build-up and foreign expansion.

Xi has expressed his determination to defend China's sovereignty, security and development interests. In 2017, he called for revolutionising the People's Liberation Army (PLA) into a world-class military by 2035. Last year, Xi said the PLA's transformation had to be accomplished by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in August 2029. Given the rapid development of China's military, especially the modernisation of its defence equipment, the goal looks to be in sight.

Its third aircraft carrier, Fujian, was launched on June 17 last year. The Chinese navy now has the same number of ships, if not more, than its US counterpart. A study published in September last year by US-based research institute the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimated that by 2030, China's naval strength would increase by 40 per cent.

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Despite the military build-up, Xi has sought to convince the world of his commitment to a peaceful environment, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. He shared a vision of a foreign policy aimed at upholding world peace and communities with a shared future, and the assurance that China's development would only be for peaceful purposes.

In contrast to previous speeches, however, the one he gave at the 20th congress was also underscored by a firmer emphasis against hegemony, Cold War mentality and unilateralism.

"China stands firmly against all forms of hegemonism and power politics, the Cold War mentality, interference in other countries' internal affairs, and double standards," Xi said.

Such commitments will certainly have an impact, both short- and long-term, on countries in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia. A more robust Chinese military presence will warrant special attention, bearing in mind that the South China Sea dispute, which involves China and several Southeast Asian countries, has not been resolved amid the coronavirus pandemic and heightened Sino-US tensions.

Although Xi emphasised peace and rejected the arbitrary use of force, Beijing's assertiveness in the South China Sea has grown.

Earlier this week, China's leading coastguard ship CCG 5901 - the world's largest such vessel - was roaming around Indonesia's Natuna Islands, near the South China Sea, according to the Marine Traffic ship-tracking website.

It was purportedly in response to Indonesia's development plans for the Tuna Block, an offshore gas field located in the South China Sea between Indonesia and Vietnam, which has a total estimated investment of US$3.07 billion up to the start of production.

There were also previous alleged incursions by Chinese vessels. In 2021 three Chinese coastguard ships attacked a Filipino logistics boat and Malaysia protested against the entry of Chinese ships into its territory.

China is also reported to have increased its militarisation of several islands in the disputed sea. Although Xi had in 2015 promised China would not militarise the islands, the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in March last year that China had the right to build defence facilities on territories it claims as its own.

As for Indonesia, its relationship with Beijing will be tested by China's increasing military power and Xi's commitment to defending his country's sovereignty and territories. This is closely related to China's nine-dash line.

Some of this line passes through parts of Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) which is located in waters near the Natuna Islands. Even though China's claim to a part of the waters known as the North Natuna Sea does not have a strong legal basis under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Indonesia still has to be vigilant against attempts to enforce such claims.

Coastguard ships and Chinese fishermen often harass Indonesia's fishing boats near its territory. In 2021, there were reports of several Chinese warships, including types of frigate and destroyer, in the Indonesian EEZ area in Natuna. Various Chinese vessels were also seen at the end of last year, when Beijing protested against offshore drilling in Indonesia's EEZ. The manoeuvres are certainly not in line with the spirit of anti-hegemony and the non-arbitrary use of force emphasised by Xi.

Increasing tensions in the Asia-Pacific region are likely to continue in the coming months, with Western countries trying to involve themselves in the South China Sea dispute to deter Chinese assertiveness.

Countries in the region, including Indonesia, will need to prepare themselves to face this twin threat of China's increasingly powerful military and the likelihood of them being dragged into potential tensions - or worse, unanticipated incidents at sea - between China and the United States and its allies.

Indonesia has already announced plans to allocate US$125 billion to modernise its military equipment. Nonetheless, some analysts believe that improvements in the quality and quantity of military personnel are still needed. Given the various incidents in the North Natuna part of Indonesia's EEZ, it's important to increase the presence and ability of both military and civil authorities to deal with incidents that are likely to continue recurring with greater frequency.

With Indonesia taking the chairmanship of Asean this year, it should be an opportunity for Jakarta to strengthen cooperation among member states, such as stepping up efforts to maintain regional security.

Indonesia has been attempting a multilateral option. In February last year, for example, it invited Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam to a meeting to discuss the South China Sea dispute. Such efforts need to incorporate improving maritime domain awareness, sharing best practices and pooling intelligence.

Beyond Asean, Indonesia can also boost its profile by increasing collaboration with the forces of friendly countries. Such security partnerships, including military drills with the US and France in the last two years, are the way forward to maintaining regional security while emphasising that Indonesia is a country adhering to a neutral, free and active foreign policy.

Over-reliance on China economically would make it difficult for Indonesia to have bargaining power, with the former becoming stronger militarily and increasingly assertive in Indonesian waters.

Indonesia should therefore expand its sphere of friendship, politically and economically, beyond its traditional partners. Recently, it bolstered military ties with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and could also look at other countries in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa for collaboration options.

With its profile rising after its successful hosting of last year's G20 summit, and its role as Asean chair this year, the timing is right for Indonesia to step up and play a key role in ensuring regional security.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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