Japan's foreign policy to be tested by China, Russia as non-permanent UN Security Council member

Japan's long-held ambition of reforming and expanding the United Nations Security Council looks set to be thwarted as it occupies a non-permanent seat over the next two years, though analysts said it would give Prime Minister Fumio Kishida the chance to "weigh in" on issues such as Taiwan.

In his New Year's address, Kishida outlined plans for Tokyo to take advantage of its new non-permanent UN Security Council seat - and its hosting of the G7 summit in May - to promote key foreign policy initiatives.

He said Tokyo would "reject attempts to change the status quo by force" and work to counter "nuclear threats", without specifying where from, as Japan "faces the most severe security situation" since the end of World War II.

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Kishida in his address castigated Russia for its attacks on Ukraine and accused Moscow of "attempting to break the international order" - an accusation Tokyo previously levelled at China for its actions in the Asia-Pacific region.

He also said Japan would continue to promote reform of the UN Security Council, which critics charge is effectively paralysed by a structure that grants veto power to one of the five permanent members: Russia, China, the US, Britain and France.

Japan took over one of the council's 10 non-permanent seats, held for two-year terms, on January 1. It was last on the council in 2016.

Akitoshi Miyashita, a professor of international relations at Tokyo International University, said Japan "faced opposition from China and Russia" when it last suggested enlarging the council to include itself, as well as other potential members such as India, Germany and a representative from the African Union.

"In the past, Japan was eager and willing to bring about reform of the Security Council so it could have a permanent seat, but that effort did not go well," he said.

Vetoes have effectively prevented the UN from taking concerted action against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, or North Korea's continued provocations. Pyongyang has launched more than 70 missiles in the past year.

Stephen Nagy, an associate professor of international relations at Tokyo's International Christian University, said it was "not realistic" for Kishida to expect dramatic reform of the Security Council at this point, although a seat at the table will enable Japan to highlight some of its policy positions.

"This will at least give Japan the ability to weigh in on the issues that are important to Kishida, such as reiterating the need for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, a rules-based order in the Asia-Pacific region and a world without nuclear weapons," he said.

Late on Tuesday, the White House announced that US President Joe Biden will host Kishida on January 13 "to further deepen ties between our governments, economies, and our people".

The two leaders will talk about ways to address climate change as well as discuss security issues around North Korea, China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the statement said, adding that Biden will renew his support for Japan's presidency of the G7 and its mandate as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Nagy expects Kishida to use this year's G7 summit in Hiroshima - his home constituency - to reiterate Japan's commitment to achieving a world without nuclear weapons and its need to bolster conventional defence capabilities in the face of growing regional security challenges.

"It's an opportunity to talk about Japan's new security posture but also reiterate that Tokyo is still wedded to its 'three non-nuclear principles'," he said, referring to the country's long-held commitment not to develop, deploy or permit the entry of nuclear weapons on Japanese territory.

Miyashita agreed that Kishida will use the Hiroshima summit to "appeal to a global audience that Japan is a pacifist nation", even though it recently doubled its military budget, and announced plans to acquire offensive weapons that can target other nations in a shift away from Tokyo's post-war pacifist constitution.

Miyashita also added that Kishida must be mindful not to portray Japan as a victim - as China will seize on any such suggestion.

"Any claim that Japan was a victim would be seen as an attempt to whitewash history and could badly backfire on Kishida".

Miyashita said he was pessimistic about the prime minister achieving many of his foreign policy ambitions in the year ahead, in part due to resistance from regional rivals but also as a result of fading public support at home because of soaring food and fuel prices, as well as mounting political challenges.

"He has effectively had to fire four cabinet members in a matter of weeks and as soon as the Diet reconvenes, I am sure he will come under strong criticism from the opposition parties who will demand that he justify his appointments," he said.

"He's going to be very busy taking care of the domestic mess that he finds himself in."

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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