Ex-Maldives leader Yameen's jail sentence could fan flames of his 'India Out' campaign

Former Maldives president Abdulla Yameen, who is campaigning on an anti-India platform for the 2023 election, has vowed to appeal against an 11-year jail term for corruption and money laundering, raising concerns his "India Out" movement may gain momentum at a pivotal time.

Yameen, the half-brother of former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, was sentenced on Sunday and fined US$5 million. He has bounced back from previous criminal convictions, notably a five-year sentence in 2019 for money laundering that was eventually overturned by the country's Supreme Court, allowing for his political renaissance.

The 63-year-old is poised to represent the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), which drifted closer to China after Yameen's 2013 election, in polls due by September next year. Maldives has a tumultuous recent political history and its Indian Ocean shipping lanes have become a new pinch point in India-China relations.

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The latest court decision has sparked worries that Yameen's supporters could step up their anti-India campaign in a show of force to defy what they describe as a politically motivated attempt to derail the rise of the PPM in election season.

"We reiterate our belief that this trial and verdict is a political witch-hunt against our presidential candidate ... and call for his immediate and unconditional release," the PPM said in a statement.

Yameen, who lost a re-election bid in 2018 to current President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, has drawn large crowds at rallies with his "India Out" campaign that has revitalised his PPM.

Security measures at the Indian High Commission in Maldives were tightened following a threat by a former state minister for finance, Abbas Adil Riza, to set the building ablaze, as he alleged that New Delhi had ordered an act of arson after former President Mohamed Nasheed's government was overthrown in 2012. But he did not comment on Yameen's sentence.

"Certainly, there is a significant section [in Maldives] who support Yameen," said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator.

"They might have lost the [2018] election, but that does not mean they do not have support. I would not be surprised if his supporters take to the streets."

But any mass protests were likely to be driven by the state of the country's economy - whose tourism dependent-economy has been ravaged by the pandemic - rather than anti-India sentiment alone.

"If they manage their economy well, then I don't think these protests will go out of control," Deshmukh said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has refrained from interfering in Maldivian domestic politics and focused on providing financial aid under a "Neighbourhood First" policy that aims to head off allegations of political meddling by New Delhi.

Last month, India provided US$100 million in aid to Maldives to help the island nation overcome challenges stemming from the collapse of tourism amid the pandemic.

Tourism earnings have started to pick up in recent months following the resumption of international flights, helping Maldives' economic recovery.

Yameen's sentence has brought India's role in Maldives affairs back into the spotlight.

"India's relationship with Yameen has not been particularly good. That is why it has been backing the governing party. Now that [Yameen] has been sentenced to jail, the situation has obviously taken a turn for the worse," said Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.

But he said the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party should be able to prevent any potential attacks on Indian facilities.

Joshi, who is also the author of a book titled Understanding the India-China Border: The Enduring Threat of War in High Himalaya, said the islands had become a new area of great power contest between China and India.

"Maldives is a very important neighbour for India because it is [situated] on the sea lanes opposite [southern Indian state of] Kerala," he said. "So if you are looking at defending India, you need to have a friendly government in Maldives."

Yameen wants to scrap defence deals signed with India, which he alleges has developed a major military presence across the archipelago.

The potential for a new geopolitical tussle adds jeopardy to a Beijing-Delhi relationship that is already perforated by flashpoints.

Indian and Chinese troops suffered minor injuries in a clash earlier this month at the border of eastern India's Arunachal Pradesh, the first such confrontation since a deadly engagement between the two neighbours in June 2020.

Maldives has traditionally been an ally of India and its strategic advantage has remained one of Delhi's foreign policy priorities. But the nation drifted rapidly towards Beijing after Yameen was elected as president in 2013, defeating Nasheed, the Maldivian Democratic Party leader.

Beijing has invested heavily in building infrastructure such as a China-Maldives friendship bridge that links the capital Male to another island, as well as mass public housing estates on reclaimed land.

Delhi welcomed Mohamed Solih's election win over Yameen in the 2018 presidential elections, interpreting it as a return to Maldives' "India First" policy. Indian companies have also embarked on ambitious infrastructure projects in the island nation.

However, a fresh point of worry for Delhi is a rumbling feud that has emerged between Solih and former president Nasheed, who is also parliament speaker, creating political uncertainty.

Earlier this month, Nasheed, who survived a 2021 bomb attack and remains a vocal critic of rising Islamism across the islands, reportedly accused Solih of removing members from the party who are less likely to vote for him in a coming primary to select a presidential candidate.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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