How to steer the US and China away from conflict? Asean showed us
"When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled." So goes the African proverb that has become a strategic cliche in Asian geopolitics in recent decades. This is especially true in Southeast Asia, where there are growing worries over Sino-US relations and the prospect of a full-blown cold war.
After all, the region was the site of great power conflict throughout the past century, most dramatically during the Cold War. Indochina, for instance, was a theatre of competition for not two, but three great powers throughout the 1970s and 1980s, namely the United States, Soviet Union and Maoist China.
But far from ending up as trampled grass, Southeast Asian nations have displayed tremendous strategic proactivity over the past year. Led by Asean members such as Indonesia and Singapore, regional states nudged the two major powers towards a desperately needed detente. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations also made clear that Russia cannot count on its support in the Ukraine conflict, which triggered a global food and energy crisis wreaking havoc across the developing world.
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On their part, the US and China showed commendable strategic maturity in carefully managing their tensions over Taiwan, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific security architecture.
The year had no shortage of geopolitical shocks. In particular, two events on opposite ends of the Eurasian land mass, within months of each other, revealed the fragility of the international system. The first was Russia's brazen invasion of Ukraine, which shook the foundations of the post-Cold War order in Europe.
The implications for great power relations were stark. The war ended the Biden administration's hopes of achieving rapprochement with Moscow. Worse, Western military aid to Ukraine and unprecedented sanctions against Moscow reinforced a budding Sino-Russian alliance.
The conflict even came close to triggering a direct confrontation between the Nato and Russia. Ominously, Moscow appeared to threaten nuclear escalation amid massive battlefield setbacks.
But just as the war in eastern Europe descended into a quagmire, with Washington and Moscow carefully avoiding direct confrontation, another major conflict was almost triggered by outgoing US speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
Both before and after her controversial trip, the US and China expanded their military footprint and flexed their naval muscles across the Western Pacific. All of a sudden, an armed showdown between the two superpowers began to look inevitable.
The combination of three factors, however, ensured the potentially explosive year ended on a promising geopolitical note. With the prospect of great power conflict lurking, regional players began to sound the alarm bells and mediate between the superpowers.
Southeast Asian nations, which hosted back-to-back global summits last month, were at the forefront of such efforts. While lacking superpower military capabilities, key Asean members have emerged as "middle powers" by combining proactive diplomacy, strategic autonomy and geopolitical influence.
Singapore, which historically served as a bridge between Beijing and the West, repeatedly warned against the prospect of major superpower conflict. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had warned of a nuclear "arms race" and destructive cold war unless tensions were arrested by decisive diplomacy.
Heir-apparent Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong also nudged the superpowers towards dialogue lest they "sleepwalk into conflict". Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, meanwhile, zeroed in on the extreme disruption of what others have called a "digital iron curtain" amid US sanctions on China's semiconductor industry.
While Singaporeans engaged in frank and eloquent diplomacy, neighbouring Indonesia embarked on direct mediation. After years in geopolitical obscurity, Indonesian President Joko Widodo leveraged his Group of 20 presidency to try to personally negotiate a peace plan in Ukraine.
He proved far more successful, however, in nudging the US and China towards a detente on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali.
The meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping took place soon after Southeast Asian nations upgraded their strategic partnership with Washington during the 10th Asean-US summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. In response, a grateful Biden reassured his Asean counterparts that he would seek a working relationship with Beijing.
This brings us to the second important factor, namely the strategic maturity of both the US and China. No amount of Asean or middle-power diplomacy would have succeeded had Biden and Xi refused to focus on the big picture.
Fortunately, both leaders, who operated from relative positions of strength at home, embraced global statesmanship by acknowledging the need for managed competition over areas of inevitable differences and expanded cooperation over areas of shared concerns.
Focusing on shared concerns, especially in post-pandemic economic recovery and climate change, will sustain their fragile detente.
The final key factor is the convergence among Asean and the two superpowers on the need to prevent the Ukraine conflict from escalating. Both Biden and Xi categorically oppose any Russian nuclear escalation.
They also backed the strongly worded G20 and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) statements - largely reflecting the views of middle powers such as Indonesia - which condemned the invasion of Ukraine and called for a peaceful settlement. The upshot was the visible isolation of Russia.
The year showed that geopolitics is not only about the whims of a few elephants, but a reflection of the strategic proactivity of all players. Intent on avoiding another great power conflict in its backyard, Asean members stepped up to the plate and successfully nudged the superpowers to embrace global statesmanship and responsible competition instead.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of "Asia's New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific" and the forthcoming "Duterte's Rise"
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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