Since hitting a low of 3,577 on 12 October, down 25% since 1 January, the S&P 500 index has rallied by 12% to just over 4,000. The FTSE 100 index has rallied by 11%. It is barely down this year, but still 4% below its May 2018 peak. The yield on the US ten-year Treasury bond has fallen from 4.3% to 3.7% (reflecting a rebound in bond prices); the ten-year gilt yield has slipped from 4.5% to 3%.
Yet plenty of pundits are pessimistic, arguing that the bear market isn’t
