How Close Are We to Nuclear War?
On Tuesday, a missile landed in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine. Two people were killed in the blast. Their deaths were a direct consequence of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, though in the fog of war it was not immediately clear which side was to blame. Initial theories held that the missile had been fired by Russia at Ukraine and gone astray, though later U.S. intelligence suggested that it had instead been part of an interceptor fired by Ukraine at a Russian missile. Consensus has formed around the latter idea.
If Russia had indeed attacked Poland, the world might look very different today. Poland is a member of NATO, and a deliberate strike on one alliance member demands a response from all. A could have followed. And in that context, we must contemplate the extreme conclusion: Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, and that the Kremlin might use it.
