PredictIt Already Won
On Tuesday evening, I logged on to PredictIt, America’s favorite political-betting site, to watch the Election Night chaos ensue. People were betting on control of the Senate. People were betting on who’d be elected mayor of San José, California. People were betting on whether Donald Trump would file for another run at the presidency this year. The markets soared and plunged with roller-coaster volatility: User-generated odds on the Georgia Senate race flipped from 55 percent in favor of Herschel Walker to 62 percent in favor of Raphael Warnock in a matter of minutes. Odds of Democrats maintaining control of the Senate were 69 percent at 10:53 p.m., down 10 percentage points five minutes later, and back up 10 percentage points 15 minutes after that. But such is to be expected when you’re betting on
