I GDP could be regained within four years
I Remittances and exports boost currency reserves
I Inaction may force over half a million to emigrate
An economic recovery is possible if the government implements the crucial reforms required by donors and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). GDP growth could resume in 2023 and foreign currency reserves may increase again to $30 billion in four years. The personal wealth of the Lebanese and expat remittances can also contribute to this recovery. In the absence of reforms and of an agreement with the IMF, Lebanon will enter the club of failed states like Venezuela and Somalia.
GDP growth may resume
Real GDP is projected to grow by about three percent in 2022 driven by a strong recovery in tourism, particularly during the summer, according to a recent report by the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The growth, however, comes from a low base as nominal GDP for 2021 is estimated at just $23.4 billion. The IIF said in the report, titled ‘Lebanon: Mounting Challenges’, that according to its optimistic scenario, GDP growth could accelerate to about six percent in 2023 and eight percent in 2024 driven by a partial recovery in public consumption, and a surge in public investment and net exports. “In this optimistic scenario, Lebanon will be able to regain its GDP in USD terms within four years (that is rising from $23 billion in 2022 to $53 billion by 2026) supported by the
