| Household spending is improving
| Forecasts revised up on positive signs
| Key growth-driver products identified
Better-than-expected indicators
The World Bank has revised upwards its forecast for economic growth for last year. “In 2022, the economy continued to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Owing to better-than-expected high-frequency indicators data, we have revised our real GDP contraction estimate to 2.6 percent from a previous 5.4 percent for 2022,” the World Bank said in its ‘Macro Poverty Outlook 2023-Lebanon’. The improvement was noticed in private sector activity and a surge in tourist arrivals. “Subject to extraordinarily high uncertainty, real GDP is projected to contract by 0.5 percent in 2023. Our economic forecast pays heed to the persistent lack of political will for comprehensive reforms, and an institutional vacuum, both assumed to last throughout the whole of 2023,” the bank said. The four-year contraction in real GDP over 2018-2022 has wiped out more than 15 years of economic growth, according to the report. The government, the Central Bank, and other economic observers’ have wide differences in their forecast of growth. The government and the Central Bank (BDL) predict at least two to three percent growth.
GDP may grow five percent in 2023
The country returned to a slight positive GDP growth in 2022, according to Bank Audi, following a 33 percent contraction in the first two years of the crisis. “The Central Bank (BDL) and the government announced a two percent real GDP growth for the
