THE FERTILIZER WAR

RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE HAS EXACERBATED food shortages—already worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic—and shed light on global agriculture’s massive nutrient and energy needs. Most fertilizers are made from coal or natural gas, and Western sanctions on Russia, which is the world’s top fertilizer exporter, have further increased natural gas and fertilizer prices. In June, the cost of fertilizer nearly surpassed its August 2008 peak. As a result, farmers could be forced to reduce global fertilizer use by as much as 7 percent next season—the largest decline since 2008. Use is projected to fall the most in sub-Saharan Africa. In May, the president of the African Development Bank warned that fertilizer shortages could lead to a 20 percent decline in food production on the continent.

These fertilizer shortages are a burgeoning crisis: Reduced access to fertilizer can dramatically cut food output and devastate a national economy. After Sri Lanka suddenly banned the import and use of synthetic fertilizers in favor of organic alternatives in April 2021, its domestic rice production fell by at least 40 percent during the growing season that ended this March, and