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    Why is the Senate race between J.D. Vance and Tim Ryan in Ohio so close?

    LANDEN, Ohio — Former President Donald Trump won this state twice, each time by more than 8 percentage points. Judging by that record, you might think that J.D. Vance, the Republican venture capitalist and author Trump endorsed in the U.S. Senate race here, would be well ahead of Rep. Tim Ryan, his Democratic opponent. But polls say the race is close. FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregator, ...
    by Freddy Brewster, Los Angeles Times Sep 29, 2022 7 minutes
    Tim Ryan, D- Ohio, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks with Fox News during a rally in support of the Bartlett Maritime project, a proposal to build a submarine service facility for the U.S. Navy, on May 2, 2022, in Lorain, Ohio.

    LANDEN, Ohio — Former President Donald Trump won this state twice, each time by more than 8 percentage points.

    Judging by that record, you might think that J.D. Vance, the Republican venture capitalist and author Trump endorsed in the U.S. Senate race here, would be well ahead of Rep. Tim Ryan, his Democratic opponent.

    But polls say the race is close. FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregator, gives Ryan a 29% chance of pulling off the upset. Ryan leads in five of the last eight polls cited by FiveThirtyEight, but the margins are small and neither candidate has topped 50% in any of them, suggesting there is still a bloc of undecided voters.

    “I don’t believe that it is that tight,” Vance told the Los Angeles Times at the Perry County Gun Bash this month.

    The problem for Vance, and national Republicans, is that they really need to win this race to regain control of the Senate. The Senate is evenly divided, with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote for the Democratic caucus.

    In Ohio, the GOP is playing defense — the winner here will replace retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman.

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