When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the prices of agricultural commodities shot up. Wheat gained 59%, sunflower oil rose 30% and maize rose 23%. Both countries are major exporters of these crops, thanks to the belt of highly fertile chernozem (or “black earth”) that covers much of Ukraine and extends into Russia. Together, they accounted for 28% of globally-traded wheat, more than the US and Canada together, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil. Their share of global production is smaller, but as major exporters they are crucial in meeting international demand.
There were widespread fears about the impact this would have on global food supplies and the risk of widespread shortages, especially when prices of other crops grown elsewhere began to soar at the same time. Yet since then, prices have fallen back significantly, often to pre-war levels. In wheat, for example, strong exports from Brazil, Canada and the US help plug the gap. Much of the discussion about a food crisis has been replaced by concerns about the energy crisis, at least in wealthier economies.
Yet the risks haven’t gone away. Many of the underlying factors that drove the surge in prices remain highly concerning. Some predate Russia’s invasion, others have been exacerbated by
