Los Angeles Times

Why is it so hard to say if this is a recession?

A man walks past a "now hiring" sign posted outside of a restaurant in Arlington, Virginia on June 3, 2022. Job growth is one of the factors economists weigh in determining whether the economy is in recession. The U.S. job market has remained tight even as GDP has turned negative.

Economists were on high alert Thursday morning awaiting data from the U.S. Commerce Department that might shed light on whether the country is in a recession — a question with vast implications for consumers, employers and electoral politics.

The data showed gross domestic product declining at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter, after a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter. Back-to-back quarters of negative growth is one commonly used benchmark of recession.

That settles that, right?

Not quite.

Weighing against

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