There’s No Knowing What Will Happen When <em>Roe</em> Falls

Everything about the American abortion war has taken on an air of inevitability. The Supreme Court will reverse Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion decision establishing a constitutional right to end a pregnancy. The United States will divide along expected lines, with abortion broadly accessible in blue states and all but entirely criminalized in red states.

This narrative is not completely wrong. Twelve states have passed so-called trigger bans that will outlaw all or most abortions if Roe and Planned Parenthood v. Casey are overturned. At the same time, 16 states and the District of Columbia have policies guaranteeing abortion rights no matter what the Supreme Court decides.

But states in the middle of this spectrum—which have not made their preferences, and, perhaps more important, those states’ policies may evolve over time. The forces shaping a post- America may prove surprising, encouraging some states that currently restrict abortion to reverse course.