Was North Korea's recent weapons test to 'improve tactical nukes' a warning of Kim Jong-un's future nuclear capabilities?
North Korea's fresh missile tests last weekend have raised concerns among analysts about whether the isolated regime is eyeing an escalatory move such as a nuclear test in the coming months.
Pyongyang's state media reported on Sunday the military tested a new type of tactical guided weapon described to be of "great significance" in enhancing the operation of "tactical nukes".
The tests came a day before a visit to Seoul on Monday by the US envoy for North Korea, Sung Kim, and his deputy Jung Pak, for talks to address Pyongyang's increased missile launches and concerns over the possible resumption of nuclear testing.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
Their arrival coincided with the start of a nine-day annual joint military drill by US and South Korean troops.
The exercise is a "defensive command post training using computer simulation" and will not involve field manoeuvres by troops, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Sunday.
Analysts told This Week in Asia they feared Pyongyang's latest tests were the firmest indication yet it intended to arm its short and medium range missiles - already operational - with nuclear warheads.
Doing so, the observers said, would pose a severe threat not just to Seoul but to other nearby targets including Japan and the US territory of Guam.
"The North has made it clear it plans to arm its short-and medium-range missiles with not only conventional warheads but nuclear ones as well," Park Won-gon, professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University, said.
"This would drastically enhance the danger of a conflict in the region expanding easily into a nuclear war," he said.
The ballistic missiles appear to be KN-23 or KN-24 lineages that have been modified to be fit for multiple transporter erector launcher (TEL) tubes, according to analysts.
The official Korean Central News Agency said leader Kim Jong-un observed what it called the weapon's successful launch. It released a photo showing a beaming Kim clapping his hands with military officers.
"North Korea appears to indicate that they will use this system for tactical nuclear weapons delivery," said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Panda noted Kim's presence underscores the particular significance of this system being developed under his directions.
Tactical nuclear weapons that could be used on the battlefield are a key part of weaponry being developed under Kim's order despite dire economic situations.
First rolled out during a 2019 military parade, the KN-23 is known to conduct a "pull-up" manoeuvre in its terminal phase of flight, ensuring ensure it would be hard to intercept.
"It is quite dangerous to rest on the belief that the miniaturisation of nuclear warheads is still years away for the North to use them as tactical weapons on the battlefield," Professor Park said. He also noted state media in 2017 showed pictures of Kim standing next to what it claims was a miniaturised nuclear warhead.
That same year, the US Defense Intelligence Agency assessed Pyongyang had the ability shrink nuclear weapons including short-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Kim Jong-un in January 2021 said the country was able to "miniaturise, lighten and standardise nuclear weapons and to make them tactical ones" outlining goals of developing other weapons such as hypersonic missiles and spy satellites which have been tested this year.
Cheong Seong-chang at the think tank Sejong Institute said the North is likely to load nuclear warheads on the new missiles and deploy them in military units near the border with the South.
"The need for the North to conduct a test with a tactical nuclear warhead is now higher than ever before," Chang said, adding the North's seventh nuclear test week likely involve a tactical nuclear warhead.
Recent satellite imagery of North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site indicates work to restore Tunnel No. 3 to operational status continues, the website 38North said on Thursday.
If carried out, it would be the isolated country's first known nuclear test in four and half years.
Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong said this month Pyongyang would retaliate with nuclear strikes if South Korea launched a pre-emptive attack after South Korean Defence Minister Suh Wook told parliament the South was able to strike the North's missile launch points.
Saturday's test-fire came a day after the North celebrated the 110th anniversary of its founder and Kim Jong-un's grandfather Kim Il-sung's birthday.
The North's provocative acts are expected to continue in the coming months, which could include the 90th anniversary of its army on April 25, the inauguration of South Korea's new conservative government on May 10 and a South Korea-US summit expected to happen in late May, Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said.
"We will likely see a massive military parade and various tests by the North for developing a spy satellite, ICBMs, tactical and multiple nuclear missiles and submarine launched ballistic missiles," he said.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
Copyright (c) 2022. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
