Russia at G20: Debate on Indonesia's guest list hits crescendo with US, China, Australia remarks

A debate over G20 host Indonesia's decision to invite Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the annual summit later this year has hit a crescendo, with Western leaders including US President Joe Biden inclined to expel Russia, and China insisting Moscow is an important member of the forum.

As this year's G20 chair, Indonesia has found itself walking on eggshells as the global economic and development forum risks being weighed down by geopolitical rivalries exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Most of the West and its key Asian allies have condemned Moscow and imposed sanctions, while forum members China and India have not criticised President Vladimir Putin's actions.

Indonesia, which supported a United Nations resolution to condemn the invasion, has sought to keep the crisis off the G20 agenda.

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Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi on Monday said Jakarta would continue to listen to "all views and suggestions" from G20 members but reminded them that the forum was meant to be a "catalyst for the recovery of the pandemic and economic recovery".

Biden last week said if Indonesia and other G20 members did not agree to expel Russia, then Ukraine should be allowed to attend meetings, while Australian leader Scott Morrison, who is up for election in the coming months, said the idea of sitting with Putin at the summit was "a step too far". Former British Prime Minister David Cameron called for a boycott of the G20 summit in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last week.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a former vice-presidential adviser now with the Jakarta-based National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), said divisions among G20 members on whether to invite Russia or discuss the Ukraine crisis was a "challenge" for Indonesia. It would be a test of its "free and active" foreign policy, she said.

"The pressure [that Indonesia is facing] is to make sure that the G20 process doesn't get derailed because of the Ukrainian crisis. Indonesia has taken a position that it will invite all members of G20, including Russia. As a president, Indonesia has to bridge all of these differences and make sure that the G20 project itself can be saved," Dewi said.

Formal invitations to the summit in Bali have not been sent out, but the Indonesian government issued "save the date" notices to all members including Russia on February 22.

"I would argue that Indonesia's position at the moment is a difficult one, but it is the best way to go forward," Dewi added.

Divisions over how to treat Russia have dominated discussions locally and trickled down to officials involved in the suite of meetings ahead of the leaders' summit. Thomas Noto Suoneto, a foreign-policy analyst and part of B20 Indonesia, G20's business-focused dialogue forum, said concern was "not only felt at the government level, but also in our circle".

"The opposition [to Russia's participation] is also shown by other parties who are involved at the G20 as a whole. Some [delegations from the] Western countries already denied invitations to meetings if Russia also attended, and they're not politicians, so there is a 'top-to-bottom' apprehension," Suoneto said.

Opposition to Russia's inclusion is found in "all engagement groups and working groups", he added.

"That's why we asked the Foreign Ministry, 'how should we respond?' We have invited Russia to participate since last year, if we excluded them from the meetings, that would be unfair."

He added that there were also divisions in Jakarta's foreign policy circles about inviting Putin to the summit, although most seemed to agree with Jakarta's approach to preserving the G20 principle of multilateralism.

In an editorial on Monday, the English-language daily Jakarta Post said President Joko Widodo was navigating a "tricky situation".

"The government is facing a critical moment that requires unity within its ranks. There are ministers whose comments about Russia's participation and the possibility to raise the issue of the Ukraine crisis during the summit can upset other countries," it said.

Russia and Indonesia have close economic and defence ties even though trading volumes are relatively low. They recorded US$2.74 billion worth of bilateral trade last year, a far cry from the US$124.34 billion in trade between Indonesia and China.

Before the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, Russian tourists were among the biggest spenders at Indonesian tourist hotspots. State-owned energy firm Pertamina operates a joint venture with Moscow-headquartered energy company Rosneft to build a US$13.5 billion greenfield petrochemical complex in Tuban, East Java, and earlier this week expressed in interest in buying Russian crude oil supplies.

China, Indonesia's largest trade partner and second-largest foreign investor, began publicly lobbying Jakarta to keep the Ukraine crisis off the agenda earlier this month.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Retno on March 14 to convey Beijing's confidence that Jakarta would be able to "exclude interference" and push forward the forum's agenda, which focuses on global economic recovery, global health, climate change, and digital transformation. Both ministers are scheduled to meet in-person in Tunxi, in China's eastern Anhui province on Wednesday for a summit on humanitarian efforts for Afghanistan.

Two days later, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to Widodo, saying he was confident Indonesia would "maintain close communication and coordination with China to help the G20 focus its work on economic recovery and global development, and work concertedly to address pressing global issues".

While Southeast Asia's largest economy has held back from imposing sanctions on Russia, making its stance more aligned with China's position than with neighbouring Singapore, for example, at least one analyst has suggested that Jakarta considers how it can "encourage Beijing to distance itself from Moscow".

"Indonesia's reserves of coal and nickel alone provide China with ample reason to heed its messages. And if Widodo were to use his status within Asean, as well as his status as host of the G20, he would make more headway," wrote Kevin O'Rourke, author of the Indonesia-focused newsletter Reformasi, in the March 11 edition.

"He could, for example, attempt to enlist other nations important to China in a collective entreaty that urges Beijing to at least desist from some of the more radical courses of action that suddenly seem possible. Numerous countries in Asean and the Global South might follow Widodo, if he were to lead."

However, O'Rourke conceded that Widodo had long been "loathe to impose himself on other world leaders" despite Indonesia's size and influence.

Dewi of BRIN said it was unlikely that Jakarta would try to influence Beijing to shift its stance as "Indonesia doesn't like to be pressured by other countries, so it's not going to pressure a big country like China".

When it was time to make a decision on sending out formal invitations, Jakarta should look to how Asean had handled the complexity of managing Myanmar after its elected government was deposed in a coup by the military last year, she added.

The 10-nation bloc, which has an annually-rotating chairmanship, has excluded junta leaders from meetings and chosen to accept the presence of a non-political representative. This will be the case until progress is made in implementing a five-point consensus between the bloc and Naypyidaw, that includes the cessation of violence against civilians.

"When we have difficult problems in Myanmar, we continue to include Myanmar in Asean activities but do not invite the top leadership of the junta," Dewi said. "So I would argue if Indonesia is faced with that difficult position come November, the Asean example could be a good precedent."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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